Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 205 What kind of top-notch armchair strategist is this? (5.8k)

"Forget about being an advisor, I'll just observe for a while," Lin Ran said.

McNamara was somewhat disappointed upon hearing this.

In McNamara's mind, Lin Ran has always been a god-like figure.

In pure numbers and applied mathematics, he is unrivaled.

Many people are good at pure mathematics, but it usually takes time to adapt when switching from pure mathematics to applied fields.

Very few people can switch seamlessly like Lin Ran.

And those who can excel in both fields are even fewer.

Before the Göttingen miracle, McNamara had witnessed the miracle firsthand.

That is, NASA's on-site command of Gagarin's return to Earth, with calculation accuracy that was faster and more precise than IBM's mainframe computer cluster.

McNamara, who witnessed all of this from the observation room, kept shouting "oh my god!"

If it weren't for the fact that the war machine was in operation, his sensitive identity, travel restrictions, and the hassle of making temporary security arrangements, he would have flown there long ago after hearing about Lin Ran's speech in Göttingen.

After the media extensively reported on the Göttingen miracle, McNamara privately complained to Lin Ran about why he hadn't been told beforehand.

If he had known in advance, he would have definitely planned a week-long vacation to witness the miracle in person.

Therefore, after proving the twin prime conjecture on the spot, Lin Ran was no longer a god. In McNamara's view, he was God walking in the mathematical realm, an existence at a higher level than God.

Furthermore, Lin Ran is endorsed by the "MIT Radiation Lab Series," and he is targeting the Baiyue people, not China.

Therefore, McNamara extended the invitation without hesitation.

He not only believed that mathematics could guide warfare, but he was also a practitioner of it.

During World War II, he used statistics to analyze the effects of bombing neon. In the 1960s, McNamara even claimed that war could be visualized using specific quantitative indicators. In May 1962, he went to Baiyue and claimed that "every quantitative measurement shows that we are winning the war."

In some areas, McNamara is even a micro-management expert comparable to Baldy.

He insisted that all operational details of military personnel be quantitatively controlled. For example, for reconnaissance flights, he insisted that pilots follow strict "Times-Over-Targets" (TOT), which means that they must be carried out at the same time every day.

Yes, it sounds incredibly stupid. Wouldn't doing this increase the risk of your plane being shot down?
At first, the Baiyue people couldn't believe it and thought that America was playing a trick, mixing truth with falsehood.

As it turns out, the Americans were really that stupid, and kept following the micro-level instructions from their superiors.

This resulted in a series of aircraft being shot down, including Lieutenant Colonel Charles Cluthman, who was shot down and crashed on the Plain of Jars and was captured.

McNamara was a staunch believer in statistics when it came to warfare.

In the past, he believed that the reason his system failed was because his calculation ability was not strong enough.

I'll find the strongest person on Earth to help me calculate; I'm sure I won't lose!

McNamara thought about it a million times, but he never considered that his strategy might be flawed.

I used this strategy to blow up the neon lights to smithereens, how could I be wrong?
McNamara probably thought that the Baiyue region was larger and had more complex terrain, and that the American Empire had not personally intervened.

This time, not only will the "heavenly soldiers" personally participate, but I will also ask the professor to help me with the calculations.

Now that the factors that led to the failure have been resolved, we shouldn't lose now, right?

That was exactly what McNamara was planning.

Upon hearing this, Lin Ran shook his head and said, "I'm sorry, I don't want to get involved in the war."

However, I wouldn't mind observing your specific operational planning process when I come to the White House for my reporting visit.

Lin Ran didn't want to interfere, but he wanted the Americas in this timeline to go further down the path of data-driven development.

“Professor, why not take this opportunity? Let’s go see it now,” McNamara extended an invitation.

Lin Ran readily agreed.

Upon entering the operations room, one is greeted by a massive map of the Baiyue region and various statistical charts.

The map was covered with colorful pins, marking the front lines of both sides.

McNamara stood in front of the map, gesturing to Lin Ran as his gaze swept over each mark, attempting to glimpse the future of the war.

Lin Ran's appearance briefly paused the whispers in the operations room.

McNamara turned around, a warm smile spreading across his face, and extended his hand: "Professor, welcome. I'm glad you can witness firsthand how we use data to steer this war."

Lin Ran smiled and said, "McNamara, I'm just observing. The application of statistics in warfare is a fascinating topic."

McNamara led him to a map, pointing to an area covered in red pins. "This is our latest intelligence, showing YG activity in this area. We use this data to plan airstrikes and ground operations."

His voice was full of confidence.

If Lin Ran hadn't known about their rigid battle plan, he might have actually believed it.

"The amount of data is impressive. But I wonder how the sources of this intelligence can be verified? In the chaos of a war zone, the reliability of the data is a challenge."

McNamara stated firmly, "We have multiple channels: aerial reconnaissance, ground reports, and prisoner interrogations. We use cross-verification to ensure accuracy."

He pointed to a pile of printed papers on the side, "These are the latest casualty and supplies data, updated daily."

Lin Ran clapped his hands: "That's a great idea."

They want to use massive amounts of data to capture the essence of war.

Lin Ran thought to himself, "You guys must be buying up all the electronic calculators in China!"

Frankly speaking, if anyone else had been the Minister of Defense, China wouldn't have sold many calculators.

It was McNamara, in particular. Based on Lin Ran's real-life interactions with him and his understanding of him from historical records, he was certain that McNamara would provide every employee of the Department of Defense with one of General Electric's electronic calculators, even if they cost $10,000 each.

Having witnessed McNamara's operations room firsthand, Lin Ran was even more convinced of this.

He said, "Cross-validation is a good method."

However, in war, information is often fragmented and filled with noise.

Have you considered using statistical models to fill in the gaps or predict trends?

No, this amount of mathematical method isn't enough; we need to go a step further, Lin Ran thought.

McNamara's eyes lit up. The professor was indeed a kindred spirit to him. To use a Chinese proverb, this was a case of finding a soulmate amidst mountains and flowing water.
“We are using operations research to optimize logistics, such as linear programming, to allocate resources. But at the strategic level, we may need more sophisticated tools.”

He paused for a moment, then added, "That's why I invited you, Professor. I hope your expertise can point us in the right direction."

They continued their conversation, and McNamara showed Lin Ran a group of buzzing IBM computers with graphs displaying the number of enemy deaths on the screens.

“This is one of our core metrics,” McNamara said proudly. “By tracking YG’s casualties, we can determine whether our operations are effective.”

Lin Ran stared at the graph, his brows slightly furrowed, but inside he was already grinning.

The death toll? What can such a single indicator represent?
They wanted to use the death toll to reflect the overall progress of the war.

Do you intend to turn this into a never-ending war of attrition?

Besides, YG's strategy is guerrilla warfare, so the number of enemies is not the key factor at all.

Upon seeing this, Lin Ran thought to himself, McNamara is completely obsessed with statistics.

Even more Zhao Kuo than Zhao Kuo.

"Great job!" Lin Ran nodded slightly.

The officers in the operations room, who had long harbored resentment towards McNamara, exchanged bewildered glances.

Everyone surely knows who Lin Ran is.

They originally thought that Lin Ran would come to give McNamara a good refutation, since they believed that even the top mathematicians of the time could see the problem.

To their surprise, Lin Ran launched into a long, blatant boast. They were both impressed and inwardly marveled at his ability to thrive in the White House despite his Chinese heritage. His capacity for blatant lying was truly remarkable.

As for why they dared not oppose McNamara, it was because the other side was powerful and supported by multiple forces, making it something that ordinary employees like them dared not resist.

McNamara paused, his gaze shifting from the chart to Lin Ran's face: I was right after all! Even the professor thought so!
He went on to explain, "However, the reality is more complex than simple numbers suggest, but we need a quantifiable standard to demonstrate to Congress and the public that we are making progress."

McNamara paused, then added, "Data is the cornerstone of our decision-making."

Lin Ran nodded and said, "That's a great idea. I've always believed that data is more reliable than people! Also, you could try exploring other indicators, such as economic or social stability indicators, to more comprehensively assess the situation."

We should buy more portable calculators to set up more complex mathematical calculation models and richer data indicators for grassroots staff.

Lin Ran pondered that it had come to the point where he absolutely needed to buy a portable calculator.

McNamara sighed after listening and rubbed his temples. "The problem is that these indicators are difficult to measure. In a war zone, obtaining reliable economic data is almost impossible."

Lin Ran said, "Even so, I think it's worth trying."

Statistics excels at handling imperfect data. You can try using sampling surveys or proxy variables to estimate these indicators.

After a moment's thought, Lin Ran added, "For example, analyzing agricultural output or population movement through aerial reconnaissance photos."

McNamara nodded thoughtfully: "How can a sampling survey be conducted in an environment like Baiyue? That sounds very challenging."

Lin Ran smiled and explained, “I think we could try training local personnel to conduct small-scale investigations, or use intelligence data for indirect estimations. Of course, this requires innovation and rigorous analysis.” McNamara pondered for a moment, then said, “That sounds very promising. I’ll have my team research these methods.”

He turned to the analyst beside him and whispered a few instructions.

The conversation gradually shifted to technical details, with them discussing the application of Bayesian statistics in intelligence analysis and how to use decision theory to optimize strategic choices.

Lin Ran mentioned: "The Bayesian method allows us to dynamically update our hypotheses based on new data, which is especially suitable for the uncertainties in war zones."

McNamara nodded, a rare smile spreading across his face. "That's exactly what we need: a way to navigate through the fog."

At the end of the conversation, McNamara shook Lin Ran's hand and said sincerely, "Professor, your insights are invaluable. I hope we can continue to collaborate and explore more possibilities for the application of statistics in warfare."

Lin Ran smiled in response: "I'm sorry, Mr. President, my main task is at NASA, and I can't bear to see the battle reports."

What you see are numbers, but I think about the real people behind them.

I simply cannot be as indifferent to this.

In Chinese parlance, this is called treating human life as worthless; I cannot do that.

A look of grief appeared on Lin Ran's face.

After the archives related to this war were declassified by the White House, the Baiyue people denounced Lin Ran, feeling that the Chinese were too evil, pretending to be innocent while actually adding to the suffering of the Baiyue people.

However, in the eyes of the Baiyue people, the worst person was definitely McNamara, who, in a sense, almost single-handedly orchestrated the war.

Senator Wayne Morse called the war “McNamara’s War,” meaning that you started this war all by yourself.

Beginning in 1962, McNamara sent one field investigation team after another to Baiyue.

McNamara even came up with a plan to use the Air Force to spray herbicides on rice paddies in the Fuan Mountains in order to starve YG's top rotten business.

You like guerrilla warfare? Then I'll just cut off your supplies. McNamara was a ruthless man among ruthless men when it came to dealing with the Baiyue.

Herbicides were banned, but Agent Orange continued to be used in the Baiyue region. From 1962 to 1971, the American Air Force sprayed nearly 1900 million gallons of herbicides in Baiyue, of which at least 1100 million gallons were Agent Orange.
In the Gulf of Tonkin incident of 1964, the USS Maddox and another destroyer, the USS Turnerjoy, initially reported that they were attacked by Baiyue torpedo boats in international waters on a stormy night, but soon reported that there may not have been an attack.

McNamara exerted strong pressure on Herrick through Pacific Fleet Admiral Grant Sharp II, forcing him to admit that his ships had been attacked by torpedo boats.

McNamara then went to Congress, presented what he called evidence of attacks on naval vessels in international waters of the Gulf of Tonkin, and stated that Congress must pass the resolution as soon as possible.

However, McNamara actually misled Johnson about the so-called attack on the USS Maddox by concealing the advice of the Pacific Command commander against carrying out the airstrike.

Decades later, in 1995, McNamara met with the former Minister of Defense of Baiyue.

The other side claimed that the August 4th attack never happened, and McNamara eventually accepted this conclusion.

Of course, McNamara wanted to fight, but the interest groups were the core driving force behind it. He couldn't have done it on his own.

The war cost more than $2500 billion in total, which was $2500 billion for that era.

The parliamentary vote also demonstrates that this was a collective will; on the matter of attacking the Baiyue, only two members of parliament voted against it.

Lin Ran continued, "However, Mike, I must remind you that statistics is powerful, but it needs to be combined with intuition and domain knowledge to truly be effective."

Spring 1965
Thousands of spectators gathered under clear skies at Washington National Airport.

The flags of America and Soviet Russia flew side by side.

Gagarin, dressed in an astronaut uniform, stepped off the plane, smiled, and waved, to which the crowd erupted in enthusiastic cheers.

Cheers to welcome this space hero who was the first to set foot on the moon.

In the past, Kennedy did not allow him to visit America, but this time it was Lyndon Johnson's turn. Lyndon Johnson took the initiative to invite him to visit America.

This was all to showcase the peace-loving side of this White House administration.

As for fighting the Baiyue and quickly resolving the battle, that wouldn't be considered disrupting peace; it would be teaching the children a lesson.

After all, not long ago, in February of this year, YG attacked America’s airport in Poleku, killing eight American soldiers and destroying 10 aircraft.

Lyndon Johnson believed that their intervention was justified and their reasons were legitimate.

Standing on the podium, Gagarin spoke in English:

“Dear friends of America, it is my honor to stand before you today.”

Our journey to the moon was not just a victory for the Soviet Union or America; it was a victory for all humankind. Together, we transcended our differences and reached the stars.

I hope our cooperation in space will inspire peace and friendship on Earth, proving that even in difficult times, great things can be achieved when we are united.

The crowd responded with enthusiastic applause, moved by his sincerity.

Clearly, Washington, D.C., and the surrounding area are predominantly populated by progressive voters who tend to favor peace.

Lyndon Johnson then gave a speech:
"Today, we welcome Yuri Gagarin, the brave man who landed on the moon and has now come to our country."

His achievements, combined with America's wisdom, demonstrate what we can achieve through our joint efforts. America is proud of this collaboration, which showcases the power of science, determination, and the human spirit.

As we gaze at the stars, we also face challenges on Earth. Let this cooperation be a guiding light, leading us towards a future where nations are united through progress, not conflict.

His words were met with even more enthusiastic applause.

To the educated public, although the Soviets were the first to land on the moon, America's advantage in space technology was undeniable, and the guidance precision they demonstrated during the lunar landing was enough to terrify any country.

That evening, at a welcome dinner at the White House, Gagarin met Randolph Lin, whom he had long admired.

He immediately gave me a big hug: "Professor, thank you. I know very well that without you, I would probably be lying on the moon and never come back. Even the next person to land on the moon might not be able to bring my body back to Earth."

As an astronaut who designs his own spacecraft, he understands even more clearly what makes Lin Ran so amazing.

The Russian space agency later reviewed the incident repeatedly.

The radio channel was shared. When Lin Ran was directing Gagarin, the Russian Space Agency was also on the channel, and they recorded Lin Ran's commands.

Both the precision and timeliness of the command, as well as the subsequent review, deeply impressed the Soviet Union and Gagarin himself.

They definitely couldn't do it.

Gagarin was well aware of how much Lin Ran and NASA had helped him successfully return to Earth.

This is a life-saving grace.

Lin Ran smiled and said, "We can't just watch heroes sacrifice themselves."

When there were no media outlets around, Lin Ran was very blunt: "Korolev's approach was to disregard the lives of astronauts and go to the moon for the sake of going to the moon."

Even if you manage to get up there, based on your previous methods, what then?

Gagarin was somewhat embarrassed. He explained, "Professor, I fully understood the risks beforehand, and this was my own decision."

I am willing to give everything for the development of human spaceflight, even my life.

Lin Ran thought for a moment and realized that compared to the person in his future life who tragically died in 1968 when his MiG crashed near Kirzach during a routine flight training exercise with his flight instructor, he would have been much luckier even if the person had actually died during the moon landing.

There are even various rumors that Gagarin died in internal strife and that the KGB was behind it.

For Gagarin, sacrificing himself for human space exploration and dying in a training accident are both deaths, but their meanings are completely different.

Therefore, Lin Ran stopped worrying about it. At least he had avoided the worst-case scenario and the second-worst-case scenario. Humans landed on the moon and successfully returned to Earth. NASA and the White House were not even criticized too much because the people who landed on the moon were Soviet Russians.

This is already the best possible ending.

"Alright, congratulations to you and to me. We've created a miracle together, the miracle of humanity landing on the moon," Lin Ran said, raising his glass.

After clinking glasses with him, Gagarin said, "Then, Professor, I look forward to seeing you on Columbia Television tomorrow."

The lights were on in the CBS Washington studio, with the station's logo prominently displayed against the backdrop of this historic moment.

Gagarin and Lin Ran sat side by side. Although they came from opposing countries, they appeared remarkably harmonious to the viewers in front of their televisions.

Jiajia exuded an extraordinary blend of confidence and humility, as did Lin Ran.

No matter how many interviews he gave or how many times he appeared on television and in newspapers, people still couldn't help but sigh: Randolph is just too young.

He is not only younger than Washington politicians, but also younger than astronauts who are known for their youth and vigor.

In the studio, Cronkite conducted the interview, smiling and excited. He had never been so proud of his work, after all, he was interviewing a professor and Gagarin.

Any one of them, if chosen as a guest, would be enough to make the host's life worthwhile.

　Chapters 120 and 121 will be revised in the next couple of days.

　　
　
(End of this chapter)