Wind Rises in North America 1625

Chapter 462 Debate
On April 1, 1641, the golden rays of the setting sun slanted through the stained glass windows, casting diamond-shaped spots of light on the waxed oak floors, while the air was filled with the aroma of wine and the fresh taste of salmon soup.

In the reception room on the second floor of the Yongning Bay Colonization Area Office, Han Jian, the former colonization commissioner, was gripping the handle of a tin wine jug with his thumb. Amber wine, carrying sediment, poured down, creating fine bubbles at the bottom of a crystal glass that slowly rose up the glass.

He pushed a glass to Zheng Yuexin across from him, then tilted his head back and gulped down a large mouthful of wine. As his Adam's apple bobbed, the liquid dripped from the corner of his mouth onto the cotton shirt on his chest.

"Old Zheng, what do you think is the difference between Xinhua and Daming?" Han Jian suddenly asked, his voice tinged with alcohol and dissatisfaction.

Zheng Yuexin was picking up a piece of marinated salmon with his chopsticks when he heard this. He paused slightly, looked up, and smiled, "Why are you suddenly asking this?"

"I just feel..." Han Jian clicked his tongue, his fingers unconsciously tapping the rim of his glass, "We clearly have better opportunities, but we're always hesitant and timid."

Zheng Yuexin put down his chopsticks, picked up his wine glass, took a sip, and looked out the window at the distant bay.

In the darkness, the lights of several merchant ships rose and fell on the waves, like floating fireflies.

"You mean... the southward expansion?" he asked slowly.

"Otherwise what?" Han Jian scoffed. "Europe is in complete chaos right now. The Thirty Years' War has left the world in turmoil. The Spanish can barely take care of their own territory, let alone the Americas. If we make our move now and push our borders to what will become the US-Mexico border in the future, the Spanish won't dare utter a sound!"

Zheng Yuexin didn't rush to refute, but slowly peeled a peanut, put it in his mouth and chewed it before saying, "The central government has its own considerations."

"Consider my ass!" Han Jian slammed his hand on the table, making the cups and plates clatter. "It's too conservative! Once the war in Europe is over and the Spanish have recovered, if we want to expand again, we'll have to fight a real battle!"

Zheng Yuexin sighed and raised his hand to signal him to calm down: "Old Han, you and I both know that expansion is not simply about occupying territory. Logistics, governance, immigration, land reclamation, education, and defense—which of these doesn't take time to digest? If we rush forward now and the battle lines are stretched too thin, and the Spanish counterattack, we'll inevitably be entangled with them. This will ultimately delay our development speed!"

"Pull and pull?" Han Jian sneered. "You know what kind of people the Spanish army in the Americas is! They've been owed wages for six months, their equipment is outdated, what can they do besides bully Native Americans? Our muskets, artillery, training, and combat concepts are all superior to theirs."

"But what about our military strength?" Zheng Yuexin retorted. "Besides the 'Breaking Waves', the navy only has five 'Seagull-class' professional warships, three of which are still undergoing sea training and have not yet achieved combat capability. As for the army, how many troops does your Yongning Bay have now? Five hundred? One thousand? Even if you include the militia, you can only muster two thousand people at most."

"The Spanish have five or six thousand troops in Mexico, plus a large number of Indian auxiliary troops. Even if they are bad, if they are pushed to the limit and they use human wave tactics to overwhelm us, we will still suffer greatly. You should know that there is no absolute difference in weaponry between us and the Spanish."

Han Jian was speechless for a moment, then sullenly took a swig of wine before muttering, "We can't just let the opportunity slip away..."

Zheng Yuexin shook his head, his tone softening slightly: "It's not that the central government doesn't want to expand, but rather that it wants to proceed cautiously and steadily. First, consolidate the Ziwu River colony area, then develop Yongning Bay, and finally slowly infiltrate southward. Last year, we brought in over 24,000 immigrants from the Ming Dynasty. Just think about how many resources it would take to settle them. You're pushing southward recklessly; do you think our logistics lines can handle it?"

"The Spanish are riddled with internal conflicts. In addition to the frequent resistance from the Indians, there are also many conflicts between the Creoles and the Peninsulars. We can take advantage of this and slowly erode their strength through economic, cultural, and diplomatic means. Why must we confront them head-on and be in such a hurry?"

"But time waits for no one!" Han Jian scratched his head in frustration. "Old Zheng, don't forget, on the Ming side... the Battle of Songjin has already begun, and it won't be long before the Qing army reaches Shanhaiguan!"

"In the event that China is destroyed, shouldn't we, as the last refuge of the Han people, prepare for the worst? If we don't weaken the Spanish now, what if we want to send troops back to aid the Central Plains in the future, only to be stabbed in the back in the back? That would be truly disastrous!"

Zheng Yuexin remained silent for a moment, his gaze deep.

He was well aware of Han Jian's concerns.
However, the decisions made by the central government are ultimately beyond the control of these local officials.

“Old Han,” he finally spoke, his voice low and firm, “I understand your thoughts. But the central government’s considerations are more far-reaching. We are not the Ming Dynasty; we will not blindly expand for the sake of empty fame and prestige. Xinhua’s foundation lies in its system, technology, and the size and quality of its population, not simply the size of its territory.”

He paused, then raised his glass: "Only by taking steady and solid steps can we go further."

Han Jian stared at him for a few seconds, then suddenly chuckled, raised his glass, and clinked it heavily against his.

"Alright, I'm out of office now, so what happens to Yongning Bay is your business." He tilted his head back and downed his drink in one gulp, wiping his mouth. "But Lao Zheng, I'll say it again: opportunities are fleeting. Don't wait until you regret it to realize you were too conservative back then."

Zheng Yuexin smiled and didn't refute further.

He received his appointment from the central government in February, requesting him to come to Yongning Bay to replace the always "troublemaking" colonization commissioner and to take charge of advancing the next phase of the "Southward Expansion Plan".

According to the overall plan of the central government, Yongning Bay will take "stability" as the keynote and "practicality" as the principle in the next expansion process, and increase the development of the central valley. In the next five to ten years, it will be built into the most important agricultural production area in Xinhua.

In addition to large-scale planting of grain crops such as wheat and corn, it is also necessary to appropriately promote the planting of cotton to provide the raw materials needed for the gradually developing Xinhua cotton textile industry.

As for territorial expansion, it is possible, but we must be cautious and not push the Spanish too far.

It is best to keep the southern border below 34 degrees north latitude for the time being, and maintain a certain buffer zone with the Spanish. First, fill Yongning Bay and the Central Valley with people.

After several years of dedicated development, with 50,000 to 60,000 immigrants and a solid foundation for agricultural production, further southward expansion will be a natural progression.

Otherwise, if you build colonies right on Spain's doorstep, wouldn't that force them to turn against you?
Even a clay figure has some temper, let alone the proud and arrogant Spaniard!

As time travelers, no one understands the general trend of world history better than them.

Even after the Thirty Years' War ended in Europe, the Kingdom of Spain was never at peace. The Catalan War of Independence, the Portuguese War of Independence, the Anglo-Spanish Caribbean War, and the turbulent Italian Rebellion kept the Spanish busy and continuously depleted its already extremely weak national strength.

It can be said that during the Thirty Years' War, after Spain was repeatedly beaten by European powers such as the Netherlands, Sweden, and France, its army and navy suffered heavy losses, and the whole country never recovered and never "stood up" again.

After the War of the Spanish Succession, it completely withdrew from the stage of great powers and officially became a second-rate country.

Therefore, for Xinhua, time is always on their side; the Spanish will only get weaker and weaker and will not pose any threat to Xinhua at all.

Even in the mid-to-late 18th century, the Spanish did not engage in any substantial colonial development of the California region. Had it not been for their fear of British and Russian colonization of the West Coast (Russia colonizing Alaska and Britain colonizing Oregon), the Spanish would not have even glanced north.

But Han Jian, on the other hand, keeps causing trouble and pulling off big stunts in Yongning Bay.

Two years ago, after receiving news of their discovery of a gold mine in the inland valley, the central government issued a strict order requiring the colonies to seal off the gold mine to prevent the news from leaking out and attracting the covetousness of the Spanish.

However, in February of last year, news of the gold mine unexpectedly spread, becoming known not only to everyone on Qiming Island but also to the Spanish in Mexico.

Needless to say, this news must have been leaked by Yongning Bay itself; otherwise, how could they know the exact location of the gold mine and its output so clearly?

What does this mean?
It was clearly an attempt to entice the Spanish!
Look, I've discovered a gold mine with abundant reserves. Do you Spaniards want it?
Come and grab one!
The Xinhua Central Government had always been very cautious in its colonization and development in California. In order to avoid attracting the attention of the Spanish, the first few outposts were located deep in Yongning Bay, just to avoid exposing Xinhua's ambitions for colonization too early.

However, after taking office, Han Jian directly established the Bay Colonization Point at the mouth of the bay where the original San Francisco was located. He also moved the administrative center of the colonization area from Yongning (now Oakland) to this stronghold named Yuzhou, making a great show of it, as if he was afraid that the Spanish would not know that the new Chinese had arrived.

Last August, he even established a stronghold in Xiling Bay – Xiling Fort (now Monterey), just a step away from the colonization boundary line drawn by the Central Government.

This move further fueled the Zhongshu's dissatisfaction with him.

To prevent the Spanish from taking risks for the gold mines, the Central Government had no choice but to comply with the military's request to expand the army by two mixed battalions, increasing the size of the army to two thousand men.

At the same time, an under-strength reserve battalion was transferred to Yongning Bay as a precaution.

At the meeting held in January this year, in addition to the announcement of the Central Secretariat, several "colonization commissioners" who were far from the headquarters were also replaced.

Han Jian was unsurprisingly replaced and sent to the newly established Luzon colony to prevent him from doing anything radical that could provoke conflict with the Spanish and disrupt the current stable development.

Just as Zheng Yuexin was handing over the affairs of the Northern Administrative Office to the new commissioner, in mid-March, the central government dispatched a fast liaison ship to urgently summon him back to Shixing City, ordering him to immediately go to the Yongning Bay Colonization Area to take over the post.

Because Han Jian caused another "trouble" just before he was about to leave.

He sent a geographical exploration team south to explore the coastal terrain and ocean currents, but the ships encountered a "malfunction" and had to sail to San Diego Bay, where they stopped on the shore less than five kilometers from the Spanish colonial outpost, set up a temporary camp, and waited for rescue from the mainland.

According to reports from Yongning Bay, the exploration team was dispatched on February 9, but the central government did not receive the report until March 16, a full month later.

Given the speed at which the Spanish could transmit information, the Mexican colonial authorities must have already learned of this.

Without a doubt, the Spanish would not tolerate such a high-profile incident. Even the most prudent officials would not hesitate to send troops to expel or capture the Xinhua exploration team.

The Spanish could pretend not to see the new Chinese settlers and immigrants in California, since it was too far from Mexico and taking strong measures would be difficult for them.

But this time, the new Chinese have come right under the noses of the Spanish colonial strongholds. It's no longer acceptable to pretend they're blind.

If the Madrid court were to learn that the colonial authorities were not taking a firm stance against the infidel invasion, but instead were retreating step by step, then the governor's term as governor would likely be over.

"The problem is, by sending two warships to bring that exploration team back, you are undoubtedly showing weakness to the Spanish!" Han Jian exhaled a breath of alcohol and looked at Zheng Yuexin with great dissatisfaction. "Hmph, it's as if we Xinhua are afraid of them."

"Old Han, do you really want us to fight a war with Spain?" Zheng Yuexin asked in a deep voice. "You should know that starting a war is easy, but ending a war is very difficult!"

"How difficult is it?" Han Jian scoffed. "As long as we defeat the Spanish and leave them with no resources, they will naturally seek an end to the war from Xinhua."

“Sigh!” Zheng Yuexin raised his glass and drank it all in one gulp, looking at him with a complicated expression. “War is always full of uncertainty. Pre-war estimates are often biased, even seriously flawed. Moreover, unexpected consequences often occur during the war, which render all pre-war expectations and calculations meaningless.”

"If it were a decade or two ago, facing a weak Spaniard, I would have done the same as you, strongly advocating for the southward expansion plan and launching a war against the Spanish. But as the founders and builders of this country, we cannot be so impulsive. We must have a clear understanding of how large the war will be, how much it will cost, how long it will last, and how strong the enemy's will to resist will be."

"First of all, we cannot know in advance how fierce the resistance our opponents will put up. If we unilaterally believe that our country and people are superior to potential enemies, we may become complacent and underestimate our opponents. As the art of war says, 'A general should consider defeat before victory, so that he can win every battle.' We should not underestimate the strength of the Spanish counterattack."

"Furthermore, once war breaks out, the sunk cost problem we are familiar with will always come up. When we suffer losses on the battlefield, we will want to gain enough benefits to prove that the sacrifices we have made were worthwhile. If there are continuous losses, sunk costs will continue to be generated, which will create a gambler's mentality, making us want to recover those sunk costs more and more, prompting us to expand the war objectives in order to obtain benefits commensurate with the increasing losses."

"As the scale and intensity of war increase, adversaries tend to become more assertive and their negotiating ability declines. Anyone who dares to suggest the possibility of compromise may be denounced as a traitor. Even if negotiations begin, neither side will trust each other enough to reach an agreement."

"Therefore, it is easy to start a war, but difficult to end it. It is not something that can be easily decided by a few people or a few words."

"Old Zheng, aren't you overestimating the Spanish a bit?" Han Jian said with a smile. "The Spanish have bet all their money on the European continent, so they can't raise many chips in the Americas."

"Do you think Xinhua has a lot of leverage?" Zheng Yuexin was speechless at his stubborn attitude.

“Therefore, we need to snatch more chips from the Spaniards.” Han Jian’s eyes were filled with eagerness. “Only then will we have a place at the Ming Dynasty’s table.”

"Since we're going to be at the Ming Dynasty's table, we can't afford to get bogged down in the Spanish Americas at this time," Zheng Yuexin said solemnly. "You want to launch a maximum strike against the Spanish before China sinks, weakening their military strength so you can focus on dealing with the Ming Dynasty's crisis. But have you considered what will happen if we get bogged down in a stalemate with the Spanish and can't force them to surrender? How will we deal with the Qing army when they enter the pass?"

"No way! The Spanish aren't that crazy, nor do they have the strength to fight a war with us that lasts for years."

"What if?"

Han Jian stared at the swirling liquid in his glass, remained silent for a long time, and then gently shook his head: "It shouldn't be that bad."
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(End of this chapter)