Nanyang 1931: From piglets to giants

Chapter 133 Penang’s Population Crisis

1936 was a year of frequent major events both internationally and domestically.

Shortly after the 226 coup, on March 3, Germany blatantly violated the Treaty of Versailles and entered the Rhineland.

One in the East and one in the West, the two Axis powers began to challenge the old world order at the same time.

On May 5, Italy captured the Ethiopian capital and Ethiopia was destroyed.

The curtain of World War II has quietly begun, but the vast majority of mediocre people behind the curtain are still numb and unaware.

Zheng Yi, however, has basically entered a state of preparation for war, although no one in Penang knows that there will be a war except him.

Two months later, around mid-May, Zheng Yi finally received news from Toyota. Kiichiro Toyota and Risaburo Toyota had publicly broken up.

It is said that the incident was extremely serious. The two people who were once the closest comrades-in-arms published announcements in the newspapers to sever ties with each other and never have any contact with each other again.

According to gossip, the breakup between the two almost reached the point where they started shooting at each other and it was an either-or situation.

Of course, not many people paid attention to this matter in Japan, which had just experienced the February 26 Incident and the whole society was still in turmoil.

That month, the Toyota Group officially split. Kiichiro Toyoda took Toyota's factories, large equipment, and inventory, and established a newly established R&D department to form Toyota Motor. He did not take the deposits and chose to use bank loans to build Toyota Motor and manufacture engines.

Originally, Toyota manufactured engines, and objectively speaking, because they were new products, their sales were not very good. However, Kiichiro Toyoda took a gamble and started taking out loans to build a car factory.

Toyoda Risaburo took away Toyota's old technical workers, middle-level management team, a large number of large and small machine tools, and all the deposits of the Toyota Group, saying that he wanted to find another land to build a new Toyota factory and change its name to Toyota Boshoku.

Naturally, he searched and searched and finally came to Penang.

Toyoda Risaburo actually brought out 20 million US dollars, 4,000 machine tools of various types, and 7,000 Japanese employees in one go, most of whom were technicians, not including their families.

In fact, except for the separated engine business, almost the entire Toyota has moved here.

Although according to later experience, the part that was separated to make the engine is the essence of Toyota.

When Toyoda Risaburo arrived, Zheng Yi was inspecting the work in the tunnel. He only arranged for Mr. Tan Kah Kee and Lin Shaoliang to greet him and make arrangements. They helped him, his employees and the machines to be arranged before they came to greet Zheng Yi.

Zheng Yi invited him to come down and strolled in the tunnel with a large group of followers as if he was strolling in the garden.

"Is everything arranged?"

"Okay, thank you Mr. Zheng for your trouble."

Unexpectedly, Toyota Risaburo could actually speak Chinese. Although he spoke with a distinct Japanese accent, it was not a problem for him to communicate normally.

As early as two months ago, when Kiichiro Toyoda just returned to Japan, Zheng Yi was making preparations for them.

Before the two Toyotas quarreled, he had already arranged for the new city to level the land, build factories, and provide water and electricity. The Japanese community also specially built a Toyota community for them.

Lin Shaoliang and Qian Qiwen did all the work personally. Although it was impossible to build the factory and the community directly within three months,
But temporarily placing the machines is not a big problem, and with sufficient water and electricity, it should not take long for production to start.
In order to promote the spirit of mutual help among Japanese expatriates, these Japanese workers who came here together temporarily stayed in the homes of other Japanese expatriates.

During this extraordinary period, Penang is indeed in a bit of a difficult situation. The main reason is that the old city is too crowded, and the new city cannot be built in a short time. In order to carry out the construction, Zheng Yi and the entire Penang city management are overwhelmed.

"Is Kiichiro Toyoda's son, your nephew, also here with you?"

"Yes, Ichiro specifically asked me to bring Zhang Yilang here. He told me that he and Mr. Zheng are very good friends."

Zheng Yi smiled and said, "I wouldn't say it's excellent, but since you're willing to move to Penang, I will naturally treat you with all my heart and do my best."

“However, Penang’s main problem at the moment is still congestion and housing. Ultimately, it is due to our rapid development. There is really no way around it. We have to wait a few years before we can solve everyone’s housing problems.”

Zheng Yi offered Toyota Risaburo a cigar and said, "There are already 214 construction sites in Penang.

If we include Malay and Indian illegal workers, there are as many as 500,000 to 600,000 construction workers on construction sites alone."

"And it's still expanding, constantly starting new construction sites. Do you know how much money I've loaned out to construction companies alone? Seven million US dollars."

"Mr. Zheng, are there any other businesses in the banking industry?"

"Well, I bought shares in OCBC Bank and am now a major shareholder. The main reason is that the bank deposits are insufficient, so I have to use all my principal to borrow money. Hahahaha, there is nothing I can do. Everything is a mess. I am sorry to embarrass you."

"No, no, Penang is thriving. Although many people have no houses to live in, they know they are building their own houses with their own hands. I see happy smiles on everyone's faces."

"Mr. Zheng, you are truly a genius. I heard that Penang was just a small county town with a population of over 300,000 before. It has been built to this level in just three years. It is truly a miracle.

I believe that before long, Penang will become a more prosperous and large city cluster than Tokyo and Shanghai, but..."

"Mr. Toyota, do you have any concerns?"

"Mr. Zheng, Toyota makes textile machines. I know you are the world's chemical fiber king, but the textile industry is ultimately a labor-intensive industry.
In the future, we can either cooperate and open our own textile mills, or just sell machines and chemical fibers and let others open textile mills.”

"Textiles, after all, require people and land. Penang has limited land and a limited population. Can it support such a large textile industry?"

Zheng Yi nodded and said, "Take your time. I also know that if we really want to develop the textile industry on a large scale, we will need tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of people working in the industry.
Penang is ultimately just a city, and an island at that, so its development potential has a ceiling.”

"But there's no reason why all the textile machines you produce should be consumed internally in Penang. Penang only produces high-end materials like chemical fibers. Well... although in a few decades, they might become low-end materials."

"The entire Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Malacca, Kuala Lumpur, and even Semarang, Vientiane, and Yangon, where there are Chinese people, can buy our textile machines and open our textile factories. We can also export to the United States."

"It's not that easy to reach a production bottleneck. Once this batch of urban construction work in Penang is completed, a large number of construction workers will be out of work. The textile factory will be a good place to absorb employment."

"That's...ok."

Toyota Risaburo nodded. He had just arrived and it was not appropriate for him to find fault in a hurry. Moreover, in extraordinary times, it was already difficult for a company to survive, let alone develop.
Penang’s development potential is indeed small, and there is nothing that can be done about it.

From a global perspective, the development of the textile industry is the source of industrialization for most countries, which is equivalent to a novice village copy.

Of course, Penang is a bit strange. It started with oil first and then chemical industry. This thing could be called the jewel in the crown of industrial production eighty years later, let alone now. It has been completely backwards.

If the textile industry wants to develop well enough, population potential is the foundation of everything.

The two major textile industry powers at present, Japan and the United States, are both populous countries. The population of the United States is over 130 million, and that of Japan is over 60 million. If the Korean Peninsula and Manchukuo in Northeast China are included, the population would be even higher.

Only a country with a large population can support the textile industry. You should know that the number of people employed in the textile industry in the United States and Japan alone is in the millions. The number of people working in the textile industry is more than the current labor force in Penang.

Moreover, only a sufficiently large demand for clothing and cloth can support a sufficiently large-scale textile industry.

Although fabric can be exported, overseas markets are often volatile and shipping costs are high, and fabric is not an expensive item.

Although synthetic fabrics are very expensive now, Toyota Risaburo saw clearly that the price of this thing will fall sooner or later, and it will fall lower and lower.

If Penang’s own textile industry fails to develop, Toyota will have to rely on exports.

It is certainly right to rely on exports, but if we only rely on exports, the market fluctuations will be too great, especially for industrial parts that really support factories in the long run, which are ultimately a bit lacking in stability.

Toyota Boshoku is the world's largest textile machinery factory.

What he has moved here now are the best. Even if we don't consider development, it would be difficult to maintain the large-scale textile machinery he had in Japan if he relied entirely on exports.

Zheng Yi saw his concerns and knew that he was new and embarrassed to speak out, so he didn't speak frankly. So he simply said:

"In Southeast Asia, the upper limit of population potential is indeed too low. Take Penang, for example. Right now, the biggest bottleneck for development is land and housing."

“Penang itself is small. Even if it continues to expand, the island is still not that big. The usable land area is at most one-third of Singapore’s.”

“However, no matter what, we can still find a way to solve the land problem. After all, only about one-tenth of the entire Penang Island has been developed.

Even if that doesn't work, we can still reclaim land, or simply dig up the Penang Mountain Range, which occupies more than half of the island, and then hollow out the Penang Mountain area and reclaim land around it. As long as someone has the money, it's not impossible."

“But population is definitely a drawback. There are only about 10 million Chinese in Southeast Asia. Before I came to Malaya, the total population of Malaya was only about 3 to 4 million, including Singapore.

Moreover, most of the Chinese in Malacca are native Chinese who cannot speak Chinese. Although the wealthy and elite among these native Chinese have come to Penang to buy property, most of the native Chinese still stay in Malacca and are unlikely to come to Penang.

The total population potential is capped at three million, but now, Penang alone has a population of over three million, or even close to four million.”

Of course, Malaya’s total population of four to five million refers to the majority of young and middle-aged people and the labor force. Zheng Yi’s three to four million is because most Penang people have already brought their wives and children over.

If I didn’t bring my wife and children here, Penang’s population would be just over one million, less than two million.

But despite this, it can be said that almost all the Chinese who could survive in Malaya, and even in most of Southeast Asia, were lured here by him.

Kuala Lumpur, a prosperous Chinese city, was almost drained of its resources by him. Even Singapore had almost half of its population sucked away by him.

The Chinese in Southeast Asia are now reluctant to do even their old trade of tapping rubber and mining tin. Many mines and plantations have been handed back to the Indians, who are now employed in large numbers.

Mining tin is not as profitable as working as a construction worker in Penang, so what is the point of mining tin?

But he is so good at squandering money that he has already taken care of his wife and children in China, which is only about three or four million.

If things continue to develop normally, Penang’s population will reach its limit.

Even the population of Malaya as a whole has reached its limit.

Even if we ignore the issue of the British not allowing the Chinese to grow crops, even if everyone planted crops, the Malay Peninsula would still not be self-sufficient in food.

Modern Malaysia's food self-sufficiency rate is only around 30 percent. With World War II approaching, maritime shipping would be inconvenient. If food imports were to become a problem, Malaysia would be doomed.

Toyoda Risaburo: "With a population of three to four million, even if there are two million laborers, it would be difficult for the number of people who can be used for the textile industry to exceed 500,000.

"With 500,000 people employed in the local textile industry, it's probably a bit far off for you, Mr. Zheng, to lead the world textile industry."

"What's more, Mr. Zheng, you are the world's king of chemical fibers. When I first settled in the new city of Penang in the north, I discovered that there were four large-scale oil refining and chemical plants already under construction."

Zheng Yi: "Yes, you are neighbors. I have added a chlorination process to these four new factories, which can produce hard plastics on a large scale.

It can be used as raw material for your textile machines. You are an expert in the field of textile machines, and you must know more about the applications of plastics in textile machines than I do."

Toyoda Risaburo: "I heard that these are all super factories worth tens of millions of dollars, making a fortune every day. The chemical fiber production of these four factories..."

Zheng Yi: "The annual output of chemical fiber... including the three old plants, is over 3 million tons. The post-chemical production has improved compared to the previous three plants, and each has its own focus."

Kiichiro Toyoda did a rough calculation and said, "Three million tons of chemical fiber is equivalent to more than 40 acres, or nearly two million mu, of cotton fields. Based on a 63-gauge, -inch stitch count, this can produce approximately billion meters of cloth."

Zheng Yi was stunned: "How much?"

"Forty billion meters."

"Did you miscalculate, four hundred, billion?"

Toyota Risaburo: "That's for sure. This is an underestimation. They are all pure spun. If they were blended, the amount would be much higher."

Zheng Yi: “…………”

Four hundred...billion?

How many people are there in the world?
Only about two or three billion, right?
In other words, this amount of chemical fiber is almost enough to meet the needs of the whole world, and each person consumes about 20 meters of cloth per year?

Of course, chemical fiber can also be used in military and industrial applications, but if it is really put into production, the price of chemical fiber will definitely be lowered.

Toyoda Risaburo: "So far, chemical fiber is still almost our only monopoly business. At least for a few years, profits will be guaranteed. At most, they will not be as huge."

"Ah."

There is definitely profit, and there is no problem of saturation. In Zheng Yi's previous life, the global annual production of chemical fiber had already exceeded 100 million tons. China alone produced nearly 70 million tons, and he had never heard of any unsold products.

Toyoda Risaburo: "The most profitable period for chemical fiber has probably been in the past few years. I have discovered that in addition to being used for weaving cloth, it also has excellent properties in terms of dustproofing, corrosion resistance, sun protection, and waterproofing."

"The prospects for industrial and military applications are enormous. However, the production volume is still there. And as far as I know, Shell, Persian Oil, Standard Oil, and Gulf Oil are all trying to break away from Mr. Zheng and have built new cracking plants in their home countries."

"Mr. Zheng, although we are still able to dominate the chemical fiber market, I'm afraid that may not be the case in the future.
Penang's geographical conditions are there. Each of the seven oil companies has built a refinery here, but it is unlikely that they will build a second one."

"In other words, Mr. Zheng, I estimate that the huge profits from chemical fibers will only last for seven or eight years at most. Conservatively, it will drop within five years."

"Yes, that's true."

The output is here. You can't expect the global population to produce more than ten meters of fabric per capita, and then sell dozens of meters of fabric as luxury goods. This is unrealistic.

Toyoda Risaburo: "So, Mr. Zheng, if you want to maximize your profits, you only have a few years left. Within these few years, we will be able to weave chemical fibers into cloth, become a unique business, and earn huge profits. After a few years, this opportunity will no longer exist."

“However… the gap between the production of several million tons of chemical fiber and the current number of people working in the textile industry in Penang is quite large. If we cannot absorb a large number of people into the textile industry in a short period of time,

Then... you can certainly sell chemical fibers, and I can design specialized textile machines based on the characteristics of different chemical fibers."

"However, sir, if you can monopolize an entire industrial chain, the profits generated will be far different from if you only monopolize most of it, missing this last link."

Zheng Yi: "Well, you have a point. I don't want to monopolize everything, but at least I can take every bite."

If it were due to other factors, it would be fine, but if Zheng Yi was unable to swallow this piece of fat meat whole because of population, he would also feel a little unwilling.

After all, his golden finger for time travel is used up one by one.

There may not even be much left, so he will just get involved in petroleum and petrochemicals.

Any technology is most valuable only when it first comes out. If his technology fails to make enough money in the next few years, then he will lose money.

"I understand. I'll think of a solution. But don't worry. Those chemical plants will take at least two years to complete and start production. The construction of Penang New Town will also take about the same amount of time."

In fact, it is not just the textile industry. This labor-intensive industry is now facing a population bottleneck. Zheng Yi is also increasingly feeling the pressure brought to him by insufficient population in many other industries.

In the new city, the construction of four chemical plants has not even started yet, but the construction site is already seriously short of manpower.

When the Penang petrochemical plant was built two years ago, everyone was united, everyone was working hard, working day and night, and hundreds of thousands of people were busy building it on the construction site.

Now, although Penang has a population of three million, it does not even have enough construction workers to build houses. The number of construction workers for these four chemical plants is far from comparable to the previous three.

Naturally, it is impossible to work day and night. Zheng Yi said that two years would be fast to finish the work. If the number of construction workers cannot be increased, even three years will be difficult.

In fact, the various factories in Penang are quite profitable. Even traditional businessmen like Zhang Yucai, who used to only know how to exploit pigs, now have a cement factory in the east and a construction team in the city, and they don’t have to worry about making money.

However, every company is now facing some obstacles in expanding production. The internal investment promotion in Xincheng is slightly below expectations. Zheng Yi has also asked about it, and the most direct reason is that there are not enough workers.

This is also one of the reasons why wages in Penang are getting higher and higher.

In the final analysis, Penang is now engaged in chemical industry, steel, ship repair, machinery, and even military industry. It is a pure heavy industry city.

If you also want to meet the needs of urban supporting facilities, or even want to develop a proper full industrial chain and engage in light industry and commerce.

This is far more than the population of just over three million.

Of course, historically, after 1937, the Chinese population in Southeast Asia will experience a surge, but Zheng Yi estimates that if Zheng Yi does not take the initiative to do something, the population will probably reach its peak when it reaches five or six million.

Chinese people are still relatively attached to their land. Unless they can't survive, no one will leave their hometown to go overseas.

There are indeed many refugees in the northern region, but all of them go west. No one would take the initiative to go to Southeast Asia. So many people died of starvation in the Shandong famine, but not a single one of them went to Southeast Asia.

Objectively speaking, there is a big difference between the southern accent and the northern accent. About two-thirds of the Chinese in Southeast Asia do not speak Mandarin. If a northerner also has an accent, then his life here will not be much easier than that of a Japanese.

To solve the problem of shortage of manpower, the best solution is of course to move out of Penang and operate other forces, such as Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. In fact, he can completely build light industries, such as textile factories, in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.

Unfortunately, it’s not suitable as World War II is approaching.

He was confident that he could hold Penang against the Japanese attack, but outside of Penang, he was powerless.

In terms of geographical location, Singapore is of course better. It is larger than Penang and even Penang Island, and it is easy to defend and difficult to attack. The Gibraltar of the East is no joke.

But the problem is that Singapore is a direct colony of the British Crown. Unless he fights a real battle with the British Far East Fleet, it will be impossible for him to gain control of Singapore, even if it is just a simple commercial investment.

Britain's performance in World War II was truly appalling.

The 120,000 British troops stationed in Singapore, a world-class military fortress known as the Gibraltar of the East, were captured by 60,000 Japanese troops in 72 hours.

It's really a waste.

Unless he can make these 120,000 British troops obey his command and take over the command power, otherwise, if he is asked to open a factory in Singapore, no matter how many factories he opens, it will be equivalent to giving them to the Japanese.

If this is the case in Singapore, I would be even more reluctant to invest in other places.

Let’s talk about expansion after World War II. There will be plenty of opportunities after World War II.

Then there are only two options before him. Either, he can take the initiative to find a way to relocate the domestic population. Since Penang cannot accommodate them for the time being, he can arrange for them to go to Perlis first.

But one is that if people from the north come here, it will be a problem for them to integrate into the country. Moreover, shipping in the north is not well developed, and it is difficult to build ships, so people from the north will not go out to sea easily.

As for the people from Fujian and Guangdong, even if they migrated on a large scale, they would not be able to get through Nanjing. He had fallen out with Nanjing, and Chen Jiageng and Chen Yi had been quarreling with each other in the newspapers for more than a month. Would his people still dare to go to Fujian to recruit people on a large scale?

In the end, it seems like they still have to use the old Nanyang Chinese method: buy piglets and entrust the recruitment task to the Hongmen and Qing Gang in China.

Zheng Yi was very opposed to this.

Alternatively, use a large number of Malays and Indians.

In fact, textile factories can be set up in Kedah and Perak. If the Japanese come, the worst that can happen is that they have to move, as they are close anyway.

And no matter how he increases the population, food is the prerequisite for population. If he cannot get food, he will squeeze a large number of people into Penang, which is seeking death.

However, even without considering the factor of development, even if he accepted that there would be no development, he still seemed to have to find food and people.

Have you started preparing for battle?

When it comes to preparing for war, the most important thing is not to prepare people, guns, and food.

Preparing guns was the least of his worries. He was confident that he could get one million rifles to distribute to the citizens before the Japanese attacked. Even if the Japanese could land and enter the city, they lacked heavy weapons and firepower, and could be beaten to tears in street fighting.

It is really difficult to just deal with food and people.

Where can I find someone...

　I have a cold and am not feeling well, so I'll just post one chapter. It's about 6,000 to 7,000 words long.
　　
　
(End of this chapter)