My father is Chongzhen? Then I have no choice but to rebel.

His voice wasn't loud, but it carried the composure and penetrating power unique to a seasoned veteran, echoing in the quiet study.

"Your Highness, you must first understand one thing: the Jurchens of today are no longer the Jianzhou Guard under Nurhaci, nor are they the border troubles when Huang Taiji first ascended the throne. Since they usurped the title of 'Great Qing,' established their capital in Shenyang, conquered Mongolia, subjugated Korea, and plundered our Liaodong people, they have become a powerful northern nation!"

Under his rule, the Manchu Eight Banners, the Mongol Eight Banners, and the Han Eight Banners were all capable of fighting, with a rough estimate of no less than 200,000 soldiers! If we also include the bondservants and servants he could command, as well as the Han men who had been captured and coerced, it would not be difficult to gather 300,000 to 500,000 armed men in a short period of time once the entire population was mobilized!

According to my extensive investigations and estimates during my time in Liaodong, the total population of our people, including the Mongol tribes that have submitted, the Korean border people, and the Han Chinese in Liaodong, is probably close to four million!
This is by no means a 'tribe' that can be easily wiped out, but an 'enemy nation' with vast lands, a considerable population, a nascent political structure, and a formidable military! Destroying this nation will not be a matter of a single battle; it will require a protracted war involving the entire nation's resources!

Hong Chengchou spoke in a heavy tone, holding up three fingers:
"In the past, at Sarhu, our Great Ming suffered a crushing defeat despite having superior forces. Therefore, according to my original assessment, to wage a war of annihilation, we must mobilize a million elite troops, advancing on three fronts, step by step, to achieve victory. However..."

He changed the subject, his eyes flashing with the same shock he felt when he witnessed the volley of rifles firing at the research institute earlier that day.

"However, having witnessed Your Highness's new rifle today, its power and speed are truly unprecedented! With such a divine weapon, the requirement for troop numbers may be greatly reduced. However, even so, this old minister believes that to ensure victory, at least 500,000 well-trained and well-equipped soldiers must still be mobilized!"

This figure of 500,000 does not include at least twice that number of civilian laborers, auxiliary soldiers, and various personnel responsible for logistical support!

"Where will these 500,000 soldiers come from? They will need to be drawn from the elite troops of the Nine Garrisons, the Capital Garrison, and even the garrisons throughout the country, reorganized, trained, familiarized with new weapons, and coordinated in command. This cannot be accomplished in a few months. This is the first point."

He lowered the first finger and continued:
"Secondly, a war of annihilation is no ordinary border conflict; it involves penetrating deep into enemy territory and striking at their heart. From the capital to Shenyang, the straight-line distance is over 1,500 li, with mountains and rivers crisscrossing the area. An army can only travel 30 to 40 li per day. Even if the journey were unimpeded, it would still take more than two months to reach the walls of Shenyang! How much more so if we were to fight our way through?"
The Jurchens will undoubtedly fortify their defenses layer by layer, resisting step by step. Therefore, the duration of this war must not be measured in months, but in years! This old minister estimates that, if all goes smoothly, it will take a year and a half; if there are setbacks, two or three years is quite common. In that case, before the war, we must stockpile enough provisions, weapons, and medicine to last more than a year at the front lines! This is fundamental to maintaining the army's lifeline, and we cannot afford to be careless in the slightest!

Hong Chengchou's expression grew increasingly grim:

"Liaodong is bitterly cold and the land is barren; local produce is insufficient to support a large army. Eight or nine out of ten provisions and supplies must be transported from within the Great Wall, through Shanhaiguan, or by sea, a journey of thousands of miles. The losses, guarding, and storage costs along the way are astronomical. A rough estimate suggests that just to ensure the needs of 500,000 soldiers for a year, the required provisions, converted to silver, would amount to over 15 million taels!"
If we also factor in the costs of arms manufacturing, transportation losses, laborers' food and wages, rewards and pensions... without at least twenty million taels of silver, this war would be difficult to launch! And this is a most optimistic estimate; the actual figure would be even higher! Even more problematic is that silver is not always a panacea. The north has suffered from severe drought for years, grain prices fluctuate frequently, and the adequacy of storage and the timeliness of transportation are all major issues!

He took a sip of the now slightly cool tea to moisten his parched throat, then held up his third finger, his tone filled with deep concern for the people's livelihood:
"Thirdly, and most worryingly for this old minister, is the timing of the weather and the will of the people. Your Highness, since the beginning of the Chongzhen reign, droughts, locust plagues, and epidemics have frequently occurred in Beizhili, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, and other places. This is the timing of the 'Little Ice Age,' which is beyond human control. In recent years, the promotion of sweet potatoes and potatoes has indeed alleviated the famine somewhat, but their yield is ultimately limited and they consume a great deal of soil resources."

Who can guarantee that next year or the year after, the drought won't worsen, and the drought won't become even more rampant? What if even these drought-resistant crops fail completely? How will hundreds of millions of people feed themselves then? There will surely be widespread displacement and starvation on the roads!

Hong Chengchou's voice suddenly rose, carrying a pained and remorseful warning:

"Your Highness! The lessons of the past are still fresh in our minds, and the blood and tears have not yet dried! How could the likes of Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong command such a large following and wreak havoc on several provinces? The root cause was that the people could not eat and the officials could not enforce the law! The court is about to fight a decisive battle with the Jurchens in Liaodong. If the heartland is thrown into chaos by a major disaster at this time, with war breaking out everywhere and the country beset by internal and external troubles, even if our Great Ming has the divine weapon of rifles, how many arms can it have to deal with them at the same time?"

This is by no means an exaggeration; it is a serious threat that we must guard against! Therefore, in my opinion, if we want to wage war abroad, we must first secure our internal stability.

At the very least, we must ensure that the people of the north have a year's worth of grain reserves, are free from the fear of hunger and cold, and that the court has no worries about its rear, before we can focus all our efforts on the east! This is crucial for consolidating our foundation; we must not put the cart before the horse!

Finally, his gaze fell on the void, as if he could see again the flames spitting out by the rifle:
"Fourthly, there is this new rifle. What I saw today has truly excited this old minister. However, while excited, we must remain calm. Lord Bi said that the daily production is only three hundred rifles, with a stockpile of just over ten thousand. At this rate, how long would it take to fully equip the main force of our five hundred thousand-strong army?"
Even if we prioritize equipping 100,000 to 200,000 elite troops, it will still take one or two years! Moreover, with the new weapons being deployed, soldiers need to familiarize themselves with the manuals, generals need to explore new tactics, and logistics need to establish a completely new ammunition supply system... All of these things require time to work out and cannot be accomplished overnight.

If we hastily send an army unfamiliar with the new weapons, with inadequate logistics, deep into enemy territory to wage a war of national annihilation… this old minister truly dares not imagine the risks involved.”

The lengthy and detailed analysis covered almost all the core challenges that might be encountered in launching a large-scale war of annihilation, from the strength of the enemy and ourselves, the scale of the war, its duration, the massive logistical costs, internal livelihood issues, to the deployment and training of new equipment.

After Hong Chengchou finished speaking, the study fell into a long silence.

He was slightly out of breath, and even a bead of sweat appeared on his forehead, not because of the heat, but because this thorough analysis and advice had taken a toll on his mental energy.

He stared intently at the Crown Prince, awaiting his reaction. Every word he spoke today came from the bottom of his heart, without reservation, and some of his remarks even bordered on being "disappointing" and "gloomy," but he had to say them.

He knew that the Crown Prince was exceptionally capable and decisive, but precisely because of this, he was even more afraid that the prince would become overconfident due to his successive victories, be too eager for quick success, and drag the country into unpredictable risks.

If we can postpone the meeting for a year and make thorough preparations, our chances of winning will greatly increase, and the people will also have a chance to catch their breath.

At the same time, Zhu Cilang also fell into deep thought.

He leaned back slightly, his gaze falling on the flickering candlelight on the desk, his fingers unconsciously tapping lightly on the armrest, producing a rhythmic, soft "tap-tap" sound.

Hong Chengchou's words were detailed, thorough, and showed his mature understanding of national affairs; they were even more comprehensive and profound than his previous rough considerations.

His emphasis on internal threats to people's livelihoods and his clear understanding of the protracted nature and costly nature of war demonstrate that this veteran official was not without merit.

He's right. A war to destroy a nation is no child's play, nor can it be easily won by a moment of bravado and a few new weapons.

The Jurchens had already formed a cohesive system; even a weakened camel is bigger than a horse. The threat of natural disasters hung like a sword of Damocles overhead. The deployment of rifles would indeed take time. Zhu Cilang wasn't particularly surprised by Hong Chengchou's assessment that "starting war next year is too hasty," and in fact… he agreed with it.

During his southern tour, especially during the more than one month he spent at sea, he had ample time to think calmly. The initial impulse—that idea stemming from a particular historical sentiment—did indeed seem immature under rational scrutiny.

The prerequisites for a war of annihilation are not merely passion and a significant year, but rather a comprehensive preparation of national strength, military power, logistics, and popular support.

What Hong Chengchou was worried about was the key issue that he later gradually realized.

His insistence on the seemingly urgent timeframe of "next year" was less a strict strategic requirement than a test driven by a strong symbolic drive and a sense of urgency that "time waits for no one."

He wanted to see if, given the current potential of the Ming Dynasty, it was truly possible to create a miracle under extreme mobilization.

At the same time, this is also an opportunity to thoroughly understand the attitudes, capabilities, and bottom lines of key ministers like Hong Chengchou regarding this ultimate battle.

In retrospect, Hong Chengchou delivered a "report card" that exceeded expectations.

He not only saw the difficulties but also offered practical suggestions to postpone the process and make thorough preparations. This, on the contrary, reassured Zhu Cilang even more—having such a clear-headed, steady, and knowledgeable veteran minister by his side to identify and fill gaps was far more useful than a group of mediocre ministers who only knew how to sing praises and shout slogans.

Time passed in silence, and the air in the study seemed to freeze. Hong Chengchou's heart, too, rose with each "tap-tap" of the knocking.

Finally, Zhu Cilang stopped tapping his fingers, slowly raised his head, and looked at Hong Chengchou, whose face still showed worry and awaited his judgment, with a clear and calm gaze. The corners of his mouth even curved slightly upward, revealing a faint smile with approval.

"Grand Secretary Hong."

Zhu Cilang's voice broke the silence, peaceful and steady.

“What you said today is all reasonable, well thought out, and shows your maturity and wisdom in governing the country. I, the Empress, deeply agree.”

Upon hearing this, Hong Chengchou was startled, almost thinking he had misheard.

He had considered that the Crown Prince might be persuaded, but he did not expect the other party to affirm his opinion so readily and decisively, even using the phrase "deeply agree."

This seems somewhat different from his impression of the young crown prince, who was decisive and often made surprising moves.

Zhu Cilang continued, his tone frank:
"In fact, I have also thought about whether it is suitable to start a war next year and whether the necessary conditions are met. During my southern tour, I witnessed the wealth of Jiangnan and became even more aware of the difficulty of overall planning. The difficulties you just mentioned—the strength of the enemy country, the power of the weather, the importance of people's livelihood, the slow progress of new weapons, and the huge amount of food and supplies—are all true."

When I discussed the date next year with you, there were indeed some other considerations... but now it seems I was a bit too hasty.”

He paused, his gaze becoming sharp and resolute:
"However, our determination to destroy the Jurchens remains unwavering! Whether it's a year later or a year earlier, we will eventually achieve our goal in one battle! Since we are going to fight, we must fight a battle we are confident of winning, a battle we are certain of victory in, a war of annihilation that will shake the world and lay the foundation for a century of peace for our Great Ming! Hasty actions will only increase the risks, and a wise man will not do that."

Zhu Cilang sat up straight and said decisively:
"Grand Secretary Hong, I have heeded your advice. I will grant your suggestion and postpone it for a year. Next year, the seventeenth year of Chongzhen, the court's priority is not to start the war immediately, but to prepare for the war of annihilation! Stockpile grain and fodder, train elite troops, accelerate the deployment of rifles, stabilize the livelihood of the people in the north, and formulate a detailed strategy for the advance! When everything is ready and the east wind arrives, we will use the overwhelming force of Mount Tai and the thunderous power to wipe out Liaodong in one fell swoop and eliminate future troubles forever!"

When Hong Chengchou heard the Crown Prince's well-reasoned, clear-cut decision, which fully adopted his core suggestions, a huge weight was finally lifted from his heart. What surged up was immense excitement, relief, and a sense of "having met a wise ruler."

He stood up abruptly, his movement so sudden that he knocked over the chair behind him, but he didn't care. He knelt down deeply before Zhu Cilang, his voice trembling slightly with excitement.
"Your Highness... Your Highness is wise! Your open-mindedness in accepting advice and readily adopting good suggestions is a blessing to the nation, a boon to the army, and a pillar of support for the people! This old minister... This old minister kowtows in gratitude to Your Highness! I will do my utmost, even unto death, to devise this perfect plan and train this invincible army for Your Highness, for His Majesty, and for our Great Ming!"

He truly hadn't expected that this prince, known for his domineering and unpredictable nature, would be so rational and "easy to talk to" on such a crucial strategic decision.

This is not indecisiveness at all, but rather the prudence and courage that a truly mature politician and strategist should possess! Following such a leader, even amidst countless difficulties and dangers, one feels that the future is bright!
Seeing the undisguised astonishment and disbelief on Hong Chengchou's face, Zhu Cilang couldn't help but smile. He picked up the teacup, which had already cooled slightly, took a small sip, and then leisurely said:
"What, Grand Secretary Hong seems quite surprised? Could it be that in my heart you are the kind of person who cannot listen to dissenting opinions, is willful and self-willed? Matters of state concern the survival of the nation and the well-being of the people. How can we make rash decisions based on momentary impulses or a desire for grand achievements, putting the country in danger?"

His tone was calm, yet it carried an undeniable sincerity and strength, and his clear gaze looked at Hong Chengchou.

Hong Chengchou's face flushed at the blunt question, and he quickly bowed again, his tone filled with a complex mix of shame and relief:

"Your Highness is too kind! It was...it was this old minister's foolishness, his petty mind presuming upon Your Highness's noble character. Your Highness is humble and open-minded, insightful and discerning, readily accepting advice—truly the demeanor of a wise ruler. This old minister...this old minister is utterly convinced!"

Zhu Cilang smiled noncommittally and did not dwell on the topic. (End of Chapter)