Jinting Han people

On this day, Liu Xian and Li Ju rode their horses to observe the terrain of Dianlingban. They were discussing the possibility of the Western Army attacking Hedong from this place when Meng Tao suddenly sent a messenger to deliver a message to him, saying that an envoy from Anyi had come and requested to see Liu Xian.

An envoy? Whose side is he? Liu Xian was surprised. He had only been stationed in Hedong for less than half a month, and the news probably hadn't even spread throughout Guanzhong yet, and an envoy had already arrived. This was truly unexpected. Therefore, he reined in his horse and asked, "What is the envoy's name? Whom has he entrusted? Does he have any credentials?"

"The envoy is very young. He claims to be the son of an old friend and comes from Hebei. As for the specifics, we will have to meet you, my lord, to discuss them further."

"Were they sent by the King of Chengdu?" Liu Xian and Li Ju exchanged a glance, then nodded and said, "Then I'll go back first. Shi Hui, you can make the decision first."

On the way back, Liu Xian wondered what Sima Ying could possibly want from him. This man was petty, concerned with appearances, and fickle; one could say he was utterly useless except for his willingness to delegate power. After the several major battles of the previous year, Liu Xian believed Sima Ying must harbor deep resentment towards him, and that reconciliation was impossible without some flattery and contribution. Unexpectedly, Sima Ying had actually sent an envoy.

In this situation, Liu Xian knew without much guessing who made the decision.

Upon returning to the Anyi County government office, Liu Xian went inside and, sure enough, the visitor was Lu Zhi's eldest son, Lu Chen.

Lu Chen was twenty years old this year, with a face as beautiful as jade and a figure as slender as a pine tree. Liu Xian was very impressed with him. Firstly, Lu Chen's appearance was truly outstanding, a top choice; secondly, he had joined Lu Zhi in the campaign against Zhao at the age of sixteen, showing that he was courageous and capable at a young age, far from being an ordinary scholar who only engaged in idle talk.

It was clear that Lu Chen also had a good impression of Liu Xian. When he saw Liu Xian return, he immediately treated him with the respect due to a junior and addressed him as his uncle. Liu Xian did not stand on ceremony and directly called Lu Chen "Ziliang". The two did not mention the previous battles at Mangshan and Mangkou. They simply exchanged pleasantries and greetings, just like relatives visiting each other.

"How has Chief Secretary Lu been feeling lately?"

"My lord has been busy with military affairs in Shanyang recently, and everything is fine."

During their conversation, Liu Xian discerned Lu Chen's intentions. Lu Zhi had sent him, surely to seek something from him. This wasn't hard to understand. Currently, the Western Expeditionary Army Command held absolute power, while the Northern Expeditionary Army Command's prestige had been greatly diminished. He was undoubtedly eager to break this stalemate and restore the Northern Expeditionary Army Command's authority. Now that Liu Xian had entered Hedong, sandwiched between the Northern and Western Expeditionary Army Commands, he had become a crucial force. With Lu Zhi's strategic vision, he couldn't possibly be unaware of this.

Since the other party had come with a request, the initiative was in Liu Xian's hands. Therefore, Liu Xian was not in a hurry and waited for Lu Chen to bring up the topic.

As expected, Lu Chen was a young man after all. After chatting with Liu Xian for about fifteen minutes, he became a little impatient. He looked up at Liu Xian and suddenly asked, "I wonder when Uncle plans to leave Hedong?"

Liu Xian's heart stirred, but he still maintained a relaxed expression. He said, "Why do you say that, my dear nephew? Hedong has always been a prosperous land, perfect for nurturing people. Why would I want to leave?"

Lu Chen smiled and, following his father's instructions, said, "Uncle is too kind. With your wisdom, how could you not see that Hedong is now surrounded on all sides and is no place to stay for long? It's just that you're having a hard time deciding where to go, so the master specially sent me here to help you out!"

"Is that so?" Liu Xian smiled, poured himself a bowl of tea, and then poured one for Lu Chen. He then put on an attentive expression and said, "Since it is Lu Zidao's suggestion, I'm afraid I have no choice but to listen."

Seeing that they had gotten to the point, Lu Chen said, "My lord said that Uncle has led ten thousand men here with the intention of establishing himself. However, Hedong is located in the capital region. Although it has some natural defenses, it has no support and no reputation to uphold. Caught between the east and west, although it has a small force and can temporarily establish a foothold, it is in a dilemma and it is difficult to achieve great things. Therefore, he has three strategies that can be offered to Uncle."

"Three strategies? What are the three strategies?"

"The worst strategy is to lead troops across the river and fight the King of Hejian. If defeated, advance westward and seize Xijing, thus securing temporary dominance. The middle strategy is to turn north, unite with the five Xiongnu tribes, occupy Bingzhou, and then adapt to changing circumstances, thus becoming a temporary hegemon."

"What's the best strategy?"

"The best course of action is to go straight to Shu. Hasn't Uncle been considering this all these years?"

Upon hearing this, Liu Xian fell silent for a moment. He raised his teacup and took a sip, showing no intention of agreeing. But Lu Chen knew that silence was an attitude, signaling him to continue explaining the differences between these strategies. In fact, Liu Xian himself didn't realize that his expression had become much more serious.

Lu Chen had already memorized his father's instructions. He analyzed in detail: "Uncle is a famous general in the world, which is a well-known fact. Looking across the whole country, the only one who can compare with Uncle is probably Zhang Fang. And Uncle has also sown the seeds of Zhang Fang's relationship with the Prince of Hejian. Logically speaking, Uncle should be able to win every battle when he leads his troops westward."

"But may I ask, Uncle, how do you compare yourself to Wu Qi?"

Liu Xian said, "Wu Qi never suffered a defeat in his life. He preserved Lu in Lu, strengthened Wei in Wei, and revitalized Chu in Chu. I dare not compare myself to him."

"Given Wu Qi's divine prowess, his command of the powerful Wei army, and his repeated victories over the Qin army, why couldn't he annex the Three Qin regions? Firstly, the tallest tree in the forest is bound to be felled by the wind. Wu Qi was renowned throughout China and beyond, and he roamed the world. If he were to gain control of the Three Qin regions, wouldn't he become the sole ruler, unchallenged by anyone? Secondly, attacking Guanzhong from Hedong offers no natural defenses. If he couldn't defeat Wu Qi's leader and capture Chang'an, no matter how much Hexi territory he occupied, a single defeat would be enough to wipe it all out."

"Uncle's current situation is similar to that of Wu Qi back then. Uncle may be able to win a few great battles, but don't forget that the King of Hejian still has reinforcements in Qin Prefecture and Liang Prefecture. If all else fails, he can grit his teeth and make peace with Zhang Fang. Isn't that a strategy? In any case, he will never allow Uncle to occupy Guanzhong. After all, this is his place of origin."

"Although Uncle has elite troops and strong generals under his command, everyone is human. One effort can be strong, but it will weaken and eventually be exhausted. In the end, if he loses even once, he will die without a burial place. Therefore, for Uncle, taking Guanzhong is really a bad strategy."

Lu Chen didn't say everything, but Liu Xian understood. Lu Zhi meant that if Liu Xian had a chance of success in Guanzhong, not only the forces of Guanzhong, but even Lu Zhi himself would put aside his prejudices and do everything he could to help the Prince of Hejian protect Guanzhong.

"I really am the envy of others!" Liu Xian shook his head helplessly and smiled, promising Lu Chen, "Your master is right. So I have no intention of coveting Guanzhong. He can rest assured."

He then asked, "Then why did Zidao say that taking Bingzhou was the middle strategy?"

"Bingzhou is the ancient land of the Three Jin states, with a strategic location, surrounded by mountains and rivers, forming a self-contained entity. It produces warhorses, salt, and iron. To the east, it can seize land in Hebei; to the west, it can contend with Guanzhong; to the north, it can influence the southern desert; and to the south, it can attack the capital region. It can be said to be the dragon's spine of the north. Its ownership is enough to dominate the entire situation of the world."

"But Uncle, do you know that there are a million Hu people in Bingzhou? Although they have learned Chinese characters, they are ultimately not versed in the ways of the people. These Huns know nothing of loyalty, righteousness, filial piety, or brotherly love; they are like beasts. They kill each other and commit adultery with their uncles and aunts. They only know how to bully the weak and rely on their strength. They can be summoned at will and dismissed at will. In the short term, you may be able to suppress them with your prestige, but how can you govern them in the long run? If you implement the rule of law and education, it will be inconsistent with their traditions, and the result will inevitably be chaos. If hundreds of thousands of people rebel, you will not be able to quell them, let alone pacify the whole country." "Therefore, although taking Bingzhou is better than taking Guanzhong, it is only a middle-of-the-road strategy and cannot be used as a base."

Although Liu Xian had considered the drawbacks of conquering Bingzhou and believed it would be difficult to win over the hearts of the Hu people, this was only a vague feeling, and he did not understand the real reason. But upon hearing Lu Zhi's analysis, he suddenly realized the truth: it was the difference between tradition and system! The Hu people's traditions and systems were loose, while China's etiquette and laws were strict. These two were destined to create huge conflicts, making the governance of Bingzhou impossible.

Lu Zhi was indeed a master strategist. Even when he relayed the message through someone else, his analysis was so insightful. After Liu Xian understood the key points, he almost slammed his fist on the table in admiration, but he restrained himself and leaned back slightly, pretending to be reserved as he nodded and said, "What you said does make some sense."

But he then added, "I cannot understand why Zidao believes that entering Shu is the best strategy."

Entering Shu was a long-cherished wish of Liu Xian's, and he had thought about it many times. If possible, he would like to go directly to Shu, but the various difficulties he would encounter were beyond his ability to overcome.

The journey from Luoyang to Hedong was arduous, but at least safe. However, the current route from Hedong to Bashu required traversing the entire Yongzhou region, then crossing the Qinling Mountains and the Hanzhong Basin before finally reaching Yizhou. The entire area in between was the territory of the King of Hejian, leaving him with virtually no logistical support.

Not to mention, even if he succeeded under these circumstances, how many men could he take with him? Once he reached Yizhou, he probably wouldn't even have a chance to catch his breath before having to fight Li Xiong again. Could he possibly win that battle? What would happen to the people in Hedong?

The only advantage is that it allows them to use the opportunity of entering Shu to rally the surrounding forces opposed by Sima Yong, who are preoccupied with their own problems. However, judging from the current situation, the gains will be minimal.

Taking all this into consideration, although Liu Xian longed to enter Shu and restore his kingdom, he still planned to first find a way to take over Guanzhong. Once his worries about the rear were resolved, he could enter Shu openly and legitimately. At that time, Guanzhong, Longxi, Bashu, and Shu would be united as one, forming the powerful Qin state. Taking over Guandong would then no longer be a difficult task.

After listening to Lu Zhi's analysis, neither seizing Guanzhong nor seizing Bingzhou was a good strategy. Was he really going to go to Qin and Liang, which were in the midst of great chaos?
Lu Chen had been laying the groundwork for this very moment. He quickly analyzed, "Ordinary people only think of Shu as a remote place, but precisely because of this, if Uncle returns to Shu to restore the kingdom, and fights against Li Xiong, it won't arouse the hostility of the world. It's the perfect time to bide our time and recuperate. Moreover, Uncle is a descendant of the Han dynasty, and Bashu is the legacy of our ancestors. He must have the support of the people and his old troops. He can secure the throne..."

The scene was rather comical. Lu Chen spoke to Liu Xian about their ancestral legacy as if he were the one seeking to restore the kingdom. Liu Xian raised his hand to interrupt, saying, "Ziliang, I understand all that you're saying. But do you understand my difficulties?"

"Forty years ago, Emperor Wen moved 30,000 households from Shu to Hedong. Since then, there are nearly 50,000 households and 200,000 people. Now that I have succeeded as the Duke of Anle, I have a responsibility to these people. I cannot abandon them and go to Shu alone."

"In that case, why doesn't Uncle take these people with him and go to Shu together?"

This is a ridiculous question. Relocating 200,000 people would be a colossal undertaking in any era. It would be extremely difficult even in peacetime, let alone in the chaotic world we are in now.
Therefore, Liu Xian bluntly spread his hands and said, "It's not that I'm unwilling, but that I can't. If we were to relocate the people, I'm afraid there would be no harvest for the whole year, and it would consume a lot of grain and fodder, which I cannot afford."

How much food and fodder are needed?

"At least one million bushels are needed."

Lu Chen said, "Before I came, the master asked me to tell my uncle that he was willing to provide him with two million bushels of grain."

This statement was like a bolt from the blue, startling Liu Xian. He looked at Lu Chen incredulously and heard him repeat, "As long as Uncle agrees to enter Shu, you will deliver two million bushels of millet to Uncle within two months."

Has Lu Zhi gone mad? Two million bushels of millet and wheat—what a terrifying number! It must be understood that Luoyang has frequently suffered from famine in recent years. The imperial granary often holds less than half a million bushels, let alone a million. Meanwhile, the grain reserves in Hedong, accumulated over ten years, amount to about 300,000 bushels in the imperial granary, plus the 800,000 bushels privately held by various clans, totaling just over a million bushels. Even in a prosperous region like Hebei, this is by no means an easy figure; it could represent more than half a year's worth of land rent for the entire Ji Province.

Regardless, this did demonstrate Lu Zhi's sincerity, making it possible to bring people into Sichuan, rather than a pipe dream.

But Liu Xian also knew all too well that nothing comes for free, and these two million bushels of grain were definitely not a gift to him. Therefore, after the initial shock, he felt neither excited nor nervous. He simply composed himself, straightened his posture, and asked calmly, "What demands does Chief Secretary Lu have of me?"

Lu Chen said, "Your Excellency means that you hope that during the migration, you will call upon the loyal ministers of Guanzhong to launch a feigned attack on Chang'an."

"A feigned attack on Chang'an?"

"Yes, Chang'an is the heart of Guanzhong. As long as you lead your troops in a feigned attack, the King of Hejian will have no choice but to mobilize his troops to confront you in Chang'an. In this way, the rest of Guanzhong will be relaxed, and the people of Hedong that you care about can take a detour south and take the opportunity to head straight for Hanzhong, right?"

Hearing this, Liu Xian finally understood Lu Zhi's idea. He crossed his arms and chuckled softly, "Once I've fought a fierce battle with the Western Army in Chang'an and forced Zhang Fangdu back to Chang'an, the Northern Army can take advantage of the situation to recapture Luoyang and seize Hedong as well. What a brilliant move to use one tiger to devour another! Lu Zidao has made a good deal!"

“Why not?” Lu Chen relayed his father’s words, “Uncle, you are eager to restore the kingdom, while Your Excellency is eager to strike at the Western Army and vindicate the King of Chengdu. Isn’t this a win-win situation?”

If this plan could be realized, it would indeed be a win-win situation. However, the key issue is that the entire risk of implementing this strategy rests on Liu Xian's shoulders. Liu Xian would need to use a small force to tie down the vast majority of the Western Army, and might even have to confront Zhang Fang again, in exchange for this possibility of entering Shu. Meanwhile, Lu Zhi, after paying two million bushels of grain, only needs to wait quietly.

If the plan succeeds, Liu Xian can simply lead his troops into Shu, while Lu Zhi can gain two commanderies for free. If the plan fails, Liu Xian may suffer total annihilation, while Lu Zhi will only lose two million bushels of grain. No matter how you look at it, Lu Zhi is the one who gains more and loses less.

Lu Zhi is truly a genius! He actually came up with such a bold and ingenious plan! And the most crucial thing is that Liu Xian couldn't think of any reason to refute it. It seems that to him, this was indeed the best strategy for entering Shu.

On the other hand, while relocating 200,000 people, they also had to lead troops to confront hundreds of thousands of Western troops. Wasn't this a crazy move? Even Liu Xian, who was used to seeing big scenes, found it difficult to make a decision at this moment.

Therefore, when Lu Chen inquired about his attitude, Liu Xian remained silent for a long time. He stood up and hesitated for a moment before finally saying to Lu Chen, "Nephew, please wait five days. I will give you an answer within five days." (End of Chapter)