My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 768 If you don’t break out in silence, you will perish in silence.

The third day of September, the seventeenth year of Jian'an.

Luoyang, Prime Minister's Mansion.

"Prime Minister, this is the battle report from General Cheng. The battle of Jibei has ended. General Cheng has withdrawn most of his troops. Except for the more than 6,000 soldiers who were annihilated by Gao Shun in Qufu City, there were no major losses in the rest of the battles. General Cheng has requested to be punished. Please make the decision, Prime Minister."

Cao Cao's Sizhi Sima Yi took a secret report recently sent by Cheng Yu and presented it to Cao Cao, and briefly explained the situation.

Sima Yi's promotion in the past two years has been quite fast. After not seeing him for a while, he was promoted again and became the Sizhi of the Prime Minister's Office.

It is also thanks to the fact that the Prime Minister's Office does not have a subordinate official called "Sima" like the General's Office. Otherwise, if Sima Yi really got that position, wouldn't he be called "Sima Sima".

Cao Cao took the military report numbly, glanced through it blankly several times, and then began to think carefully about how to approve it and how to set the tone for the losses that had already been suffered.

Cheng Yu did predict and assess the risks in advance and took measures to minimize the losses of the imperial army in the process of losing Jibei and Lu.

But all of this was requested and coordinated secretly and could not be brought to the table.

Losing troops and territory can never be boasted as a merit. Even if the loss would have been greater if he had done nothing, the person who warned of the risk and stopped the loss cannot be rewarded for this.

Cao Cao understood that the best doctor treats the disease before it occurs, and the best warrior does not have great achievements. However, as a leader, he must consider the fairness and popular appeal of personnel and performance appraisal decisions.

Otherwise, once rewards and punishments are unclear and people's hearts are scattered, more and more subordinate officials will emphasize that they "avoided the losses that the court would have suffered." If everyone does this, no one will fight to the death.

If you lose, you lose. If you retreat, you retreat. You must be punished. At most, considering that Cheng Yu was diligent, the punishment was not too severe.

Finally, Cao Cao sighed and said, "This matter should be punished! In just nine months, the court has lost control of thirteen counties! If this continues, the court will fall into the hands of the traitor Liu Bei!

The most important thing right now is how to inspire people and make officials and generals from all over the country determined to fight! Zhongde lost two counties, and that means he lost two counties. The court's laws on the surface cannot be abolished. I will send him a private letter to comfort him..."

"As you command! I will do as the Prime Minister wishes." Sima Yi bowed and accepted the order, which finalized the tone for how to deal with Cheng Yu and other Yanzhou civil and military officials.

However, after receiving the order, Sima Yi did not leave immediately.

Cao Cao was worried about the unfavorable situation on the front line. After being upset for a while, he looked up and saw Sima Yi still standing there. He couldn't help but feel a little angry:
"I have already explained how to proceed. Do you still have any questions? Why don't you leave?"

Sima Yi had not been involved in the central strategic decision-making recently. It was not his turn to intervene in Cao Cao's decision to fight or retreat.

But perhaps because the Prime Minister's condition had been getting worse and worse recently, and his spirits were exhausted, and the other staff around him could not come up with any way to turn the tide of the war, Sima Yi always felt that he should do his job, so he wanted to seize the opportunity to offer advice.

At this moment, he somehow mustered up the courage to remind: "Prime Minister! Since the twelfth month of last year, the imperial army has been defeated step by step, and has lost more than ten counties in total..."

Cao Cao's expression quickly turned cold when he heard such a discouraging opening remark, and he even showed a trace of disgust: "Don't I know? Do I need you to remind me of this? Hebei has no strategic location to defend. Once the troops are insufficient, the winner will take all. The weaker side can only defend a few important cities. This is the law of nature, and it has been the same since ancient times! What can I do!"

Cao Cao originally didn’t want to say so much. Given his temper, he should have stopped at “Do I need you to remind me?”

But recently, he was so upset that even this reserved and deep-minded villain had changed a little and became more talkative.

This situation was extremely rare in previous years. Cao Cao was always suspicious, and he was most afraid that his inner weakness would be discovered by his subordinates. It can be seen that Cao Cao was really forced into a desperate situation, so he became more fluent in his words and no longer concealed himself.

Sima Yi keenly observed this change and breathed a sigh of relief, knowing that he would not be angered by his advice today.

He knew Cao Cao's usual style too well. If Cao Cao was still very frugal with his words, it meant that he was still confident and arbitrary, and his subordinates could not persuade him. If he was willing to talk nonsense, it meant that he was already shaken in his heart.

Sima Yi bowed and added earnestly, "Didn't I say that it is wrong to withdraw troops when there is no strategic location to defend? But please think carefully, can the court abandon all the land east of Taihang Mountain?"

"How dare you!" Cao Cao slammed the table when he heard Sima Yi touched his weak spot. The guards at the door also pricked up their ears. If Cao Cao really gave an order in anger, those people would rush in and carry Sima Yi away.

Since the continuous retreat and collapse, no one dared to say such words to Cao Cao. No one dared to remind Cao Cao that "if you continue to implement the strategic deployment idea of ​​preserving the living force as the main goal", where you will retreat to in the end.

Now, Sima Yi has finally broken the window paper that no one dared to pierce.

Indeed, the entire land east of Taihang Mountain and Hulao Pass, and south of Funiushan Mountain and Songshan Mountain, is mainly plains. Occasionally there are hilly and mountainous areas, but they can all be covered by larger plains.

The He, Ji, Ying and Bian rivers crisscross and divide the land of Henan and Hebei, allowing the side with superior military strength to bypass the fortified cities and advance boldly, and in the end always be able to more or less ensure logistics.

Perhaps top hub cities like Suiyang, Xuxian, and Yecheng can cut off the enemy's logistics supply and troop reinforcement arteries. But apart from these cities, what else can be done?
What's more, the situation Cao Cao is facing now is different from any previous historical period.

Historically, whether it was Suiyang or Yecheng, one important reason why these nodes were able to completely block the attacking party's food supply and logistical reinforcements was that the enemy princes only attacked from a single direction.

For example, if Liu Bei was completely in the south and Cao Cao was in the north, places like Suiyang would be able to completely cut off the food supply routes for the northern princes to go south or the southern princes to go north.

But the problem is that Liu Bei is now encircling Cao Cao from both the north and south. The northern part of Jizhou and Youzhou are in Liu Bei's hands, as are Lianghuai.

When Liu Bei's offensive routes were spreading like mercury and his supply routes could also support each other, Cao Cao's deployment according to traditional strategic thinking and his defense of transportation hubs had greatly reduced its practical significance.

Before this, some people either did not dare to say this to Cao Cao, or, like Xun Yu, although he dared to say it, Xun Yu himself did not know much about military strategy. Xun Yu was a talent in internal affairs, especially personnel.

So, today it is Sima Yi's turn to point it out.

Of course, this is not to say that Sima Yi was loyal to Cao Cao, but that he was very good at understanding people, especially his direct superiors.

From Sima Yi's observation of Cao Cao, he had realized that the Prime Minister had been confused and wavering recently, and in addition, Cao Cao's reaction to the previous test had made him a little more talkative, which allowed Sima Yi to catch clues and realize that it was a good opportunity for him to show off.

Cao Cao did want to preserve his manpower, but he never thought that "in order to preserve his manpower, he would pay such a huge price as losing the entire area east of Hulao Pass". He was just old, and even though he was still shrewd, his reaction was slow after all. He would subconsciously avoid many bad things and needed someone to point them out and remind him.

Sima Yi then gritted his teeth and said, "I know that the Prime Minister is not a coward. How could he give up the entire Guandong region just to save his troops?
But if we just keep retreating, we will eventually end up like this. So I think the court should come up with a counterattack plan so that we don’t have to retreat again and again and the army loses its morale!"

Cao Cao stared at Sima Yi for a long time. Seeing that his tone and expression were very sincere and there were no outsiders around, Cao Cao sighed grimly: "Don't I know this truth? It's just that I have never had the opportunity. Tell me, how should I do it?"

Sima Yi was secretly delighted, knowing that his suggestion would work, and he quickly cheered up and added: "Since Liu Bei invaded last year, the imperial army could have taken advantage of the dispatch, because the imperial army's support between different places takes less time and distance.

However, Liu Bei was outside, and his armies could only fight on their own and could not help each other. In this respect, Liu Bei was at an absolute disadvantage.

It was a pity that Liu Bei had more soldiers and horses, more abundant food and fodder, and better military equipment, so although the coordination of support from various departments was unfavorable, he was still able to gain the upper hand.

Moreover, before the war, Liu Bei, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei had already attracted the main force of the imperial court in Huaibei, and 200,000 imperial court troops were stuck in Heluo, Yingchuan and Chenliang, unable to withdraw. As a result, the imperial court troops in other battlefields were at an absolute disadvantage in the face of Liu Bei's army, which was prepared for a surprise attack. Most of the counties lost were also in those places.

However, the court's defense line has been shrinking again and again, and the remote enclaves have almost been lost, but the troops are still relatively intact. Except for the almost annihilation of Zhang He and Gao Lan's troops, in subsequent battles, the defenders in various places have successfully retreated after suffering some setbacks.

So right now, as long as the imperial court gathers its forces once more and finds an opportunity to catch the enemy by surprise and counterattack. And we must fight quickly, fight in the field, and decide the outcome as soon as possible, then the situation may still turn around! I hope the Prime Minister will understand!"

Sima Yi's plan was rather complicated and could not be fully explained in one go. However, Cao Cao only needed to listen to the general idea to understand Sima Yi's thinking.

To this day, Cao's army still maintains the dispatch advantage of "internal operations". That is, mutual assistance between Cao's battlefields can come faster. On the other hand, if Liu Bei's side encounters an emergency, such as the three armies in the north, south and east, if any one of them is suddenly counterattacked by the enemy's superior forces, the other two armies will have to go around in a big circle to provide support.

Of course, Liu Bei's side could also choose not to provide direct support, but to "besiege Wei to save Zhao", attacking the enemy where they must rescue, thereby binding the enemy's forces - in fact, this is what Liu Bei's army has been doing from December last year to August this year.

Liu, Guan and Zhang stuck to Cao Cao's main force in Heluo and Huaibei, creating a gap in Cao Cao's jurisdiction and giving Zhuge Jin and Zhao Yun an opportunity to advance.

But now, as Cao Cao continues to shrink, the situation is slowly changing.

Because the more they shrink, the fewer scattered and undefensible salients of Cao's army will be, and the fewer "weak points" Cao Cao will have.

Although there were still some places that had to be defended, such as Luoyang, Cao Cao no longer wanted or lost the land south of the three passes south of Luonan and south of Funiu Mountain, so the number of troops required to defend the remaining territory of Heluo was greatly reduced.

With the strategic location of the three passes in southern Luo, plus Mount Songshan and Mount Funiushan, it is possible for 50,000 people to withstand the attack of 200,000 people and hold them off for several months in a short period of time.

Moreover, during the rapid contraction of Cao's army, some of the weak points of infrastructure destruction and local order collapse were left to Liu Bei. It would take time for Liu Bei's army to digest these territories, restore order, and restore the efficiency of supply transportation through these places.

This effort to restore order and administrative efficiency can take as short as half a year or as long as one or two years. All these factors that slow down Liu Bei's efficiency will result in Liu Bei's weaknesses becoming more numerous and Cao Cao's weaknesses becoming fewer in a short period of time.

Of course, this weakness will be completely repaired and mastered by Liu Bei in a year or two.

At that time, it is like some muscles that have just been exhausted and slightly torn during fitness are regrown and grown bigger than before fitness. But during this time before these muscles are repaired, they are in a relatively weak state. If you don't seize this opportunity, you will never have another chance.

After Cao Cao understood all these, his expression and tone became calm again. He sighed and analyzed, "So, Zhongda's intention is to let me seize the opportunity to attack the enemies from the three directions of north, south and east, observe their weaknesses, and then select one of them to gather heavy troops to counterattack?

Then tell me, among these three invading forces, which one should our army counterattack? And how should we resist the other two?"

Sima Yi did not hesitate for too long this time, and almost answered immediately: "Now if our army wants to seize the opportunity to counterattack, the enemies in the north are Zhuge Jin, Zhao Yun, Ma Chao, and Zhou Yu, and the enemies in the east are Taishi Ci, Zhang Liao, Gao Shun, and Lu Su. In the south, there are Liu Bei, Guan Yu, Zhang Fei, and Zhuge Liang.

According to the current front-line intelligence, the enemy originally had more than 100,000 soldiers in Hebei, but after Taishi Ci's troops were withdrawn, only 70,000 to 80,000 soldiers remained. The enemy troops in the east included Taishi Ci's 30,000 soldiers and Lu Su, Zhang Liao and Gao Shun's Xuzhou troops, which added up to about 70,000 to 80,000 soldiers. The enemy troops in the south were the largest, and the total strength of Liu, Guan and Zhang was always more than 200,000.

The total number of the imperial court's troops is now less than 400,000. With the other fronts having to be temporarily delayed, at most 200,000 troops can be assembled for the counterattack. If the counterattack is on the southern front, it may be possible to raise 50,000 or 60,000 more, but the enemy on the southern front is also the strongest.

Even if the imperial court assembled 250,000 men, it would be difficult to defeat Liu, Guan, Zhang and Zhuge Liang's 200,000 men.

But if 200,000 men were assembled on the east or north route, facing 70,000 or 80,000 enemies, there might still be a chance. As long as we actively seek a counterattack within one or two months, fight a decisive battle in the field, and quickly annihilate the enemy, then turn around and fight the other two routes, the situation may turn around.

However, due to the short time, this counterattack could not immediately expand the territory by thousands of miles and regain all the lost land. At most, it could only annihilate a main force of the enemy and reverse the difference in combat power between the two sides. The court must aim to annihilate the enemy, not to occupy the land. Otherwise, if it wants both people and land, it will end up being greedy and gaining nothing. "

Sima Yi's analysis has clearly told Cao Cao: If he wants to launch a counterattack, and a quick battle, and pick Liu, Guan and Zhang as targets, his hope is very slim.

The enemy has 200,000 soldiers, and even if Cao's army puts all its main forces into the battle, it may not be able to win.

There is also a problem with the route of Liu Bei, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei, that is, the distance and depth of the enemy's advance so far are not very large. If Liu Bei feels that he cannot win, he can immediately withdraw a little and return to the stable territory that Liu Bei controlled before the war.

By then, if Cao Cao wanted to switch from defense to offense and attack the Tongbai Mountain defense line that Liu Bei had firmly grasped, he would be completely at a huge disadvantage in terms of geographical location.

In other words, if Liu Bei chose to attack on the southern front, even if Cao Cao was determined to fight a quick battle in the field, Liu Bei could choose to avoid the battle, and Cao Cao did not have the leverage to force the enemy to fight him.

But the situation was different on the eastern and northern fronts. Especially on the northern front, Zhuge Jin had advanced more than 500 miles, and behind him was the Hebei Plain, which was completely defenseless.

In a place like the Hebei Plain, whoever loses has to take a big step back, and it is impossible to gain a foothold in the middle. The winner takes all and the Matthew effect are too obvious.

So once Zhuge Jin, Zhao Yun, Zhou Yu and others were suddenly forced to fight by Cao Cao, they would either voluntarily give up the six counties in central Hebei that they had just occupied and retreat 500 miles back to Bohai. Otherwise, Zhuge Jin would have to bite the bullet and fight Cao Cao's main force in a field battle! He had no room to avoid the battle.

Even if Zhuge Jin wanted to choose to "retreat to the cities along the way and wait for help", it was impossible. Because none of the cities that had just been conquered in the past six months were as solid as the Nanpi City in Bohai County, which had been painstakingly built for many years.

In Jizhou, except for Yecheng and Nanpi, the other cities in the middle, no matter how developed their economy was, were definitely easy to attack but difficult to defend militarily. Moreover, these places had just changed hands within half a year and had been damaged by war, so Zhuge Jin had no time to repair the city defenses.

Because there were too many cities captured, Zhuge Jin didn't know which one to repair first even if he wanted to. This was a bottomless pit of resources, so he simply didn't invest.

As long as Cao Cao launched a counterattack, Zhuge Jin had to respond and engage in battle. He would have to fight a field battle with Cao's army and have nowhere to hide. It was also impossible for him to allow Cao Cao to station his troops under a fortified city and consume his energy.

Moreover, Cao Cao soon discovered that choosing Zhuge Jin, Zhao Yun, Ma Chao and Zhou Yu as opponents had another advantage, which was that Zhuge Jin's team was the slowest in getting direct support from friendly forces.

Liu Bei's army is now like a semicircular "Changshan Snake". If you hit its tail, the head will come around to support it. If you hit its head, the tail will come around to support it. If you hit the middle, both the head and the tail will come.

Zhuge Jin is at the head, Taishi Ci, Zhang Liao, Gao Shun and Lu Su are in the middle, and Liu, Guan, Zhang and Zhuge Liang are at the tail. If you choose to attack Taishi Ci, the distance that the enemy's reinforcements from the north and south can be pulled over will be half shorter, making it easy to be "attacked from both ends".

After thinking through all these factors, Cao Cao's desperate strategy was about to emerge:

Taking advantage of the time difference created by the continuous contraction of the other two fronts and the continuous weakness of Liu Bei, they gathered more than 200,000 troops and used their absolute superiority to completely annihilate Liu Bei's army, which was weakened to only 80,000 men, and the Hebei army! Or at least inflict as much damage as possible.

The time window is only one to two months, and everything must be done in such a short time. If it is slower, the enemy may reinforce or other fronts and defense areas may not be able to hold on.

If successful, one of Liu Bei's three armies would be destroyed, and the situation would be broken. At least we could drag the battle with Liu Bei on for a long time and wait for other changes.

But if it fails, the consequences will be very terrible.

Cao Cao could easily imagine that if this battle was not won and the concentrated counterattack troops suffered heavy losses, the entire Taihang Mountains and the territory east of Hulao Pass would be completely collapsed.

But Cao Cao had no choice but to go down this path to the end.

Because if we don't fight this time, we will suffer from chronic blood loss and chronic death. In one or two years at most, all parts of Guandong will be destroyed and will be slowly devoured by Liu Bei.

Even if Cao Cao wakes up immediately and withdraws all main combat forces to the east of Taihang Mountains and Hulao Pass, with the absolute priority of preserving the manpower, it will be useless.

Because relying solely on the lands of Heluo, Bingzhou and Guanzhong was not enough to feed his army of 300,000 or 400,000, and Cao Cao would be starved to death by the lack of food.

In that case, we might as well just block this one!
We won, and saved the remaining three states in Guandong, the army, and wiped out one of Liu Bei's three armies.

If they lose, they will lose the remaining three states in Guandong, and will also lose a considerable part of the main force. By then, the total size of Cao's army may even fall below the 300,000 mark and drop to more than 200,000.

However, if there are only more than 200,000 combat troops left, it is still enough to defend Guanxi, Heluo and Bingzhou. This piece of land can almost be used to feed more than 200,000 troops. This number is relatively "sustainable development" and will not lead to poverty and death.

Since we can’t support so many soldiers if we lose the Kanto territory, let’s go all out!

If we win, we can keep both the people and the land. If we lose, both the people and the land will shrink to the point where they can barely sustain each other. As for the future, we will take it one step at a time.

Cao Cao struggled for a long time, then heaved a long sigh and said resolutely: "I have made up my mind. From now on, I will quietly mobilize troops from all over the place and try to make preparations for the decisive battle within half a month. Then I will personally lead the army to Hebei and join forces with Yuan Rang to destroy Zhuge Jin and Zhao Yun!
Success or failure depends on this one move! All the civil and military officials must work hard to die! Zhongda, go and prepare first, see where it is most appropriate to transfer troops, and then report to me as soon as possible."

(End of this chapter)