My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 743 The Northern Expedition Begins

When Cao Cao summoned them, Xun Yu, Xun You and Jia Xu naturally did not dare to neglect them.

Within just half an hour, several people arrived at the Prime Minister's Mansion one after another to discuss important military matters.

Among these people, Xun Yu was the one who always stayed in Luoyang. After all, he was the Shangshu Ling of the court, so Cao Cao could always call on him.

In the past two and a half years, Xun You and Jia Xu were often sent out to serve in remote areas, and were only recalled to Luoyang for a small part of the time.

Xun You was stationed in Yecheng most of the time, assisting Xiahou Dun in the defense of Hebei.

Jia Xu also often stayed in Xu County to assist Cao Ren in coordinating the defense of Huaibei and filling in the gaps.

However, at this moment when the situation is becoming increasingly tense, Cao Cao's military sense is also very sensitive, so he called these people back in advance. After arranging the next stage of strategy, he will naturally let them take up their posts again.

After everyone arrived, Cao Cao did not delay and directly raised the question that he had just discussed with Sima Yi and asked everyone again.

"Just now, Zhongda came to report the latest military situation on the front line, saying that Liu Bei had gathered heavy troops in Nanyang and Runan and was making many moves, which seemed to indicate that he was planning to 'besiege Wei to save Zhao'.

I wonder what you think of this? Was Liu Bei's move really for something, or was it just a bluff?

Can it prove that Hebei was indeed empty before, and our army hesitated before, thus missing the opportunity to fight? Or is it that although there was a delay, the opportunity to fight was still there? "

Cao Cao asked very detailed and logical questions. He arranged and combined the situations into four possible outcomes based on the two dimensions of "whether the enemy is bluffing" and "whether our army has missed the opportunity to fight."

No one dared to answer immediately, but first asked for the information presented by Sima Yi, read it carefully, and then gave their own opinions on the two questions respectively.

Xun Yu's attitude was relatively firm among the few people. He felt that Liu Bei was just bluffing, or using the military strategy of "make the enemy strong when weak and make the enemy weak when strong", which meant that he was trying to provoke the enemy and lure them. Therefore, the court should not do anything and just hold on as it is and wait for changes.

It can be regarded as responding to ever-changing situations with constancy.

After hearing Xun Yu's simple words, Cao Cao couldn't help but frown slightly, but he didn't get angry directly.

Cao Cao managed his facial expressions very well. The impatient look only flashed for a moment before he quickly regained his composure, hoping that it would not affect the opinions of Xun You and Jia Xu.

He didn't want to give his opinions hastily before everyone had finished speaking, nor did he want his subordinates to cater to him blindly, as that would cause problems.

Xun You and Jia Xu did not receive any hints, so they expressed their opinions one by one according to their own conscience.

Xun You said, "As Zhongda said, the states controlled by Liu Bei are long and narrow, and it is difficult to mobilize troops. Zhao Yun is being held back by the barbarians in the northeast, which may indeed lead to the emptiness of Youzhou.

But now that Liu Bei has gathered heavy troops in Nanyang and may attack at any time, the court can only respond accordingly. Why bother worrying about something that has already been missed?

However, whether Zhao Yun was really held back by the barbarians in the northeast should be carefully verified. We need more solid evidence and cannot just conclude based on Liu Bei's military gathering."

Xun You's implicit meaning was that he took a non-controversial attitude towards the first question, "whether it was a bluff", that is, he kept his doubts and did not give a conclusion. But for the second question, "whether it missed the opportunity to fight", he gave a very positive answer.

"Whether it's bluffing or not, we have missed the opportunity to fight. Don't try to struggle and provoke a war. Just respond passively."

This is roughly Xun You’s attitude.

The reason he said this had a lot to do with the fact that he was stationed in Yecheng by Cao Cao for a long time to assist Xiahou Dun in coordinating the defense of the Hebei battlefield.

As the chief military advisor of the Hebei war zone, Xun You certainly hoped that the situation in Hebei would be as stable as possible. In the past two years, Liu Bei had obviously become more and more difficult to deal with. Being able to hold on to most of the counties in Jizhou was already a blessing for Xun You.

If Cao Cao asked him to take the initiative to attack, Xun You would definitely feel that there was little hope. The closer the civil and military officers were to the front line in Hebei, the better they understood the situation. The people in the rear were obviously slower to perceive the strength of the enemy and ourselves.

Moreover, Xun You did feel that the wisdom of the Zhuge brothers under Liu Bei's command was difficult to guess. If one had to think about whether the other party had any tactics to confuse the enemy, then just assume that he did. In short, it would not be wrong to be cautious.

As long as there was no solid evidence, he would not look at, listen to, or think about any signs revealed by Liu Bei.

This is the philosophy of life that Xun You recently summed up.

Cao Cao did not comment after hearing this. However, this noncommittal attitude was different from his attitude towards Xun Yu just now. Cao Cao had another idea in his mind, and was going to confront Sima Yi again with Xun Yu's question.

But for now, let's listen to what Jia Xu has to say first.

When Jia Xu saw the Prime Minister looking at him, he did not dare to hesitate. After a quick turn of his eyes, he quickly said in a serious tone:
"My opinion is slightly different from that of Military Advisor Xun. I dare not conclude whether Liu Bei's gathering of troops in Nanyang is a bluff. But I dare not agree that the opportunity to fight in Hebei has been missed.

Whether there was any delay or not, in the final analysis, it all depends on whether the Hebei soldiers are capable of fighting, and whether the court in Henan can hold out with a force smaller than Liu Bei's. This is not something that the planners in the rear can decide.

Although the total number of troops Liu Bei can mobilize now is likely to be greater than that of the imperial court, if he wants to attack, the imperial court can hold out for a long time by clearing the fields and defending the city. If Hebei is really empty, our army can gather a large number of troops and take it within a few months. At least it is possible to cut off the contact between Zhao Yun and Yuan Tan and separate Liu Bei in the northeast with Yishui and the Yellow River as the boundary. "

(Note: After Cao Cao finished his war against Yuan Shao and destroyed Yuan Shang, he gave Xun You the additional title of Central Military Advisor, which has been retained to this day. Therefore, Xun You can be called a military advisor.)
The first half of Jia Xu's words agreed with Xun You, while the second half was the opposite.

So when Cao Cao heard this, he subconsciously combined the first half of the question into one, and then checked them together later, and only picked out the second half to discuss with Jia Xu separately:

"Wen He actually thought that if the court really wanted to use military force against Hebei, it would be possible to at least defeat Zhou Yu and separate Zhao Yun and Yuan Tan? Three years ago, the court sent Zhang He to fight once, and lost nearly 10,000 soldiers and killed Lu Kuang. Wen He would not have forgotten that incident, right?"

Jia Xu was not flustered when asked this question, but said in a sincere and low voice: "The past is a lesson for the future. It is a blessing for the court that the Prime Minister can always remember the lessons.

However, Zhuge Jin and Zhuge Liang were also well versed in the art of war. Perhaps they thought that the prime minister was modest and did not forget the past, so they deliberately set up a confusing formation?
Moreover, I want to say that the situation three years ago was different from today. Three years ago, the imperial court's attacks in the northwest and northeast were all feints. The real purpose was to gather the main forces between Jing and Yu to compete with Liu Bei for Jingbei left after Liu Biao's death.

But now, if the imperial court uses military force against Bohai again, it will not be a feint attack, but a main attack. If a feint attack fails, the main attack may also fail.

Moreover, when the battle was fought, it was spring, the Bohai Sea had thawed, and the Zhang River was navigable. Zhou Yu had a large navy, and it was said that his warships could also enter the sea, making it easier to dispatch between major rivers, and ships from the Yellow River could also sail into the Zhang River.

But now it is late autumn. If we send troops to Hebei again this year, once it is delayed until winter when the Yellow River and the Zhang River freeze and the warships cannot sail, Zhou Yu's navy will be completely useless. So we have to change from one time to another."

Jia Xu's words did not contain any ironclad truths, but they subtly made Cao Cao realize that his previous way of thinking was a bit too wary of "historical records".

Because he had launched the same offensive on the same battlefield and suffered a disastrous defeat, he was left with a psychological shadow. So when he thought of this possible battle scenario again, he inevitably lost his composure and subconsciously wanted to avoid it.

And these words are most appropriate when spoken by Jia Xu, because Jia Xu had personally taught Cao Cao such a lesson during the Battle of Wancheng, which was about how to "overcome the inner demons and take advantage of the enemy's arrogance and laziness after victory" when pursuing the enemy.

At the time of that battle, Zhang Xiu and Jia Xu were still Cao Cao's enemies. The lessons taught by the enemy will naturally leave a deep impression on you.

"Indeed...time has changed now. How can I be trapped by the inner demons of three years ago!" Cao Cao thought to himself, and subconsciously, he was also aroused to overcome his own arrogance.

However, he was still cautious and had to ask the right questions, so after he cheered up, he immediately asked Jia Xu: "So, Wenhe thinks that if the court can seize the opportunity, while blocking Liu Bei, and while taking the opportunity to attack Bohai, it is still very likely to defeat Zhao Yun?"

Jia Xu naturally did not dare to guarantee such a specific question. He just said sincerely: "I am not familiar with the generals in Hebei, and I don't know the current situation of Hebei's military preparations. How dare I speak nonsense?

However, I have been guarding southern Henan with General Zixiao for several years and I am quite familiar with the defense of Huaibei. Even if Liu Bei gathers a large number of troops, with General Zixiao's good defense, as long as the court sends a little reinforcement, it will be no problem for them to hold on for two or three months.

If the imperial court really wants to use troops in Hebei, it should be within two or three months. If it fails, the winter will be too cold and the soldiers will be exhausted after attacking in the wild for a long time. If there is no progress by then, it is time to give up. "

Jia Xu's words did not seem to be an attempt to shirk responsibility, but rather highlighted his own responsibilities and advantages - he had been with Cao Ren in the past few years, so of course he could only guarantee the question of "whether Cao Ren can hold on for a certain period of time". As for Hebei, his soldiers did not know their generals and his generals did not know their soldiers, so how could he make random guarantees?

In other words, he cleverly divided the problem into two parts. The military advisors in Hebei were the problem of the Xun family. The military advisors in Henan were his and Sima Yi's job (Yanzhou still belonged to Cheng Yu).
The major war zones can only agree on a time limit. For example, I can hold out for two months or three months, and if you want to give it a try, then go ahead and fight.

If the time comes and they haven't taken that place yet, and I'm gradually losing strength here and need the court to call back its main forces, then it's not my fault.

Anyway, the division of responsibilities among the parties mainly depends on the time limit.

If the defensive zone fails to hold the position within the agreed time, it is the defensive zone’s fault. If the offensive zone fails to capture the position within the agreed time, it is the offensive zone’s fault.

Xun Yu and Xun You, who were standing by, frowned slightly after hearing what Jia Xu said.

Could it be that Jia Xu also wants to take sides? Not really.

Xun Yu knew that at the beginning of the year, Hua Xin was instructed to test the waters and petition the emperor to confer the title of Duke of Wei as King of Wei. After he and most of the court officials rejected the request, Cao Gong began to have a grudge against him. But even so, his position was not something that Sima Yi or Jia Xu could shake. Would these people not gang up on the Xun family and take action against them?

Or was he just trying to protect himself, distance himself from the situation, and take credit for the success and blame others as a precaution? Perhaps Jia Xu felt that no matter how he advised, the prime minister would probably try to use troops in Hebei? Did he hope that when the time came, the prime minister would stop and make clear the merits and demerits?
Xun Yu was unwilling to speculate on the infighting among the factions of his own camp with the greatest malice, so for the time being, this was all he could think of.

It’s not that Xun Yu lacks political wisdom, but his character makes him subconsciously unwilling to think in a worse direction.

Cao Cao should have noticed Jia Xu's attitude. Although it was helpful in distinguishing merits and demerits, it was somewhat bad for the uncle and nephew of the Xun family.

Xun Yu advocated that "no vacancy in Hebei" was allowed. Among the various intelligence reports submitted previously, some of which said that Zhao Yun was being restrained, Xun Yu felt that there was insufficient evidence and did not report them seriously.

Xun You was in charge of the Hebei defense zone. If Hebei eventually needed troops but was not conquered, Xun You would be more or less implicated.

However, Cao Cao's relationship with Xun Yu had been tense recently, so although he could clearly think of this, he was too lazy to think about it for the time being.

Anyway, there is nothing wrong in doing business impartially. It's just that he doesn't remember the old friendship, not that he is actively making things difficult for Xun Yu.

After Cao Cao had sorted out his thoughts, he finally turned back to Sima Yi and Xun Yu and solemnly asked a question:
"Zhongda, it seems that Gongda and Wenhe still have some doubts about whether Hebei is really empty and whether Zhao Yun is really restrained. Their opinions are to put aside the dispute and discuss the opportunity first. So, you still have to find more accurate information.

Also, Wen Ruo, why didn't you report Zhao Yun's current situation back from Hebei?"

Cao Cao first asked Sima Yi, but that question was more complicated. Xun Yu's rebuke was easier to answer, so Xun Yu immediately answered:

"I have not concealed any information. All reports from the front line are summarized and submitted on a daily basis."

Cao Cao frowned and asked someone to check again, and found that he really could not find any fault with Xun Yu.

He could see that Xun Yu really didn't believe the news that "Zhao Yun was stuck in a quagmire", but Xun Yu had reported it before, but he did it in a more covert way.

To give an inappropriate example, it's like there's an episode in "Yes, Prime Minister" where Humphrey didn't want Jim Hack to see a certain report, so he stuffed the report at the bottom of the last box of five large boxes of documents given to the Prime Minister every day - because he knew the Prime Minister didn't have that much energy to read all five boxes of documents every day.

Similarly, Cao Cao was also very busy. It would be very easy for Xun Yu to report some things that he thought were unimportant and hope that Cao Cao would not see it. Cao Cao also did not have the energy to read all the things sent by his subordinates.

Cao Cao had no choice but to give up pursuing the matter, but in his heart he became a little more displeased with Xun Yu.

On the other hand, Sima Yi, after tidying up his words, also answered Cao Cao's question sincerely:
"In fact, I have also found some evidence that can indirectly prove that Zhao Yun is stuck in the quagmire in the northeast, but I am still seeking confirmation, so I dare not report it. Prime Minister, please give me a little time to verify it. I will go to the general for inspection tomorrow, and then we will know the result."

Cao Cao was a little confused, but he didn't refuse, so the matter was settled.

……

The next morning, Cao Cao and the ministers who had discussed matters yesterday went together to the General's Office in Luoyang City.

The Jiangzuojian was the government office in charge of engineering construction, so the evidence mentioned by Sima Yi was obviously related to construction. The government office here occupied a large area, and there were some official workshops behind it.

Cao Cao was also very curious, so he was in high spirits during the inspection.

In the empty field behind the Ministry of Works, Cao Cao first saw several compact earthen houses of strange shapes, which looked hastily built and very crude. There were also some other structures.

Cao Cao pointed to the house and asked about the whole story, hoping Sima Yi would explain.

Sima Yi then told him the truth: “Prime Minister, people are saying that Zhao Yun’s troops are in the northeast and cannot bear the cold weather in late autumn. They are also worried that they will not be able to wipe out the remaining Fuyu enemies after winter, so they will take advantage of the cold weather to come back.

So Liu Bei's army built this house, saying that it was a place for the military households who moved to Buyeo to live together in the severe winter to keep warm. Although the house was separated by earth walls, there was a chimney at the bottom, so firewood could be burned for heating.

The cold weather in Buyeo is very severe. If every household makes their own fire, they will have difficulty in getting firewood. If the doors and windows are sealed tightly, it will be stuffy. If they are not sealed, they will not be able to withstand the cold wind. After using this house, the heat will flow through the whole house from the bottom, and the smoke will be discharged from both ends. If Zhao Yun had not been unable to eliminate the resistance of Buyeo, why would he have painstakingly thought of ways to ensure that the soldiers in the military settlement had to spend the winter in Buyeo's homeland? "

After Sima Yi's brief explanation, Cao Cao personally inspected the earthen house with a kang and connected chimneys, and was quite inspired.

He could see that this new house would be very useful for stationing in extremely cold areas.

How could the original houses in the Han Dynasty have a structure for heating kangs? People at that time could not survive in the hinterland of Northeast China, and there was no need to develop such wintering technology in such an extremely cold environment.

Burning charcoal pots directly indoors can easily lead to carbon monoxide poisoning - although the ancients did not know what carbon monoxide was, they also knew how to observe the symptoms of poisoning and knew that sealing the doors and windows and burning fire for heating could be fatal.

For heating the kang, the flue can be built under the house, and a very long flue can be built to connect several houses with connected walls. This can also be considered "central heating."

These things are really useful, which makes Cao Cao believe more about the predicament Zhao Yun is facing.

Cao Cao couldn't help but sigh and curse, "This kind of house suitable for keeping out the cold, is it Zhuge Jin's idea? He really takes good care of his brother-in-law! Zhao Yun couldn't accomplish his mission in Fuyu, so he helped him like this!

However, things themselves are neither good nor bad. Since this kind of house is useful, it can be used in Yanmen and Shuofang! As long as it is a place with extremely cold winters that the Han people are not used to, building a house like this can make it easier to keep warm and help the Han people gain a foothold in the north. "

Cao Cao quickly realized that he could also use this technology. After all, Liu Bei was not the only one bordering the Rongdi in the north. The imperial court's directly-administered territories also had contact with the Rongdi.

It's just that Cao Cao doesn't have that much energy to build up Shuofang and deepen his control. At present, he just wants Kebi to submit in name and be at his disposal in reality. It's not his turn to farm and develop.

In addition to the kang-burning house connected to the flue, Sima Yi also took Cao Cao to see one or two other things with some technical innovations in the General's Office. These were all things that made it easier for the Han people to spend the winter in extremely cold environments. It was said that they were all things that Zhao Yun had just figured out and was preparing to use.

As a result, Cao Cao became more and more convinced that Zhuge Jin would not deliberately use real technical intelligence to spread false information.

The spies who came from Hebei were able to find out so much circumstantial evidence that Zhao Yun was stuck in a quagmire, so they had to resort to various technical means to ensure Zhao Yun's long-term military occupation.

So, Zhao Yun was really stuck in a quagmire.

Cao Cao was very confident.

As a result, he became increasingly displeased with Xun Yu's previous behavior of claiming that he had not concealed any information, but in fact "putting the report that he thought was unimportant at the bottom."

Cao Cao also disliked his nephew Xun You's attitude of "not wanting another war in Hebei".

Combining various factors, Cao Cao finally made a decision:

Just as Sima Yi and Jia Xu suggested, it was determined that Zhao Yun had indeed fallen into a quagmire before, and there should still be some window of opportunity left.

At the same time, even if the Huaibei battlefield is invaded by Liu Bei, it should be able to hold out for three months.

During these three months, we will give Xun You and Xiahou Dun some pressure and let them give it a try.

Three years ago, the Hebei battlefield was a feint attack to draw hatred. Today, we are finally going to play the main role.

Within two or three months, do it boldly. After two or three months, if Cao Ren and Jia Xu show signs of decline and are in imminent danger, then withdraw the offensive troops from Hebei and stop dreaming.

After thinking everything through, Cao Cao made the decision arbitrarily and then conveyed the decision to the uncle and nephew of the Xun family in the tone of a notification.

When Xun Yu heard this, he wanted to remind and object, but was stopped by Xun You.

"Uncle, it's no use."

Xun Yu was puzzled: "Why is it useless?"

Xun You sighed, "At this point, the Prime Minister's trust in you and me is not even as high as that in the Sima brothers and Jia Xu. If we try to dissuade them now, the Prime Minister will only think that we are cowardly and afraid of taking responsibility.

Even if the offensive in Hebei is not going well in the future, the Prime Minister will only think that it was my poor performance, not Jia Wenhe's poor advice. Our Xun family is already in a dilemma."

Xun Yu was stunned, but in the end he had no choice but to accept the result.

(End of this chapter)