My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 695: The Account Is Not Calculated That Way

Liu Bei listened to Zhuge Liang's detailed report on the scale of troops and the timing of the deployment if military action was to be taken against Nanzhong in the future.

Based on this scale and duration, there would not be too much pressure on the accumulation of money and grain for the Northern Expedition.

However, the specific benefits of the expedition to the south are still unclear, so Liu Bei, Guan Yu and Zhang Fei are still somewhat confused.

After all, "investment return analysis" not only considers how much you spend, but also how much you earn. If you earn little, low costs don't mean much.

So after sorting out the context of the matter, Liu Bei quickly shifted his focus to this issue, hoping that Zhuge Liang could make some more explanations.

Zhuge Liang answered all the questions: "Although Nanzhong is not under the rule of the king, it has vast land and abundant products. After the trade is unblocked, the cattle and horses, glue, paint, leather, tendons, and herbs produced in the hot and humid areas of Nanzhong can all be used for military supplies.

As for gold, silver, copper and other things, the South produces a lot of them. But our army now has the copper and silver mines in Yuzhang, so these are not too scarce. The output of the South is just icing on the cake."

Liu Bei, Guan Yu and others usually didn't know much about this information. After listening to Zhuge Liang's statement, they didn't think that these material benefits were that great. Unless the output was really amazing, it didn't seem worth fighting for such a small amount of things.

Liu Bei did not question it immediately, but Guan Yu at the side could not help but ask first:

"Sir, your calculations have always been ingenious, and I have never dared to question them. However, cattle and horses have been the specialties of the northern Hu people since ancient times. The grasslands are thousands of miles long and can support millions of cattle and horses.

Our army now has half of Youzhou, and Zilong controls Liaodong and the Three Han. If we expect to get more cattle and horses, it would be better to develop Liaodong in the next two years, or increase trade with Buyeo and Goguryeo. Why bother asking for cattle and horses from Nanzhong?
If we don’t consider the benefits of cattle and horses, the remaining glue, paint, tendons, leather, and herbs don’t seem to be worth fighting for.”

What Guan Yu said was actually the doubt in everyone's mind, so several people in the hall looked at Zhuge Liang at the same time, hoping that he could give more explanations.

Zhuge Liang wanted to explain immediately, but he seemed to realize that he had "speaked against the majority opinion" too many times today and needed to consider his tone and rhythm so as not to appear too aggressive.

Fortunately, this question involves some common knowledge of geography and resources, and it is not only Zhuge Liang who can answer it.

So Zhuge Jin, who had just been drinking and watching the show, helped his brother answer the question as a bystander:
"The cattle and horses of the South are quite different from those of the North. Although the Yunnan horses are not good at running, they have long endurance and are good at climbing. The cattle of the South are also more suitable for farming in hilly woodlands, which is exactly convenient for our army to expand the reclamation of wasteland in the southern states.

Yi, Jing, and Yang are vast, sparsely populated compared to the north, and have enormous potential for development. So in the long run, these can greatly help the strength of our Han Dynasty, and the benefits cannot be underestimated. "

In ancient times, cattle raised on the northern grasslands were primarily yellow cattle, and they were mostly confined to the Yellow River basin and the North China Plain for farming. In the hilly southern regions, where the climate was hot and humid, water buffaloes were still the primary herd, making both northern and southern cattle-producing areas important.

During the Eastern Han Dynasty, the level of development of Jiangdong was quite low. At most, the entire Wujun area was developed. As for Kuaiji, it was only developed to the coast of Zhejiang.

One of the major constraints was that the scale of buffalo breeding was not large enough during the Eastern Han Dynasty, and there was a lack of animal power for farming further south.

Liu Bei's camp has now completely occupied the south. Increasing the scale of cattle breeding in the south will have a very significant effect on the long-term growth of national strength.

After Zhuge Jin helped his second brother to clarify this point, he did not forget to draw inferences from one instance and analyzed, "Moreover, as far as I know, in the counties of Southern China, the people are not even very proficient in farming.

It is obviously humid and rainy, and the weather is mild, which is suitable for farming, but the people do not know how to fertilize the fields, so they grow less rice. If our army can pacify Nanzhong and teach the Nanzhong barbarians who are loyal to the Han Dynasty how to fertilize the fields and grow rice, and combine it with Linyi rice, which is suitable for the local climate, Nanzhong will surely be used by the Han Dynasty in the long run, and the local population will be able to multiply several times. "

What Zhuge Jin said was also based on the local geographical and climatic conditions.

Although he had never been to South China in this life, he had traveled to Yunnan and Guizhou several times in his previous life and had seen with his own eyes that a lot of the land in Yunnan was red.

He was very curious at the time, so he asked the local tour guide, and learned that the red soil turned red because there was too much rainfall, which washed away the nutrients in the soil, leaving only soil rich in iron.

Therefore, the bottleneck in the development of high-yield agriculture in the Yunnan-Guizhou region in ancient times was mainly the lack of artificial fertilization.

The temperature and precipitation conditions there are already very favorable, with so much rain and such a warm climate, it is definitely enough to grow three rice crops a year. But the soil fertility is not enough, which is the biggest shortcoming.

During the Eastern Han Dynasty, even the Han farmers in the north seldom fertilized large areas of the fields, because the population was not large at that time, and there were plenty of fields for the people to rest and rotate.

If a field has been planted with wheat for two years and its fertility has declined, it's left there to grow naturally for another year or two while another field is planted. The most diligent farmer might simply sow beans on a fallow field, rotating it with beans for a season to fertilize it.

As for applying fertilizers to fields on a large scale, it could only have happened in dynasties like the Tang and Song dynasties, when the population density was high and there was no room for fallow, so the land had to be cultivated intensively.

Historically, it was only after the Han people developed the habit of comprehensively fertilizing the land that the agricultural development in Yunnan and Guizhou regions really caught up and the production methods gradually became completely Sinicized.

Zhuge Jin knew the development context here, so he naturally knew how to help his second brother plan and implement this benevolent policy hundreds of years in advance, so that the Nanzhong barbarian tribe, which was originally just the "Southwestern Yi", could integrate into the Han people's production methods as soon as possible.

So after he had sorted out the cause and effect, he continued to help his second brother explain the benefits:

"…So, I think that if we can really take over Nanzhong and transform it, the benefits will still be very considerable. My Lord, Yunchang, we can't use the current population and land size of Nanzhong to estimate the long-term benefits.

As long as we expand the breeding of southern cattle and teach the people of Nanzhong how to fertilize, the population of Nanzhong, which is less than two million now, may increase several times in the future, and the land in Nanzhong can definitely feed them. Once their production methods are highly integrated with the Han people and they have to exchange what they have, Nanzhong will never rebel again. "

Liu Bei saw that the Zhuge brothers actually had such a consensus on this issue, and that they analyzed it from different angles. They were thousands of miles apart and had indeed not "conspired" before. Liu Bei felt in his heart that this matter was at least 70% to 80% reliable.

Since the long-term benefits are so obvious, it is not impossible to train the troops a little during the rest period before the Northern Expedition.

Anyway, the old army left by Liu Zhang and Liu Biao was too weak. If these troops were directly sent to fight Cao Cao's veterans without actual combat training, they would definitely suffer a loss. Even if the equipment had obvious advantages, it might not be able to completely make up for the gap in the quality of the troops and their fighting will.

Zhuge Liang saw the change in his lord's expression and knew that his lord was almost convinced, so he gave his elder brother a look of gratitude.

I didn't expect that my elder brother, who was in Jingzhou and had never been to Shuzhong, had a solid understanding of the situation in Nanzhong. I guess he had read too many historical books about the Southwest Yi, so he could know what was going on in the world without leaving home.

Therefore, in order to make the lord completely firm in his determination, Zhuge Liang also threw out the last reason for the settlement:
"In fact, whether to launch a limited southern expedition or not is a question we haven't considered yet. As we all know, if we wait for the two years of the Northern Expedition, we can let most of the soldiers return to the fields and turn them into military settlements to encourage farming, which can indeed save a lot of military rations.

But the problem was that the old army left by Liu Zhang and Liu Biao had previously lacked training and military discipline, and had little actual combat experience. If they were to be able to form combat effectiveness in the future Northern Expedition, they would have to make use of the past two years to conduct intensive training, even if they were not allowed to participate in actual combat.

Concentrated training also requires the consumption of food and grass. As long as the military settlement cannot be self-sufficient, these soldiers and horses will have the same labor costs as living and traveling. In this case, why not use war instead of training? Besides, the enemy is not strong.

Furthermore, we have previously overlooked the fact that, due to the formidable Qinling Mountains, our army will no longer be able to march northwards through them in our future campaigns against Cao Cao. Therefore, Yizhou's grain and money, if used for the Northern Expedition, must be transported down the Yangtze River to Jingzhou, and then northwards from there.

Transportation also consumes a lot of materials and there are losses along the way, so one stone of rice in Yizhou may only be able to play the role of seven or eight buckets in Jingzhou. In this case, before the Northern Expedition begins, it is better to deploy those troops that are numerous but not elite, need to be trained but cannot be temporarily disbanded, to Yizhou for training.

In such a peaceful period, we can obtain food locally in Yizhou and save food and grass in Jing, Yang, and Xu for future all-out offensive campaigns. This is also a way to save money for the overall planning of the Northern Expedition. "

Zhuge Liang's mention of "the labor and expense of living and traveling are just the same" was not mentioned until he wrote "The Second Letter to the Emperor on Departure", but Zhuge Liang had obviously thought of the principle behind it a long time ago.

Not fighting can save food, but that is based on the premise that the labor force of these troops can be liberated and the military settlements can support themselves.

If the army has to be laid off even if it doesn't fight, then how big a difference can there be in cost between fighting and not fighting?
And most importantly, Zhuge Liang also noticed the closed geographical characteristics of Yizhou.

If bulk materials from Yizhou need to be shipped out, transportation costs are always a major issue that cannot be avoided.

So an ordinary soldier who is not very elite was placed in Yizhou to eat food for two years, and to gain experience in small-scale combat while training.

It is definitely more economical than garrisoning him in other states outside Yizhou and then transporting the grain from Yizhou when war comes.

The most ideal situation is that on the day when the Northern Expedition begins, the local grain in Yizhou will be used to feed and train the army in peacetime, and there is no need to transport it outside. All the food in the outside world will be saved and used directly in the Northern Expedition, which will at least increase the overall efficiency by several percent.

Liu Bei and Guan Yu had never done this math before.

After Zhuge Liang sorted out the accounts, Liu Bei finally felt refreshed and had to admit that Zhuge Liang's plan was indeed the most appropriate.

After Liu Bei figured it out, he finally made the decision: "In this case, what else can I worry about? In the next two years, whether to use troops in Nanzhong and when to use troops will all be decided by Kong Ming.

When the fighting in Xinye and Wancheng stopped, the newly surrendered troops in Jingzhou were also taken to Yizhou for food and took turns training for the southern expedition.

In my opinion, since Yuexi and Zangke counties are located in different places, the time of attacking these counties can be staggered, and the troops mobilized can also be different. This will allow more troops to gain experience and lay a more solid foundation for the future Northern Expedition. "

Liu Bei's final conclusion was that he had learned to draw inferences from one example and wanted to use the same resources and money to allow more troops to gain basic experience in actual combat.

Didn't Zhuge Liang say that to deal with Nanzhong, an army of 30,000 people would be needed over half a year? If so, it is entirely possible to use 30,000 people to fight at different times, but not the same 30,000 people.

For example, the weather in Zangke County is the coolest, so we can attack it first. Then we can wait until autumn and move 30,000 people in the direction of Zangke County. It will take a season to take over Zangke.

Yuexi County is not as cool as Zangke County, so we have to wait until winter to fight. Then we can transfer another 30,000 people from Shu County and finish the job within one season.

After taking care of the left and right wings, the road to the south to Yizhou County (Jianning County) was cleared, and another 30,000 people were used to kill Yong Kai of Jianning.

By this calculation, wouldn't it be possible for 90,000 people to get a chance to fight in actual combat? And the number of people called up at the same time did not exceed 30,000, so the loss of organization and logistics would not increase due to the additional complexity.

This style of fighting is actually somewhat similar to the "rotational training" of later generations.

But the difference is that if you are facing a single battlefield, "rotational warfare" requires additional transportation costs. You have to transport different troops to the front line one after another for actual combat training, and then pull back the old and experienced troops.

However, when Zhuge Liang used different troops for each county to deal with the three counties in the south, this problem would not exist. The three counties were not in the same direction, so the transportation cost of mobilizing troops would not be added, and there would be no need to take extra detours.

At most, the troops heading to the farthest Yizhou County may have to take a similar route to Jianning County, marching along the Qionglai River Valley in Liangshan.

But this detour is almost negligible compared to the overall "logistics cost".

In the end, with the joint efforts of the top leaders of Liu Bei's camp, the mutual confirmation of the Zhuge brothers that "the truth becomes clearer the more they debate", and Liu Bei's own finishing touch, the plan was finally successfully implemented.

Because the last additional suggestion of saving costs was thought of by Liu Bei himself, he felt more familiar with this decision, and it would be increasingly unlikely for him to change his mind and overturn this idea in the future.

The matter has been settled and is a done deal.

……

Having finalized the main purpose of his trip to Xiangyang, Zhuge Liang finally put his mind to rest.

However, the deployment of troops against Zangke County will have to be delayed until at least the autumn harvest season this year.

Other daily tasks of governing Shu and carrying out the reform have also been arranged and carried out, so Zhuge Liang himself does not need to worry about it for the time being.

It is not easy for Zhuge Liang to come to Jingzhou. He must have stayed for a while to report his work to his lord and talk about more details. This will also deepen the personnel coordination among the top management of Liu Bei's group and let Liu Bei know more about the people's livelihood in Shu.

Moreover, Brother Zhuge hasn’t seen each other for several years, and he must have a lot of opinions to exchange.

The two brothers were both top wise men of the time, and they had more or less different views on the subsequent Northern Expedition policies and strategic progress.

Liu Bei also wanted to see the collision of ideas between these two brothers, so he pulled Zhuge Jin to discuss with them every day, which could help the truth become clearer through debate.

Before that, that is, before Zhuge Liang came to Xiangyang, Liu Bei asked Zhuge Jin to make a preliminary plan for the subsequent pace of the Northern Expedition.

Let him roughly deduce how many years it might take to deal with Cao Cao. How to arrange the farming and conquest to ensure a proper balance between tension and relaxation.

Now that Zhuge Liang has arrived, Liu Bei will inevitably have to let the two brothers confirm each other's views on the same issue in order to feel more secure and at ease.

After listening to his lord's doubts and his elder brother's original plan, Zhuge Liang felt that it was basically the same.

After all, it was just a deduction, so as long as the general direction was good, who could think so accurately? If there were some disagreements on the details, it was impossible for Zhuge Liang to refute them directly without any consideration.

Therefore, after careful consideration, Zhuge Liang only pointed out some minor issues: "I basically agree with what you said, brother. In the future, when we go north to suppress the rebellion, we should first take the states in Guandong and the Central Plains, and then go from east to west and gradually conquer them.

However, according to my calculations of the situation, once the Central Plains changes its master, Heluo, Yongliang and other places will not be able to hold out for two or three years, and may not even last a year. By then, perhaps some of Cao's guards and generals will turn against him and send Cao's head as a tribute.

The battle of Luoyang may be the final battle for our army to destroy Cao. If all goes well, the final victory or defeat may be decided in Yecheng."

Zhuge Liang's expectation was earth-shattering and much more radical than Zhuge Jin's.

Zhuge Jin was slightly stunned when he heard this, because he felt that this was too daring to think about.

Of course, out of trust in his second brother's fortune-telling skills, Zhuge Jin quickly reflected on himself and began to review whether he had missed anything in his previous calculations.

"Did I play too many games in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms series in my previous life? So I overestimated the will of Cao Cao's camp to resist to the end? That's possible. In the game, for the sake of confrontation, don't the weak princes fight to the death?

In many versions of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, even if the enemy is reduced to only one or two cities, it is very difficult to persuade them to surrender, and they must be completely annihilated by force. Am I being blinded by this kind of thinking inertia?"

Zhuge Jin actually felt shaken in his heart.

Zhuge Jin was so self-doubting that he couldn't immediately refute his second brother's ideas.

Liu Bei, who was judging from the middle, seemed to be a clear-headed bystander. His trust in Ziyu was never less than that of Kong Ming, so he helped Zhuge Jin to defend himself:
"If we take Luoyang in the future, the world will be able to resist? Isn't this idea too optimistic? Although Chang'an is in ruins, after five or six years of restoration, even if the entire Guanzhong area has not recovered to a million households, it will still have 500,000.

Add to that Xiliang and Longxi, as well as the Qiang and Hu who have naturalized in recent years, and the total population is definitely over a million, and the proportion of combat-ready soldiers is much higher than that of Guandong. Guanzhong has the four barriers of Qin, so how could it not be able to hold out for a year or two?"

Zhuge Liang just shook his head in disapproval, waving his folding fan, and analyzed: "My lord, please think about it. The precedents of Dong Zhuo, Li Jue and Guo Si are still before us. Those who hold the emperor hostage will lose the emperor or the old capital.

With the Han Dynasty having lasted for more than 400 years, people still remember the Han Dynasty. How long can a person who is regarded as a traitor and has lost his moral integrity survive?

When Li Jue lost the throne, he was welcomed to Xu Du by Cao Cao. Less than two years later, Li Jue died at the hands of Duan Wei without Cao Cao having to do anything himself.

Dong Zhuo abducted the emperor and persecuted Luoyang. Although he escaped, he was killed by Wang Yun and Lu Bu less than two years later. This was also accomplished by the officials and people of Guanzhong on their own when the princes of Guandong did not make all-out efforts to fight against Dong.

Now my lord has already controlled half of the world. If he can pacify the states in Guandong and the Central Plains in the future, Cao Cao will only have the land west of Taihang Mountain. If Cao Cao loses his position of holding the emperor hostage, he may lose his country.

Even if the lord does not take action, it is estimated that within two years, someone may cut off Cao Cao's head and offer it to save their family. Moreover, the lord will definitely not sit and wait, and will definitely lead a large army to pursue the enemy in order to seek internal and external cooperation. In this way, Cao Cao's defeat will only be faster.

So I think that my brother's previous judgment was based on the fact that "people in the world were confused and didn't know where to go, and the kings and princes changed year by year." It was precisely because people's hearts were unstable that no matter who was strong in military and horse, the people could be easily subdued without asking about the legitimacy. Even if he was a tyrant, the people would help him to do evil.

But the world today is not the world of the late Qin Dynasty. Our Han Dynasty has been around for more than 400 years, and there are always loyal and righteous people who care about the Han Dynasty. The rebels want to overthrow the Han Dynasty, and the loyal and righteous people will resist to the death and never surrender.

But if the Han Dynasty wants to revive, as long as it clearly controls more than half of the country and lets the people see the trend of revival, the usurpers will soon collapse. Dong Zhuo, Li Jue and Guo Si are clear evidence of this, so why should you be too modest? "

After listening to Zhuge Liang's thorough analysis and seeing so many analogies and solid evidence, Liu Bei finally gradually changed his mind.

He couldn't help but look at Zhuge Jin on the other side with a slightly amused expression, wanting to hear how Zhuge Jin would refute: "What Kong Ming just said is not without reason, I wonder what Zi Yu thinks?"

Facing his second brother's defense and his master's question, Zhuge Jin did not intend to argue at all, nor did he feel ashamed because he might have been wrong before. He just thought about it seriously, trying to find the answer in his heart based on the facts.

"What my second brother said seems to make more sense... Only when people do not care about right and wrong will the common people and soldiers mindlessly resist to the end for a military leader who only has military force.

In an era when people still have a sense of order, a tyrant who relies solely on military deterrence to maintain power should collapse quickly once he loses his military advantage...but why do I always feel that something is wrong?"

Zhuge Jin pondered over it again and again in his mind, and finally, he found the problem.

"No! If this is the case, then why did Liu Bang conquer the world so quickly? He conquered the world in just seven or eight years, but during the reign of Liu Xiu and Wang Mang, it took Liu Xiu twelve years to reunify the world!

Moreover, after Liu Xiu unified Guandong, it took him six years to deal with the remaining Guanzhong Xiao and Bashu Gongsun Shu! It is said that Liu Xiu, who had already obtained the territories of the six states in Guandong at that time, should not have surrendered quickly to the Guanxi princes who only had the former Qin territory and whose hearts were still thinking about the Han Dynasty?

Even if Gongsun Shu and his men were stubborn, shouldn't their subordinates have killed Gongsun Shu and surrendered to the Han in the hope of wealth and fame?"

Thinking of this, Zhuge Jin finally realized something and sorted out his thoughts completely.

(End of this chapter)