My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 663: Victory can be known, but not achieved. Zhuge Jin is responsible for knowing, and Heaven is responsible for achieving
Cao Ren and Yu Jin were both blinded and tempted by the phased progress made by Cao's army.

As a result, they temporarily forgot to break away from the blind perspective of the authorities and look at the overall situation of the Jingbei battlefield from a higher angle.

Guan Yu, Gao Shun and Huang Zhong on the opposite side cooperated very well. They used resilient defense and seemingly slightly disadvantageous harassment to continuously strengthen the beliefs of Cao Ren and Yu Jin, making them temporarily blind.

So, time dragged on day after day.

During this time, there were capable people in Cao's army who saw the problem.

Although Jia Xu was also confused by the situation and believed in the information he obtained from torturing the prisoners, he was unable to raise any objections for the time being.

However, Guo Jia, who was in Fancheng on the other side of the river, although seriously ill, seemed to be able to see the situation more clearly than an outsider.

Guo Jia discovered some clues through Xu Huang's retelling and analysis of the order Cao Ren gave to Xu Huang to send troops to reinforce.

Then he wrote a letter and had someone send it across the Han River to Xiangyang to remind Cao Ren to pay attention to Huang Zhong's movements and not to be fooled by Guan Yu's false impression that "he was waiting for Huang Zhong to return and join forces before a decisive battle."

It is imperative to find out whether Huang Zhong has withdrawn his troops or continues to defend Zhuyang, Shandu and other counties west of Xiangyang with heavy troops.

Cao Ren did not ignore the reminder made by Guo Jia when he was seriously ill.

He did send a small number of scouts to scout in the direction of Shandu County. But unfortunately, Cao Ren would not disperse too many troops for such a level of investigation. Therefore, Huang Zhong did not need to use many troops to prevent Cao's army from spying deeply.

The final result of the reconnaissance was that the scouts sent by Cao Ren indeed discovered a considerable number of Liu Bei's troops on the way, retreating from Shandu County to Bian County in the rear, and then turning east from Bian County to Yicheng.

From the surface, it was obvious that the intention was to first gather troops in Yicheng, then go north along the main stream of the Han River, and then go upstream through Lumen Mountain to Yuliangzhou for a decisive battle.

From this we can see that Huang Zhong's troops were indeed ordered by Liu Bei and Zhuge Jin to be pulled back from the western front of the battlefield and attempted to be redeployed to the eastern front.

It was only because of this kind of convergence that they had to bypass Cao's defense zone and make a slight detour that the process was slightly slow.

But no matter what, it is a fact that Huang Zhong weakened his military forces on the western front and had no long-term plans.

After finding out this, Cao Ren further strengthened his determination to "decisively weaken Guan Yu and Gao Shun before Huang Zhong arrives" and he no longer had any second thoughts.

One day, two days, and another two days passed since Cao Ren took over the outer defense line and commanding heights of Yuliangzhou Water Fort.

It would obviously be very difficult for Gao Shun's troops to hold on to the remaining camps for a long time relying solely on their small number.

Gao Shun's soldiers' willpower and discipline were unquestionable, and their equipment was not bad either. But the key point was that the soldiers had been in a long-term war of attrition, and they had not been able to get any rest. Their physical strength had been stretched to the limit, and their combat effectiveness was inevitably reduced.

However, the specific date of when the decisive battle would come was not something Guan Yu could decide.

It depends on the weather.

The autumn rain was not heavy enough, the original water level of the Han River was not strong enough, and the amount of water stored on Huang Zhong's side was not enough.

If he was not satisfied with any point, Guan Yu could only choose to delay a little longer, even for two days, one day, or half a day.

This cannot be changed by human will; it is a law of nature.

Therefore, in order to allow Gao Shun to hold out for a few more days, Guan Yu had to make an exception and directly send troops to Yuliangzhou Water Fort for reinforcement when the situation was critical.

The reinforcements landed directly at the dock area and some wounded soldiers were transported out at the same time.

However, this process seems to be very difficult.

Because Cao Ren had already built a new catapult position and set up a number of improved Thunderbolt chariots on the commanding heights of Yuliangzhou Peninsula.

After the catapult was completed, Cao Ren had people test-fire it repeatedly. Even if there were no ships moored at the dock, it would be better to smash the pier facilities first.

In this way, if Guan Yu later transports reinforcements, military supplies, and food, the broken dock can slow down Guan Yu's unloading of people and goods, giving Cao Ren more time to cause damage and consume the resources.

During this process, Cao Ren accidentally discovered a pattern without any guidance - he could use repeated test firings in advance to figure out the trajectory of the catapult.

Once the catapult can accurately hit the berth, record the shooting angle and strength, and then there is no need to change it. Next time you shoot according to this data, you will be able to hit the berth almost exactly.

In this era, there was no such thing as ballistics. Or, in other words, apart from the Zhuge brothers, there was no one else in the world who had this idea.

This time, Cao Ren had the right time and place, and all the chances came together.

Historically, in the early days of ballistics, there were many artillery generals who knew how to calculate the ballistic tables of port coastal defense guns and fortress guns, and then divide the fire coverage area into small blocks.

When recording the bombardment of each small block, the angle, elevation and charge of the cannon should be set accordingly.

When actual combat occurs and the enemy is found entering the target area, you can directly look up the table and shoot.

Today, Cao Ren didn't even need to make a complete ballistic zone correspondence table. He only needed to record the data of the points that bombarded the berths in the dock area.

Therefore, if Guan Yu's warships were in motion on the channel entering or leaving the dock area, Cao Ren had no hope of hitting them. He would only attack the ships docked there, hitting fixed targets.

From this point of view, Cao Ren's folk experience summary is still very different from the systematic ballistic tables of later generations. He only summarized a few specific solutions.

Of course, Cao Ren's math skills were not good enough, and he didn't know how to calculate the trajectory. He could only record the results based on his experience of repeated experiments, form a specific trajectory table, and summarize and apply it.

Its scope of application will also be greatly restricted. It is not universal and has not been mathematically refined. What does the mathematical principles, physical principles, and algorithms behind it have to do with Cao Ren?
However, even so, the power of Cao Ren's catapult position was initially demonstrated.

When Gao Shun could no longer hold on, Guan Yu sent warships to risk approaching the Yuliangzhou Water Fort Pier. However, when unloading people and transporting the wounded, they were still "bombarded" by Cao Ren's catapults on the high ground.

The several fixed target warships and battleships parked there were all subjected to unilateral bombardment in vain.

Several warships were directly sunk, and large ships of the fighting ship level were hit by stone bullets, with their masts and hulls broken and wood pieces flying everywhere, and many soldiers were injured.

Cao Ren was standing on the top of the mountain, watching Guan Yu's reinforcements being blocked by Bai Bai's firepower before they even reached the shore, and he laughed triumphantly. In this way, he was no longer worried about Guan Yu's reinforcements.

You, Guan Yu, are too arrogant! You wanted to consume our army before, and were unwilling to send reinforcements. You wanted to wait for Huang Zhong to arrive before the decisive battle!

As a result, Gao Shun was weaker than you expected, and he didn't make it until then! I didn't expect that I could build a trebuchet position at the commanding heights of Yuliangzhou to block the dock! Now I regret it, and it's too late to send reinforcements! I will skin you on the way!

However, the effect of Guan Yu's reinforcement under Cao Ren's firepower was still very obvious. The only thing he suffered was some consumption by the enemy during the reinforcement process.

Because Gao Shun received some reinforcements from fresh troops and his main troops were able to rest and rotate, he was able to continue to hold the remaining camp in Yuliangzhou Water Fort with a little more ease.

Gao Shun's troops were still very elite after all. They had only suffered from continuous fighting, and their condition, physical strength and energy had declined too seriously.

As long as he can rest, Gao Shun can make Cao Ren pay enough price and time.

However, Cao Ren was proud of the fact that "every time Guan Yu brought reinforcements, they would be smashed by my catapults" and was not so worried about the slowdown in the progress of the attack.

This slowdown finally allowed Guan Yu to buy enough time.

You can’t go against God’s will, but you can delay it.

As long as we wait until the natural changes in the weather occur, God's will will be violated.

The water attack strategy planned by Zhuge Jin and Guan Yu was not originally mature in the autumn of the 13th year of Jian'an.

However, before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the autumn rains in Xiangfan and the middle reaches of the Han River will gradually become heavier, and the flood season will approach. This general trend of natural laws will not change.

Since the timing was not right, Guan Yu used his tenacity and the method of giving the enemy some benefits to force the timing to mature.

Finally, on the third day of August, seven days had passed since Gao Shun and Guan Ping took the initiative to jump into the encirclement, and everything was ripe.

As the Art of War says: A good warrior must first be invincible, waiting for the enemy to be defeated. The invincibility lies in oneself, and the victory lies in the enemy.

There is no sure-fire way to win a war. The only way is "as long as I don't make any mistakes, and then I know when the enemy makes some mistakes and when the time and place are right, then I can win."

Whether it is Zhuge Jin or Guan Yu, all they can do is to avoid making mistakes themselves, and then delay the situation until Cao Ren and Yu Jin make the mistake, and until the weather and climate are right, and then they can close the net.

Therefore it is said: Victory can be known, but cannot be achieved.

The finishing touch is not achieved by cheating, talking nonsense, or forcing coincidence. If you think victory can be achieved by forcing something, that is called "win can be forced", which will only make you a laughing stock.

People only need to "know" and wait for heaven to "act" or for the enemy to "act".

Even if the continuous heavy rain and flooding did not come, at most Zhuge Jin's flooding strategy would fail, but there would be no other obvious losses. Guan Yu was still confident that Gao Shun could continue to hold on, or withdraw the troops and regroup and redeploy.

The weather only affects how much you earn, and will not cause Zhuge Jin to lose money. Even if you really earn less, you can just find another opportunity next time.

……

August 3rd, afternoon.

The intermittent autumn rain since late July this year finally stopped in August and continued to rain for four days without stopping.

The water level of the Han River finally rose to a new height.

In Shandu County and Zhuyang County, which are a few dozen miles upstream from Xiangyang City, Huang Zhong's troops had already reached the limit of using cofferdams and depressions to store water. If they did not dig dams to release water, the cofferdams themselves would be washed away by nature.

Zhuge Jin knew all these data in advance.

Liu Bei's army's command system always played a very timely role in mutual communication.

The homing pigeons that had been trained in advance were also put to good use. When the rain was so heavy that even birds could not fly, express horse messengers relayed the messages.

Therefore, Zhuge Jin knew exactly when and on what day to launch all this, and he could also notify all friendly forces in advance and make full preparations for support.

The operation of this battle was far more difficult and complicated than the original historical incident when Guan Yu "flooded seven armies".

After all, in history, Guan Yu's flooding was just a casual move. He only needed to prepare the warships and navy in advance and be on standby at all times. If the flood did not come, he would have other ways to slowly besiege and break the city. In this way, Guan Yu had much less to consider than now.

However, although there are too many factors that need to be coordinated and controlled, with a trader like Zhuge Jin, everything in the battle seems to be easy and still controllable.

Before the battle, Zhuge Jin had someone confirm with Huang Zhong in advance, notified Gao Shun, and finally told Guan Yu who was about to attack:
"General Huang's side, the water is already unstoppable. General Huang himself has already led his troops to retreat in advance, preparing to cross the enemy's defense zone in Xianshan to support our army in the decisive battle.

Of course, we cannot rely on General Huang’s group at the beginning. They will only be able to arrive in the subsequent stage of expanding the results of the battle.

So, we still have to rely on you, Yunchang, is that ok? The whole army will rush to the battlefield in the second half of tonight. Prepare the big ship in advance, take the Hanshui waterway, go around to the north end of Yuliangzhou, and then remember to take advantage of the flood to rush into the shallow waterway between Yuliangzhou and Xiangyang City from north to south.

By then, the water level in this shallow channel will be enough for warships and battleships to pass through. After entering, the battleships should not stay for too long, but should kill their way through the enemy camp and return to the main channel of the Han River from the south end. Because the water level of the flood peak will recede quickly, the time that the battleship can stay in that shallow channel is estimated to be no more than two hours, or even only one hour. If it stays for too long, it will easily run aground.

As for the warships, they can stay for a while, maybe half a day, but don't be too careless, water and fire are merciless, and I can't calculate accurately. Moreover, once the flood floods, the original inherent channel will be difficult to find. If the ship sails to the place where there was land, as long as the water recedes a little, it will run aground directly. "

Zhuge Jin spoke earnestly and explained to Guan Yu every detail he could think of.

In order to ensure that everything went as foolproof as possible, Zhuge Jin also asked all of Guan Yu's generals who were about to go into battle to participate in the pre-war mobilization meeting.

Including Chen Dao and Tian Yu, they all listened to Zhuge Jin's suggestions more or less directly and fully implemented the ideas of the upper level.

"Don't worry, Ziyu. I have been waiting for this battle for seven or eight days! My subordinates are also preparing for battle and are full of fighting spirit every day. We will stand out as soon as we get the upper hand!"

Guan Yu was full of confidence and high spirits. While bowing to accept the instruction, he could not help stroking his beard repeatedly. Sometimes, he could not help but clench his hand while stroking his beard harder, but fortunately he did not pull the beard off.

"Don't worry, Situ! I will strictly carry out military orders. I will remember every word you said in my heart and will never make those superficial mistakes!" Chen Dao and Tian Yu also responded in a deep voice with a firm look on their faces.

"Very good, now that things have come to this, the follow-up is up to you. I have done everything I can, and the fight in the battle depends on your efforts!"

Zhuge Jin looked around at everyone and nodded with satisfaction. Then he personally braved the heavy rain to send Guan Yu to the Lumenshan Pier and watched Guan Yu board the boat to attack.

At this moment, Zhuge Jin fully deserves the reputation of "planning in the tent and winning the battle thousands miles away".

The pre-war preparation stage is his time to show his ability, but after the battle begins, it's up to everyone else. Everyone has their own clear division of labor.

The fleet set sail in the afternoon before dark, because they were still thirty miles away from the battlefield, and if they wanted to go around the northern tip of the peninsula and then rush back downstream, they would have to go another twenty or thirty miles.

Nowadays, the Han River is turbulent during the rainy season, and the speed of sailing upstream is slow, so it is absolutely necessary to set sail half a day in advance.

This ensures that we reach the southern section of Yuliangzhou Island after dark, and then go around to the northern end of the peninsula in the second half of the night.

As long as it was dark, Guan Yu's fleet would not be easily discovered by Cao Ren's scouts if it approached Yuliangzhou.

Even if Cao Ren discovered it an hour or two earlier, it would be difficult to confirm the size of Guan Yu's fleet in the dark. As long as Guan Yu pretended to "still send troops to Yuliangzhou Water Fort Wharf, unload goods and land to reinforce Gao Shun", Cao Ren would not be suspicious.

The most Cao Ren would do is continue to make preparations, and have the catapult positions on the commanding heights of Yuliangzhou Highlands stocked with more stone bullets, so that they could smash Guan Yu's ships hard when they saw them approaching the dock area.

That's it.

……

"Zi Yu's divine calculations can actually change fate. If the weather does not allow the use of water attacks, he will drag it out until the weather turns around and use it for our army. With such a magical power, how can our army not win? God bless the Han Dynasty, and all the soldiers in this battle will be united and fight ten with one!"

After several hours of sailing, as the sky became completely dark, Guan Yu and his fleet successfully arrived at the southern tip of the Yuliangzhou Peninsula as planned.

In order to prevent running aground and missing the waterway, Guan Yu also ordered some of the exploratory warships to light torches and use bronze mirrors as reflectors to illuminate part of the waterway.

This reflective cup made of a concave bronze mirror was of course also an invention of the Zhuge brothers.

When used at night, the detection distance of this light source will become very short for enemies that are not in the direction of illumination. It can illuminate the way while not being easily discovered by enemies from the side.

However, the application scenarios of this thing are not very wide, and Cao's army does not have much demand for naval construction. It has rarely fought high-quality naval battles with Liu Bei's army before, so Cao's army has no idea about this thing, let alone seize and imitate it.

With the help of these little gadgets, Guan Yu successfully turned and detoured, bypassing the peninsula and heading towards the northern end of the waterway. Everything seemed so smooth.

When the flood peaks, it is impossible for the fleet to go upstream, because the power of rowing and sailing is not enough to withstand the impact of the flood peak. Therefore, if you want to take advantage of the flood peak to defeat the enemy, you must first go around the upstream of the waterway, and then rush down safely and effortlessly.

Zhuge Jin had arranged all of this so meticulously during the pre-war planning stage. The entire army became more confident and their morale was high because of the smooth preparation of the plan.

This kind of tortuous march to smear the people was basically flawless, which shows how good Situ's plan was.

In this case, the subsequent fighting will surely go smoothly and be easily resolved!

After another hour or two of sailing, Guan Yu finally managed to lead the main fleet to the northern entrance of the Yuliangzhou waterway.

In fact, he arrived a little early.

The main reason was that Zhuge Jin was unable to accurately calculate the time of the flood peak and the speed of the water after releasing water from upstream.

In other words, he didn't know how long it would take the water to flush through this section after the dam on Huang Zhong's side broke.

From Shandu County to Xiangyang, it is only more than 40 miles, and to Yuliangzhou, it is at most 60 miles.

Zhuge Jin could only anticipate the enemy's leniency and strike early rather than late.

Guan Yu waited anxiously at the northern entrance of the Yuliangzhou waterway for a full quarter of an hour, or even half an hour.

Fortunately, he knew how to stabilize the morale of the troops. Since they were free, he asked the soldiers to quietly move a little upstream. At most, they could rush back downstream after the flood peak came. Anyway, they just had to observe the waterway well.

Finally, after waiting for more than half an hour, the sound of waves finally came from upstream, and the Han River, which was already surging, ushered in another wave of flood peaks.

The water that Huang Zhong had stored upstream was finally released.

"All troops, prepare! Form your formation and turn! Charge into the Yuliangzhou waterway! Destroy all Cao's troops camped along the river!"

Guan Yu gave stern orders. It was impossible to see the flags at night, and the roars in the heavy rain could not be heard far away, so each ship sounded the fire signal.

They used lights covered by rainproof reflective lampshades to flash each other to pass messages - the general meaning of each light was also agreed upon before the battle. This was also a trick that Zhuge Jin helped to think of, which was equivalent to a simple battlefield code signal.

The ships of Guan Yu's army immediately began to turn according to the plan, following the flood peak, and filed into the preset channel, heading straight for Yu Jin.

……

In the second half of the night, halfway through the fourth watch.

In the Cao army camp on the bank of the Yuliangzhou waterway, Yu Jin was sleeping soundly.

The number of night patrol scouts arranged in the camp was sufficient, so Yu Jin would not be delayed, and the enemy would not be able to launch a surprise attack and rob the camp.

Yu Jin was an old hand who had followed Cao Cao for almost twenty years. He was strict in military discipline and very experienced in the basic methods of employing troops. He almost never made low-level mistakes.

If you have solid basic skills in normal times, you will be able to sleep soundly when a big battle comes.

Only by maintaining good energy can you perform better in the subsequent protracted war. If you exhaust yourself every day, how can you be considered a general?

However, tonight, everything has changed.

Yu Jin was sleeping soundly when he was suddenly woken up by a night patrol officer: "General, this is bad! We should order the camp to move! The river has suddenly risen sharply and the lowlands on the shore have been flooded! More than a hundred tents at the lowest point are all soaked in water!"

Yu Jin woke up rubbing his eyes. When he heard the word "flood", he came to his senses very quickly and forced himself to cheer up.

"The water level is rising? So fast? Wasn't it at least three or four feet higher when we slept last night? Never mind, let the soldiers retreat to higher ground immediately. If there is no time to move heavy objects, leave them where they are and wait for the water to recede! This autumn rain is really messing up everything!"

Until this moment, Yu Jin had not completely panicked. He felt that the autumn rain was just a natural phenomenon, and there was nothing he could do if God did not let him feel comfortable.

The Cao army soldiers woke up quickly and began to dress themselves sleepily. They each looked for their weapons and armor and were ready to move while carrying their equipment.

However, the peak of the flood came faster than anyone expected, and just a few minutes later, the water level rose another foot or two.

Those soldiers carrying armor had no time to leave the shallow water.

When the water level reaches the thigh, the impact of the flood peak is enough to knock people down and it is difficult to stand up again.

The soldiers carrying the armor had to discard it, support themselves with both hands, and then barely stand up, and then try to move with difficulty.

As for those elite soldiers who wore iron armor directly, once they were knocked down, there was at least an 80% chance that they would not be able to stand up, and they would drown silently.

At this moment, Yu Jin finally realized that something was wrong.

"How could the flood peak be so fast and so big? This is definitely not caused by the weather and geography! Hurry up and put away your weapons and armor, and run to higher ground! Those who can go up to the towers and trebuchets, all go up to the nearest earthen platforms! Quickly!"

Yu Jin shouted and gave orders in the heavy rain and flood, but unfortunately the sound of rain and waves made it difficult for too many soldiers to hear his orders.

Yu Jin himself was almost knocked down by the water, but fortunately his personal guards were very loyal and brave, holding on to his arms and pulling him to run.

The rest of Cao's soldiers could only fight on their own based on their survival instinct.

Many people have discovered the problem. Those who can throw away their armor do so quickly. Those who can hide in high places nearby do so quickly. Those who can hide in nearby places do so as well.

For a time, the generals did not know their soldiers, and the soldiers did not know their generals, and the command system was completely lost.

Before long, no more Cao's troops could stay in the low-lying areas. Everyone either fled to higher ground or to the earthen platforms and sentry towers in the camp. Those who stayed in the low-lying areas were either drowned or washed away by the current.

Yu Jin watched all this with a grim face, and in his heart he was still rapidly thinking about how to reduce the losses.

However, less than half an incense stick of time had passed, and from the upstream direction of the Yuliangzhou waterway came the sound of horns, followed gradually by the sounds of fighting and shouting.

Yu Jin looked towards the north in astonishment: "Enemy attack? Could it be Guan Yu? But why would he appear in the north? Isn't Guan Yu to our south?! Could it be another time..."

Yu Jin didn't dare to think any further. His face turned pale in an instant. It seemed as if all his energy had been drained out of him. He even couldn't stand steadily.

It was already five o'clock in the morning.

In early August, until the autumnal equinox, the days are still long and the nights are short, so the sky is already slightly bright.

Yu Jin couldn't help but squint his eyes, and then he saw in despair that the shape of the incoming ship seemed to be indeed used by Guan Yu's army.

"Destroy the Cao thief! Kill Yu Jin! Those who surrender will not be killed!"

"Cao Ni, stop resisting in vain! You have fallen into General Guan's trap! Now you have no choice but to surrender, or you will die!"

"The Han Dynasty will rise, and Cao will perish! Brothers, kill him!"

The warships of Guan Yu's army were getting closer and closer, and their shouts were getting louder and louder. The soldiers under Yu Jin's command all felt a sense of despair in their hearts.

On the several catapult platforms upstream, the Cao army soldiers who were forced to be surrounded had begun to surrender without a fight.

(End of this chapter)