My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 443: Is the wealth of the world fixed?

After Zhuge Jin finished his polite speech, the envoys from the Wuhuan and Xianbei tribes became obedient and each of them expressed their gratitude for the kindness.

But everyone knows that these are all empty talk. To control the barbarians, you have to use both kindness and force. The big talk just now is the force part, and the kindness depends on the subsequent practical trade plan and how to distribute the benefits.

After laying the groundwork, Zhuge Jin wanted to announce his plan, but he also took into account his noble status. If he revealed it too easily, his plan would seem worthless.

So he was very patient and just waited for the Wuhuan, Southern Xiongnu and Xianbei barbarians to ask questions themselves, and then he would answer them in a pretentious manner.

Anyway, those Wuhuan people will definitely lose their patience.

Sure enough, after three rounds of drinking, the envoy of the Wuhuan Louban tribe came forward to toast and then wanted to ask a few questions.

Zhuge Jin came today to preside over the banquet to appease the barbarians. He wore iron-ringed chain mail, and all the Hu people who entered the palace were required to hand over their weapons.

However, for the sake of decency, the envoys themselves were not strictly searched, and their guards were only allowed to stay in the outer courtyard to eat and drink.

In this situation, the guards who maintained order would naturally not let the envoy talk too close to Zhuge Jin. Basically, they would just let him toast from a distance of about ten steps away.

What's more, Zhao Yun was sitting in the first seat beside Zhuge Jin. At this distance, the tiny flying knives and needles could not hurt Zhuge Jin who was wearing chain mail. If he wanted to rush forward, with Zhao Yun's martial arts, it would be easy to intercept him. The messenger who dared to move was simply seeking death.

The envoy bowed and said, "I am Wusu, the envoy of the Louban tribe, and I pay my respects to the princes. Although I am a small envoy living in a remote border area, I have heard of the reputation of the princes' talents and wisdom, which has spread throughout the world. Everyone in the tribe knows it.

But before, Envoy Mi asked us Wuhuan tribes to sell as many cattle and sheep as possible to the Han people to solve the food shortage in Youzhou. At the same time, he said that the princes have a magic method to ensure that even if we Wuhuan tribes sell as many cattle and sheep as possible, we can still take care of the food we need to survive the winter and not starve. I really don’t understand, do the princes have magic to make rice and meat out of thin air? "

After Wu Su asked the question, the envoys from other tribes also pricked up their ears, wanting to know how Zhuge Jin would answer this sharp question.

Zhuge Jin was not vague and directly denied it calmly: "Immortal magic does not exist. If I can conjure food out of thin air, I can just give it to the Han people in Youzhou. Why do I need to collect food and fodder, and why do I need to trade with you Wuhuan people?

But it is possible to coordinate resources, maximize the value of cattle, mutton, rice, meat, salt and tea, and ensure that both the Hu and Han peoples have enough food and clothing."

Zhuge Jin spoke frankly and directly, which made many envoys feel a little relieved.

Although the principles Zhuge Jin talked about were still empty, one could tell from the confidence in his tone and expression that he was truly confident, or at least not guilty.

Considering the reputation of the Zhuge family, those Hu people believed it a little more.

However, Wusu, who took the initiative to ask the question, was obviously a relatively knowledgeable person among the Wuhuan people. He probably also read some Han history books, which is why he was selected by Louban as the representative of the trade delegation.

Wu Su then asked: "The words of the princes can be said to be a discussion of the truth, with the bearing of the three dukes. But we, the narrow-minded and mean people, also know that your Han sages once said, 'The wealth of the world has only a fixed amount, if it is not in the hands of the officials, it is in the hands of the people.'

Trade is just a transfer of wealth, it does not come out of thin air. If so, originally there was not enough food and meat for all the Han and Hu people, how could there be enough food after trade was coordinated?"

When the envoys from other Hu tribes heard Wu Su's question, they were completely convinced and felt that they could not ask more thorough and to-the-point questions than him.

I have definitely not read as many ancient Chinese books as others. Even if I know some principles, they are just superficial common sense and cannot reach the theoretical level of Chinese literati.

In this case, let the envoy of Louban serve as our spokesperson. He will ask questions on behalf of everyone, and we will just listen quietly to how the princes defend themselves.

Zhuge Jin couldn't help but sneer when he heard this.

Since ancient times, the cultural level of the Hu people was not high. Even if they had some understanding of the advanced management and coordination of the Han people, they could only understand to the extent of what Confucianism said: "There is only a fixed amount of wealth in the world. If it is not in the hands of officials, it is in the hands of the people. Therefore, the so-called widening of financial resources is to compete with the people for profit."

From the debate between Sang Hongyang and the opposition during the reign of Emperor Wu of Han, to the debate on virtuous and talented literature during the reign of Emperor Xuan of Han that led to the "Salt and Iron Discussions", to the later dispute between Wang Anshi and Sima Guang.

This is the most fundamental weapon used by Confucian conservatives to attack management science, coordinated innovation, and economic reform.

The Confucian scholar-officials did not believe that productivity could be liberated and developed. They believed that there was only so much wealth in the world and that all reforms were about dividing the cake rather than making it bigger.

Of course, those representatives of the Legalists who competed with the Confucian economic conservatives and virtuous literature were not very competitive.
From Sang Hongyang to the Salt and Iron Conference, even to the two-tax system reform carried out by Prime Minister Yang Yan of the Tang Dynasty, and even to Zhang Juzheng of the Ming Dynasty, none of them could directly refute the erroneous view that "the wealth of the world has a fixed amount."

They also cannot understand the future world of capitalism, where science and technology advance, economic aggregate continues to grow, and productivity continues to develop. So, in the final analysis, Sang Hongyang and others are indeed trying to divide the cake in different ways, but they are not making the cake.

Among the ancient Chinese reformists, the one who was the most capable in this regard should be Wang Anshi. At least in this regard, Wang Anshi was more capable than Zhang Juzheng, as he tried to prove from the root that "productive forces can be liberated and developed."

It’s a pity that his attempt at argumentation was still not rigorous enough, and he had problems in employing people, all of whom were despicable villains like Lu Huiqing. In the end, both sides fell into a dispute of emotional opposition for the sake of opposition.

However, the fundamental problems that the Confucian scholars of the Han Dynasty could not answer throughout the ages were nothing to Zhuge Jin.

For someone with common sense of modern economics, it is much easier than for the ancients to prove that "management and coordination can liberate and develop productivity and increase the overall scale of productivity."

It’s because the ancient rulers were so bad at math.

Zhuge Jin didn't even need to talk about big principles. He could just use the angle that the Hu people were most familiar with and most convinced of, and settle the accounts with just the details.

He asked in a cheerful and talkative manner: "Since you are an envoy of the Louban tribe and you are familiar with border market business, you must know how to do some accounting? Do you also know something about cattle and sheep husbandry? I won't preach big principles today, but I will use cattle and sheep husbandry as an example. You can understand, right?"

The Hu envoys were all stunned. They were used to seeing Han scholars and officials preaching moral principles, but this was the first time they heard of a high-ranking Han official settling accounts with them and talking about raising cattle and sheep.

The Hu people are more familiar with this matter than the Han people, and it is their old business for survival. At this moment, everyone naturally responded, saying that if the princes could give a convincing reason on this issue, they would naturally agree and cooperate in the future.

Now that the atmosphere was set, Zhuge Jin started to settle accounts with Wu Su in a very down-to-earth manner: "Well, let me ask you, on your grassland, how much meat can you get from a cow that is raised to adulthood and sold?"

Wu Su didn't even think about it and blurted out, "An adult bull has about 600 to 700 kilograms of meat, which is a lot. There may be a difference of more than 100 kilograms between male and female."

Of course he was talking about Han jin, which is equivalent to more than 300 kilograms of meat according to the measurement method of later generations.

In ancient times, cattle were mostly used for farming, not for meat, so the proportion of muscle to body weight was far less than that of later beef cattle. Zhuge Jin asked again: "What about an adult fat sheep? How many sheep would it take to equal the meat of a strong bull?"

Wu Su replied, "Sheep are fatter than cows. Seven or eight live sheep are equal to the weight of a live cow. But sheep have more meat. Five or six sheep are equal to the meat of a cow."

Zhuge Jin: "If we compare the 'conversion efficiency' of eating grass, how much grass do five or six sheep eat in a day? How much grass does a cow eat in a day? Just for meat, is it more cost-effective to raise sheep or cattle?"

Wu Su thought about this question for a while and said, "If you just want to eat meat, raising sheep is much more cost-effective than raising cattle. The hay a cow eats is at least equivalent to that of four or five sheep, but cattle grow slowly. Sheep can eat in half a year, and even if they are fat, it will take less than a year, but cattle need several years."

The other Hu envoys below also thought about it for a while before making their decision.

The main reason was that the animal husbandry of the Hu people during the Han Dynasty was still too extensive. Basically, except for the winter when they had to feed the cattle and sheep some hay, they let the cattle and sheep graze on the grassland on their own at other times.

The Wuhuan people had very rough statistics on the food intake of cattle and sheep, and most herders did not have the mathematical knowledge to calculate and plan. They also roughly estimated how much hay was needed to survive the winter based on experience. If they cut too little hay, it was common for cattle and sheep to freeze to death or starve to death.

In the final analysis, it is because the math foundation of the entire nation is too poor. Even if it is a matter of life and death, knowing that there will be heavy losses if something is calculated wrong, but still can't figure it out.

This also shows that when it comes to math, anger is completely useless. Not to mention being unable to solve math problems when you are extremely angry, even if the consequence of not being able to solve the problem is starvation, you still can't solve it.

These envoys were relatively literate among the Hu people, and their math level was much higher than that of ordinary herdsmen, so they could barely keep up with the questions.

Zhuge Jin did not give them a chance to breathe, and continued to ask questions intensively: "If that's the case, in order to satisfy the needs of the people, why don't you raise more sheep? Why do you raise so many cattle?"

This time, Wusu seemed to have heard a funny question: "Raising cattle is not for eating meat, but for making cheese with milk. We Wuhuan people don't have many opportunities to eat meat, so how can we afford it? It is a good year if we have enough livestock and milk to feed the people.

What's more, cattle can be sold to Han people as oxen for farming, and their price is far more than that of meat. The hard cowhide can be made into armor, the soft sheepskin can only be made into coats, and the cow tendons can also be tanned into crossbow strings, which are even more expensive.

Of course, these are not the key points. The key point is that cattle can endure hunger better. When the grass is insufficient and it is necessary to move, cattle can survive for a few more days without starving to death. Sheep are delicate, and when the wind and snow suddenly come, they starve to death in large numbers. We have seen countless times the tragic scene.

Therefore, the tribesmen must raise some cattle for the winter, just in case, even if they never intend to trade with the Han people - this is common sense. "

"Of course I know this is common sense." Zhuge Jin directly retorted in a serious tone, asking those barbarians to restrain themselves.
“So, in the final analysis, although you seem to be living by following the water and grass, you have done your best to allow the grassland to feed more people and prevent your tribesmen from starving to death.

But in fact, your livestock structure does not fully utilize the productivity of the grassland.

Of course, I am not asking you to overgraze. I have also taken into account the problems that sheep like to nibble on grass roots and raising too many sheep will damage the grassland. I have thought of everything you can think of -

Even so, I can still say that your Hu tribe's plan for raising cattle and sheep is a complete mess!
How much grass is there on the grassland because you need to "hedge" and prevent livestock from starving or freezing to death during the winter, and in order to have a backup plan, so you choose inefficient grazing?
How many livestock have long passed the age when they grow meat the fastest? If they are kept any longer, they will not grow many pounds of meat and will just eat more grass in vain. But in order to maintain the size of your livestock property, you are unwilling to slaughter them in time, thus wasting their meat?

If you are willing to fully cooperate with our Han court and fully trade with our border markets,
How much grass can be saved if a large number of livestock that have been raised for too long and have slowed down their growth are slaughtered and sold in advance? How many new cattle and sheep can be raised? How much more meat can be produced? Have you ever calculated this?"

Wu Su was speechless after being asked this question. He had to admit that Zhuge Jin had hit on a crucial point.

That was the animal husbandry of the grassland peoples during the Han Dynasty, where overbreeding was a very serious problem.

Anyone with a little common sense knows that if you raise a sheep for more than a year, it will grow slower and slower and will only get older. If you want to eat meat, you should kill it after a year at most to avoid wasting grass.

However, in order to accumulate wealth, the Hu people on the grasslands would raise and hoard sheep until they no longer grew meat, as long as their own families could not eat so much meat. This was a very common phenomenon.

Moreover, in their view, grass is not a scarce resource. When the grass and water are abundant, they do not think about controlling or calculating the growth rate and consumption rate.

The result of such extensive breeding is either overgrazing or waste of feed.

Zhuge Jin sorted it out with mathematical rigor, and Wusu immediately discovered that their production methods were full of inefficiencies.

But Wusu still had some common sense. He quickly thought of something and argued, "What the princes said is indeed thought-provoking. But even if we Wuhuan people know that cattle and sheep will grow old instead of growing meat if we continue to raise them, we will not slaughter them casually.

At least livestock won't rot when they're alive. If you kill too many at once and can't eat them all, won't you just watch the meat rot in vain?
We also cannot sell all our meat for money. If we lose our money in times of emergency, when we are cold and have no clothes, and when we are hungry and have no food, aren’t we putting our lives in the hands of others?

Over the past few hundred years, our trade with the Han people was limited to exchanging salt, iron and other necessities. Once we had enough, we would no longer sell more cattle and sheep. We would rather have cattle and sheep at home eating grass for free than hoarding a pile of copper coins.

The Han people's border market may not always be available. Once the ruler of Yuyang Prefecture is replaced, and someone is tough on us Wuhuan, the market will be closed, and the copper coins we have left will become worthless."

After Wu Su finished speaking, the envoys from other tribes also agreed with him.

Their ancestors have been enduring the pressure of "old sheep and cows that no longer grow meat living a few more years" because sheep and cows can be kept fresh when they are alive, but will become sour and rot when they die?
To put it bluntly, a large part of the grass that is wasted is just to buy the "shelf life" of the meat.

If Darwin were to do the math, he would use the "food chain energy transfer efficiency theory" in his high school biology textbook to do the math.

Half of the grass on the grassland is wasted in the pursuit of the "shelf life of beef and mutton."

Therefore, there is a lot of room for coordinated management, cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

Seeing that everyone was finally being led in the right direction, Zhuge Jin leisurely revealed the first selling point he had conceived:
"You're worried that beef and mutton are difficult to store, and you can't be sure you can spend the money you earn from selling them - isn't that easy? You can use live beef and mutton to exchange for the pickled meat from our Yuyang Border Market.

If you think there's too much salted meat and don't need so much meat with too much salt, we have other things that are suitable for stockpiling.

Even in the future, when the mutual trust between the two sides deepens and you no longer worry about us closing the border markets, you can exchange live cattle and sheep for 'beef and mutton futures'.

Of course I can come up with a plan that allows you to replace the cattle and sheep that are no longer growing meat and are just eating grass for nothing, with cattle and sheep that are of similar age and have similar meat content in a year or a few years.

You bring the old ones, and I'll replace them with younger ones in a few years, and I won't charge you any extra money. How can this business not work?"

(End of this chapter)