My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 347 Xiahou Yuan: The force of the Xuzhou battle is versus . The advantage is mine.
Zhuge Jin was ordered by Liu Bei to guard Yangzhou, the rear base. Without having time to ask Liu Bei for instructions, or while writing a letter to ask for instructions, he hurried to Xuzhou to meet Guan Yu.

If another lord did this kind of thing, it would definitely be a taboo.

But Zhuge Jin really sensed a new military threat, and was afraid that Guan Yu might not understand it for a while, so he didn't care about anything else.

Moreover, Liu Bei was different from ordinary lords. There were few people who could compare with him in history in terms of trust in his subordinates, so this little thing didn't matter.

At this moment, Zhuge Jin felt a little relieved when he heard Guan Yu's prediction that Xiahou Yuan might invade the East China Sea and open up a new battlefield. However, he still felt that there were some details that should be checked and supplemented and reminded.

He had been on the journey for more than ten days, and every day when he was free he was thinking about the battle in Xuzhou. He must have had some insights that Guan Yu could not imagine.

Zhuge Jin then reminded him, "It's good that Yunchang has never let his guard down, but Xiahou Yuan's fighting power in this southward march may exceed your expectations. The number of troops we can mobilize is also less than what we planned at the beginning. You must be mentally prepared for all this.

According to previous intelligence, Cao Cao's troops deployed in Xuzhou, excluding those necessary to defend the territory, can be used for attacking, with about 70,000 to 80,000 soldiers. I saw in the battle reports of the past two months that the cumulative number of enemies killed and wounded should be between 10,000 and 15,000. So even if Xiahou Yuan currently has 60,000 soldiers left, and his morale is low due to a series of small setbacks.

Our army originally deployed 50,000 troops in Xuzhou. In the Battle of Langya, the total loss of various units was more than 4,000. If the remaining troops can be used to resist Xiahou Yuan, and there is also the advantage of defense, then we are naturally not afraid.

But Yunchang, have you ever thought about this? Previously, we focused on defending Langya, so 15,000 soldiers were trapped in the Yimeng Mountain area of Langya. Moreover, the mountain area is rugged and difficult to travel, and the news is not transmitted. Once Xiahou Yuan changes his strategy, we will not be able to notify Zhongda and Zijing to come south to reinforce in time.

Most of these troops are good at mountain warfare. If they are forced to march back to the plains rashly, they will easily be divided and surrounded by the enemy and defeated one by one. If they encounter an unexpected event, it will instead dampen the morale of the entire army.

Therefore, Yunchang, you must be mentally prepared to rely solely on the military forces of Xia Pi and Donghai counties to resist this offensive. Even the thousands of navy on Gongjin's side should not be pulled to the shore to use your own weakness to attack the enemy's strength.

It is not easy to train naval forces. Our naval forces today still need to learn how to maneuver ships and sail at sea, and carefully select soldiers who can withstand the turbulence of wind and waves. It would be a waste to just use them for land battles and field battles or to fill in the defense line. "

Zhuge Jin was organized and first helped Guan Yu roughly calculate the strength of the enemy and our own side, as well as the ratio of our forces.

In the first phase of the war, Cao's army suffered far more casualties than Liu Bei's army, with the exchange ratio being three times higher. Liu Bei's army suffered more than 4,000 casualties, and half of them were caused by Zhou Yu's attack on Li Dian and Sun Guan.

After all, Zhou Yu's line was a coastal landing and active offensive mode. In the process of charging and tearing through the enemy's defense line at the beginning, casualties were inevitable. It was all thanks to the absolute superior force to tear open the gap, break the enemy's mentality and morale, and then cover and kill to expand the results.

In comparison, in the two battlefields where Gao Shun and Lu Su defended the city, casualties were controlled below one thousand in each place. That was truly a case of waiting for the opportunity to tire out and sitting firmly on Mount Tai.

Unfortunately, although the kill ratio in the first phase of the battle was good, Liu Bei's army was at a disadvantage in terms of manpower deployment. Even if the Langya garrison won, it would be inconvenient to transfer it to the East China Sea battlefield. With this analysis, Guan Yu's manpower disadvantage was relatively large.

Guan Yu obviously had some awareness of this, but he had not calculated it as clearly and carefully as Zhuge Jin had done before. On the other hand, Guan Yu's fearless mentality made him too lazy to worry about it. Anyway, no matter how many soldiers he had, he had to fight this battle.

Just like the famous saying of Aegeus II: When the Spartans heard of the enemy, they never asked how many there were, but where they were.

At this moment, after calming down and thinking for a while, Guan Yu touched his beard guard and asked thoughtfully:

“Although Langya’s troops are isolated in the north, and the road out of Yimeng Mountain and into the plains is easily blocked by Cao’s army, it shouldn’t be impossible to mobilize them, right?

I thought that at most I would not be able to catch up with the first battle after Cao's army moved south, but as long as I could hold out in the first battle, Zhongda and Zijing would definitely be able to help me in the subsequent encirclement and pursuit and expansion of the victory."

Zhuge Jin kindly reminded: "The difficulty lies in whether we can hold out in the first battle. As long as we can hold out, why should we be so constrained in sending Zhongda and his men hundreds of miles to the front battlefield?

By then, Zhongda and his men can take advantage of the situation to turn defense into offense, attack the Langya counties in Yixi from Ju County and other counties, or even encircle Lanling and other counties in Donghai County west of Yishui - in fact, this is exactly what I want to emphasize.

In this battle, Cao Cao dared to promote Zang Ba, Sun Guan, and Chang Xi in advance, and let the main force of Cao's army invade under the banner of Langya bandits and Taishan bandits. This was actually a double-edged sword. Cao's army could thus become more flexible, making the scale and duration of the battle controllable, but it was also equivalent to putting some counties at stake.

On our side, the Huaibei part of Xuzhou is the stakes of this battle. On Cao Cao's side, Langya County and even Taishan County are the stakes of this battle.

If the two armies finally fight to the point of exhaustion and stalemate, they will each take back their own bets, stop fighting temporarily to rest, and then find another direction to break through in the winter or even in the early spring of the following year.

If our army is weak, Cao Cao will swallow up all of the parts of Xuzhou and Huaibei controlled by our army, and then stop there for the time being, turn around and deal with Yuan Shang, and then march south to expand the results of the battle.

And if Cao's army is weak, we can also take the opportunity to occupy Langya and the western half of Donghai. Therefore, if you, Yunchang, are confident and have this ambition.

It would be better to use the remaining 12,000 to 13,000 troops of Zhongda and Zijing as the general reserve for the counterattack at the beginning.

In this way, we can avoid the risk of Zhongda and Zijing being intercepted and defeated by the enemy on their way to reinforce. It can also enable our army to switch from defense to offense more freely and unexpectedly in the future, and it can also save them the trouble of running back and forth before the attack, so that they can enter the counterattack with the most energy and strength.

Of course, the premise of all this is that you can use the troops in Xiapi and Donghai counties to fight a defensive battle first. If these troops are not enough for defense, there is no way to counterattack, and all these preparations are in vain. "

Guan Yu was inspired and fascinated by Zhuge Jin's grand plan and vision.

To be honest, before Zhuge Jin came, Guan Yu had never thought so far. His initial pursuit was just to defend to the death.

After all, defense is difficult. Who can think at the beginning "how to deploy defense to not only ensure defense, but also facilitate counterattack after defense"?

At this moment, Guan Yu's desire to win was aroused. He could not help but pick at the silk bag a few more times and slammed the table and said:

"That's right! If the enemy goes, I can go too! Cao Cao is a traitor who likes to learn our strategies and plans. We must make him suffer a little to stop him from showing off his skills in front of an expert! It's decided that we will only use the troops we have to resist Xiahou Yuan. However, if we exclude the troops from Langya, the casualties and those from Gongjin, we will only have 27,000 to 28,000 people at most. If we also leave a few thousand people for Yuanlong as a reserve for the Huaihe River defense line, the number of troops that can be deployed to the decisive battle in Huaibei should be less than 25,000.

Twenty-five thousand men against Xiahou Yuan's sixty thousand is not an easy fight. According to the original plan, Wenyuan and Gongtai will use the Donghai troops to defend Tancheng to exhaust the enemy, and I will bring the Xiapi troops to reinforce later. It should not be enough to repel Xiahou Yuan.

There are no strategic locations to defend within Donghai County. Although Tancheng is the county seat, Xiahou Yuan does not have to attack Tancheng. He can rely on us for food and make a detour.

Time is not in our favor, as all the autumn crops have not yet been harvested and stored. Donghai County is located in the north of the Huai River, unlike Guangling in the south of the Huai River, where rice and wheat are rotated and summer wheat is harvested. Several counties in the north of Donghai do not grow rice, but only grow wheat once a year, and the autumn harvest only begins at the end of August. The grain that is not stored in the warehouse is easy to be looted by Cao's army. "

As Guan Yu spoke, his mood grew heavy. He asked someone to bring him maps of the counties in Xuzhou so that he could discuss them with Zhuge Jin.

This map not only shows counties and rivers, but also other simple terrain markings, which at least allow you to tell where the mountains are and where the plains are.

Guan Yu pointed to the five eastern counties of Donghai County under his control and counted them one by one. He quickly pointed out that the two counties of Zhuqi and Licheng on the northeastern coast of Donghai County must be abandoned if Xiahou Yuan attacked, as there was no strategic location to defend there.

Although there are some small hills and forests around these two county towns, they are not in a large area and are not connected. Xiahou Yuan's army can encircle them in depth, and as long as the depth is more than 50 miles, they can cut off the two coastal hills.

The remaining three places, Tancheng, the county seat, Houqiu, and Quxian (Lianyungang), the most important seaport city in the county, can be defended. Guan Yu's previous defense focus was Tancheng, and he also deployed Zhang Liao there.

After all, Tancheng was the county seat, the most important politically, and the only county town that blocked the throat of the Yishui River. If Tancheng was defended, Xiahou Yuan would not be able to go downstream along the Yishui River and threaten Xia Pi, which was located at the intersection of the Yi and Si rivers.

As for Qu County, although it is also important, it is the hometown of Mi Zhu and Mi Fang, and the home port of the Mi family's maritime merchants. The business is very prosperous and there are abundant money, grain and materials, but such a seaport is difficult to defend during wartime.

Guan Yu had already ordered the governor of Donghai, Mi Zhu, to transfer supplies and money by sea, and take away everything that could be taken away temporarily. It would not be a pity if the city was occupied, as at most some buildings and port shipyards would be burned down.

After hearing Guan Yu's original deployment, Zhuge Jin's heart moved and he suddenly thought of something.

He scratched his back with the ribs of his folding fan, then tapped the ribs and said, "It may not be effective to let Wenyuan defend Tancheng and tire the enemy. Now is the autumn harvest season, Xiahou Yuan can eat wherever he goes, and it doesn't matter if he temporarily gives up opening up the Yishui waterway.

If our army wants to defeat the enemy with fewer troops, we must first use a strong city as bait to tire out the enemy for a long time. When the enemy is tired and discouraged, we can then reinforce them with our main force and attack them from both inside and outside. Therefore, the bait of Tancheng is not big enough to make Xiahou Yuan resolutely and persistently attack.

In comparison, it is more reliable to induce his actions with money, food and supplies - although you have ordered Zi Zhong to transfer the money, food and supplies from Qu County, the enemy certainly does not know this.

Why don't we pretend to defend Tancheng and Yishui waterway to the death, and then create some illusion of "discord between civil and military forces", such as the Mi family thinks they have made great contributions and are reluctant to give up their family business in Qu County and are unwilling to move. They are unwilling to let the workshops, shipyards, and ports that cannot be moved be burned down by the enemy, and they ask Wenyuan or Gongtai to send troops to defend Qu County.

You can also make a convincing argument, pretending to offer advice in the name of Zi Zhong, saying, "Our army previously relied on Gongjin's ships and navy along the coast of Langya to defeat Li Dian and Sun Guan's troops in Jiaoshan and Rizhao. Now as long as Gongjin's ships and navy are still there, Qu County will definitely be able to hold on. Even if it is surrounded on three sides by land, there are Gongjin's ships and fleets to transport military supplies and personnel. There is no need to abandon it at the beginning. You can try to guard it for a while. It's not too late to leave if you are really defeated."

If Xiahou Yuan attacked Tancheng too quickly and accidentally intercepted a letter from the Quxian garrison asking for help from the Tancheng garrison, or if he heard about the merits of the Mi family and became arrogant because his sister gave birth to the lord's eldest son... the chances of this deception being successful would be even greater."

When Guan Yu heard this, he couldn't help but his eyes lit up.

He really needed a city to play the role of a "magnet" to attract Cao's army and tire them out when they first entered the country.

We cannot allow Cao’s army to spread out like mercury, and start to infiltrate and divide us, wantonly destroying the construction achievements in various places within Donghai County.

Originally, Guan Yu thought that Tancheng, the county seat that controlled the Yishui waterway, could at least delay the attack for a while.

But now it seems that the temporary bait that Zhuge Jin thought of for him seems to be more useful.

Moreover, Mi Zhen had indeed just given birth to a son for Liu Bei at the end of last year. It is easy to believe that at this critical juncture, the Mi family would be arrogant and think that they should "recover the investment benefits of the year with interest after all the hardships".

Guan Yu himself did not know the history, so he had relatively little room to imagine this situation.

Zhuge Jin's imagination of this matter is even more likely to be overestimated. After all, in the original history, Guan Yu's failure had a lot to do with the backstabbing of the Mi family.

Zhuge Jin only regretted that Mi Fang was now the prefect of Wujun, while Mi Zhu was the prefect of Donghai.

If he had known the current situation a year or two earlier, he would have made Mi Fang the governor of Donghai and played the role of a greedy man who was reluctant to give up his vested interests. His acting would have been more realistic.

Unfortunately, I can't change it, so I can only use Mi Zhu.

Mi Zhu himself might be loyal, but his family was wealthy and powerful, so it was entirely possible that Mi Zhu was sent away on business, and then the relatives of the Mi family were too arrogant to sacrifice the family interests, so they insisted that Guan Yu divide his troops to defend the family. This was very reasonable.

The Han Dynasty's "bad deeds by foreign relatives" were not the first or second time, and this narrative structure was the easiest for the enemy to understand.

This strategy can definitely fool Xiahou Yuan, but there is also Guo Jia on the opposite side, so how effective it can be depends entirely on fate.

In order to better implement the subsequent strategies, Zhuge Jin first needs to ensure that his existence is kept secret. He was very low-key when he came to Xia Pi this time. The enemy did not know that Zhuge Jin had come to the front line. This can be regarded as Guo Jia in the open and Zhuge in the dark. Perhaps this can cause the enemy to relax their vigilance.

(End of this chapter)