My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 302 Yuan Shao did nothing wrong, he was just too old
The sixth year of Jian'an, the first day of April, Yecheng.

In the general's mansion, Yuan Shao sat silently behind the desk, listening to his subordinates' reports with a stern face.

Ever since the disastrous defeat more than three months ago, Yuan Shao has become a little neurotic.

When talking to his subordinates, he always feels, consciously or unconsciously, that they are sneering at him and making fun of him behind his back.

This illusion also made Yuan Shao, who had always been very concerned about his reputation, even more irritable. He would severely punish his subordinates if he caught them doing any minor wrongdoing.

At this moment, Tian Feng and Shen Pei were on his left, Guo Tu and Feng Ji were on his right, also listening quietly to the intelligence sent from the front, thinking in their minds how to respond to the questions that their lord might ask at any time. Except for Tian Feng, no one else dared to even breathe.

There were also several other advisers from the Hebei and Yuzhou factions, who also formed their own groups and were divided into two groups, with clear distinctions between them. As long as Yuan Shao didn't ask them, they would keep silent.

Soon, the messenger who was responsible for reporting the military intelligence on the front line had said everything he needed to say. After hearing this, Yuan Shao remained silent for a few seconds, then looked around at his advisers, hoping that they would speak up and offer advice.

But after looking around, no one dared to look him in the eye. They all bowed their heads in respect, so Yuan Shao had to call on them to ask questions.

"Gong Ze! You speak first! In the Battle of Guandu, you saw through Zhang He and Gao Lan's ulterior motives. How can you not have insight now? Cao Cao has gathered a large number of troops in Xudu, trying to recapture Wancheng, which fell to Liu Biao last year. Is this a good opportunity for our army to take revenge?"

Guo Tu was a little embarrassed when his name was called. He didn't know what Yuan Shao was thinking. He wanted to say what Yuan Shao wanted, but he didn't know how to start.

Although Guo Tu was also trusted, he rarely offered advice as the "most trusted and first-in-line" counselor. Ju Shou, Tian Feng or Xu You always spoke first. Therefore, Guo Tu could always figure out Yuan Shao's intentions from the conversations between Yuan Shao and other counselors who spoke first, and then make targeted decisions.

Now that he had no chance to test the waters, Guo Tu had no choice but to bite the bullet and think rapidly:
"My lord's question just now was 'This is a good opportunity for our army to take revenge', which shows that my lord must want revenge. But he is not sure whether this is Cao Cao's trick, and he is afraid that Cao Cao will be real when he is false and fake when he is real. If I suggest my lord to send troops, I will be severely punished if I misjudge Cao Cao's true strength in the future..."

Thinking of this, Guo Tu had no choice but to clear his throat and say something repetitive:
"My lord, you are eager to seek revenge, and I understand that, but Cao Cao is good at changing his tactics and is full of tricks...

In my opinion, we still have to take a long-term view, continue to strengthen our scouts, find out the real deployment of Cao's army, and then make progress."

Guo Tu did not say whether the war should be fought or not, he only said that Yuan Shao should strengthen the investigation work.

In this way, no matter what the final decision is, it cannot be blamed on Guo Tu.

Even if the decision is wrong, it is not the fault of the strategist, but the fault of the person in charge of intelligence work.

Speaking more cautiously than a lawyer who charges by the hour is called getting a clean bill of health.

Yuan Shao could not hear any fault in this. He just felt that Guo Tu supported him in raising an army for revenge in principle, so he let him go. Then he turned to Shen Pei on his left and continued to ask for his opinion.

Shen Pei cursed Guo Tu in his heart for being cunning, saying the easiest thing to say first, which made it even harder for the people who came after him to come up with something outstanding. But he himself was too shameless to say the same thing first.

Shen Pei hesitated again and again and failed to make any constructive judgment. Seeing that Yuan Shao looked unhappy, Tian Feng, who was next to Shen Pei, took the initiative to speak up and helped Shen Pei, who was also from Hebei, out of the predicament.

"Good opportunities are hard to come by, my lord. Why are you hesitating? Liu Biao is incompetent and the Jingzhou army is weak. This is known to the world. Cao Cao has sent troops south to recapture Wancheng. Perhaps he can defeat the Jingzhou army in a month. If we continue to scout and procrastinate, the opportunity will be gone.

Moreover, I have heard that when Cao Cao conquered Zhang Xiu four years ago, when he was retreating, Zhang Xiu used his strong army to pursue the retreating army, but Jia Xu said that he would definitely lose. After the defeat, he used his defeated army to pursue the victorious army, and Jia Xu said that he would definitely win, and in the end everything turned out as he said. It can be seen that Cao Cao has always been cautious and frivolous in using troops.

Our army was defeated at Guandu in the winter. Cao Cao will certainly not be on guard against us, just like Zhang Xiu, who was defeated once. If we counterattack now, it will be like Jia Xu's second pursuit of Zhang Xiu. We will definitely catch Cao Cao off guard! If you don't take what God has given you, you will be blamed. Please make the decision when necessary!"

When Shen Pei heard this, he was shocked and thought to himself that it was Tian Feng who dared to say it and made such a firm statement.

But this is really Tian Feng's style - Tian Feng has been advising Yuan Shao all his life "to seize the opportunity when Cao Cao is fighting with other princes to steal Cao Cao."

In the original history, Liu Bei killed Che Zhou and briefly stole back Xuzhou. Cao Cao hurriedly marched east to Xuzhou to recapture it. Tian Feng advised Yuan Shao to seize this opportunity to steal back. Later, Yuan Shao hesitated, Liu Bei was destroyed by Cao Cao, and Cao's army returned to defend. Tian Feng tried his best to stop Yuan Shao from going to war, but was imprisoned for this.

It can be said that Tian Feng has formed a path dependence on the principle of taking advantage of the opportunity to steal the enemy's base. He would steal whenever he saw an opportunity. Before the Battle of Guandu, Yuan Shao did not listen to him, and he had always been upset. This time, he finally had another chance.

As for Tian Feng's misjudgment, it really cannot be blamed on Tian Feng's IQ - because Xun You's deception of Tian Feng to attack Jibei this time was the same as Zhuge Jin's deception of Zhou Yu to attack Guangling last year.

No matter how high Tian Feng's IQ is, can it be as high as Zhou Yu's? Zhou Yu was deceived by Zhuge Jin without sufficient information. Tian Feng also had the problem of information asymmetry when he met Xun You, and Jia Xu, who secretly helped Xun You to improve the plan, so it was not unfair for him to misjudge.

In fact, many strategists have such path dependence. If you are a representative of the hawk faction, you will be a hawk all your life. If you are a representative of the dove faction, you will be a dove all your life.

Tian Feng is like Brzezinski, who has been shouting "USSR will definitely fall" all his life. If USSR didn't fall, Brzezinski would be a fool. If it did, he would become a top international affairs expert. Guo Jia's advocacy of "Yuan Shao will definitely fall" on Cao Cao's side is similar. They are all gambling on their own political future, just betting on the probability of a certain type of event. If it succeeds, your academic status will rise to a higher level. Even if it doesn't, at least you can flatter the leaders.

Moreover, Tian Feng's theory of reality and falsehood is correct in principle. In today's situation, Yuan Shao has just lost a battle, and Cao Cao must feel that he is powerless to counterattack. This is very similar to Zhang Xiu's pursuit of Cao Cao and losing the first battle!

It’s a pity that Tian Feng didn’t expect that he was using Jia Xu’s theory of reality and falsehood to deal with Jia Xu himself, which was really a bit of "returning the favor in his own way".

Yuan Shao was also eager to take revenge, but when he saw Tian Feng's strong support this time, he suddenly felt that this subordinate who always contradicted him was not so annoying after all.

It seems that Tian Feng still has some sense sometimes.

"Since Yuan Hao has said so, our army should indeed reorganize its forces immediately and take action from the east as soon as possible. While Cao Man's main force is on the west, we should quickly make a breakthrough." Yuan Shao finally breathed a sigh of relief and made the decision with gritted teeth.

Tian Feng never worried about his personal safety, and he didn't think about how to protect himself after giving his advice. It was Shen Pei who was standing by that worried him and quickly stepped in to stop the leak:
"My lord, Yuan Hao's argument is good, but it is based on the premise of 'quick battle and quick decision', which means the response must be fast. If the frontline generals are slow to execute this order, and eventually delay the main force of Cao's army to return, this battle will have to be reconsidered, and then perhaps we should quit while we are ahead..."

Shen Pei did not say whether Tian Feng's judgment was accurate or whether he had seen through Cao Cao's strengths and weaknesses. He only said, "Cao Cao's weaknesses definitely exist. If they were not caught, it was because the execution level was too slow."

It is best to state this in advance so that even if Yuan Shao fails in the end, he will not have to kill Tian Feng and hold him accountable.

Yuan Shao's mood was recovering, so he didn't notice Shen Pei's little trick. He just urged Jiang Qi, Han Meng, Jiao Chu, and Zhang Nan to speed up the advance, and asked Tian Feng to come up with an attack target and a specific plan.

There was no disagreement within Yuan Shao's camp about this specific battle plan. Yuan Shao had been stationing a large number of troops at Cangtingjin, and now he had to hurry up, so of course he could only cross the Yellow River from Cangtingjin to the south and attack Dong'e and Fanxian first.

Yuan's army prepared very quickly. From the meeting to make decisions, to reconnaissance to confirm the enemy's situation, to gathering troops and food to officially set off, it took less than ten days.

On April 9, Yuan Shao's army launched an operation to cross the Yellow River from Cangtingjin to the south. Yuan Shao himself left Yecheng on April 3 and personally traveled east for four days to Cangting. After a short rest, he began the battle to cross the river.

(Note: Yecheng is between Ci County and Linzhang County in Handan City, Hebei Province, and Cangtingjin is in Shen County, Liaocheng City, Shandong Province. The straight-line distance between the two is 120 kilometers. The entire route is on the Hebei plain road, which is easy to travel. It is normal for Yuan Shao to arrive in four days.)
……

After Yuan Shao successfully crossed the river, he did not notice anything unusual at first.

In particular, Cao's army did not send troops to attack Yuan's army halfway across the river. Yuan Shao was not disturbed during the entire process of crossing the river. He safely moved his large troops to the south bank and established a stable bridgehead for storing grain on the south bank.

Seeing this scene, Yuan Shao's heart, which had been suppressed for four months, finally relaxed a little.

"Aman really didn't guard against me! Yuanhao is really shrewd and cunning. Everything is just as he said, 'After Aman wins, he will no longer be on guard. He will just return to the south and defeat Liu Biao first.' If I had listened to Yuanhao earlier last year, there would be no defeat at Guandu! Alas!"

Yuan Shao regretted this in his heart, but of course he would never say it out loud. He would never admit his mistakes. Even though he knew in his heart that Tian Feng was right, he could not deny his past self.

But no matter what, at least at this moment, Yuan Shao's trust in Tian Feng returned to its peak.

Unfortunately, this peak lasted only a short time.

After successfully crossing the river, Yuan's army immediately launched an all-out attack on Dong'a and Fan counties, especially Dong'a, which was farther away from the main force of Cao's army.

Although Dong'e seemed empty, the defenders were very determined. Yuan Shao used his powerful army to intimidate the garrison of the small county and had no intention of surrendering. Yuan Shao was forced to attack the city step by step in order to gain an important foothold on the south bank of the Yellow River.

He didn't know that at this moment, the commander defending Dong'a City was none other than Cheng Yu, who had just been transferred from the post of governor of Jiyin County to governor of Jibei County. Cheng Yu's ability in defense was also well-known in Cao's camp.

Seven years ago, when Cao Cao attacked Tao Qian, he was attacked by Lu Bu and only three counties along the Yellow River, Dong'a, Fanxian and Juancheng, were left. Among them, Dong'a was guarded by Cheng Yu.

Not only did Cheng Yu hold off Lu Bu in Dong'a for nearly half a year, but he was even able to supply the military rations needs of Cao Cao's army during the battle with Lu Bu with just the county of Dong'a, even when Cao Cao had lost all of his other bases.

You have to know that Dong'a County originally had little food storage. How could Cao Cao's army of tens of thousands expect a mere county to supply food for half a year? So Cheng Yu obviously had a special way to create special military rations. This tenacity is amazing to the world.

Now Yuan Shao thought that Cao's army was weak, so he crossed the river from Cangting and headed for Dong'a. As a result, he kicked Cheng Yu who had returned to his old place.

Cheng Yu was able to hold off Lu Bu with so few resources back then. Now he has upgraded his weapons to better weapons, and it is so easy to attract Yuan Shao and hold off until the main force of Cao's army completes the outflanking.

(End of this chapter)