My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 246 I can’t help Brother Yuan, I can only help my nephew Yuan

Although Sun Ce was hot-blooded, he was assisted by his calm and insightful buddy Zhou Yu, and he successfully avoided Cao Cao's first wave of strategic deception and did not rush forward directly.

To be fair, Cao Cao's attempt to deceive Hua Xin and drag Sun Ce into the war to help him fight Liu Bei by any means necessary was indeed a desperate move.

No matter how realistically Cao Cao acted, it would be difficult for Cao Cao to succeed as long as Zhou Yu was determined to help Sun Ce put the brakes on, not to release the eagle until he saw the rabbit, and not to take action until he saw Cao's army take action first.

But Cao Cao had no choice as his situation was urgent.

Yuan Shao attacked immediately, and Cao Cao just tried to take advantage of the information gap that could be lost at any time and get rid of it before it expired.

If he doesn't fight now, once the news of Yuan Shao's invasion to the south reaches Sun Ce's ears, he will have no hope.

A strategy that may expire at any time should not be used in vain, even if there is a 70% to 80% chance that it will be ineffective after use, you still have to use it.

But Cao Cao was lucky, because Zhuge Jin also wanted to seduce Sun Ce to fire the first shot, so as to be branded as "colluding with traitors and resisting the Yidaizhao".

In terms of seducing Sun Ce to tie him to Cao Cao's chariot, Cao Cao and Liu Bei's camps surprisingly showed a rare tacit understanding.

From a standpoint, Liu Bei's camp should have been on the same side as Yuan Shao. But Zhuge Jin knew very well that if Yuan Shao killed Cao Cao right now, the world would belong to Yuan Shao, and Liu Bei would have to be Yuan Shao's younger brother for the rest of his life.

In history, Cao Cao won the Battle of Guandu, but it still took him seven years to destroy the Yuan family, which shows the huge gap in strength between Yuan and Cao. If the result of the Battle of Guandu was reversed, Cao Cao would probably not be able to hold on for a year.

Even if Liu Bei and Yuan Shao joined forces to carve up Cao Cao, how much could they get in the process? At most, they could take back the entire territory of Xuzhou, and then take over Runan and other places in Yuzhou, and completely control Huainan.

As for the Henan Plain in the north of the Huai River, which was not easy to defend, Liu Bei would not go to carve up a piece of it. That place was not easy to defend and would only be occupied by the most powerful family. By then, the area north of the Huai River would belong to Yuan Shao, and there would still be four or five princes in the south. Liu Bei would still be pushed forward by Liu Biao and Sun Ce, and would be in a place where he would be surrounded by enemies. What autonomy would he have?
Therefore, the outcome of the Battle of Guandu that Zhuge Jin envisioned for Liu Bei was very clear: Yuan Shao could not win, but the Yuan family could not be annexed by Cao Cao.

The most perfect situation is that Yuan Shao can lose, or even die. But Yuan Shang can live, allowing him to delay Cao Cao for two more years. And Yuan Tan must not die. In this life, Zhuge Jin will persuade Liu Bei to make good use of Yuan Tan and let Yuan Tan hold on!
Moreover, Zhuge Liang's trip to Hebei two years ago was actually quite fruitful. Although he failed to help Yuan Tan succeed in becoming the crown prince, it at least greatly improved Yuan Tan's status and deepened his father Yuan Shao's trust in him.

Before leaving, Zhuge Liang helped Yuan Tan to make contributions in the final battle to defeat Gongsun Zan, and also suppressed Yuan Shao's second son Yuan Xi, who was originally dispensable to him. In the end, Yuan Xi was not exiled to Youzhou, and a considerable number of military forces in Youzhou were inclined to Yuan Tan.

Also because of the butterfly effect of Yuan Xi's suppression, Yuan Shao later slightly changed the historical situation of three sons and one nephew each ruling a state. He did not release his nephew Gao Gan to take charge of Bingzhou after defeating Zhang Yan.

According to the current development trend, if Yuan Shao dies in the future, the Yuan family will probably change from being divided into four parts to being divided into two parts - Yuan Xi and Gao Gan will be eliminated from the beginning and have no right to play. Yuan Shang will occupy Ji and Bing, and Yuan Tan will occupy Qing and You, dividing Yuan Shao's territory into two parts, east and west. The Western Yuan is Yuan Shang, and the Eastern Yuan is Yuan Tan.

Liu Bei will definitely do his best to protect the territory of Eastern Yuan in the future! As for the territory of Western Yuan, he must also ensure that Yuan Tan does not actively help Cao Cao fight his brother, and make the decline of Western Yuan slower than the same period in history.

Liu Bei's army now has a naval advantage and can dispatch troops and supplies by water at a relatively low cost. Qingzhou is directly based on the Shandong Peninsula, which can be a very good support for the princes who control sea transportation.

Although Youzhou is a little further north, it also has many ports around Bohai Sea, so Liu Bei can support it in the future. However, the westernmost part of Youzhou, which is the part around "Yun" in the "Sixteen Prefectures of Youyun" in later generations, Shanggu and Dai County, may be difficult to defend because they are too deep inland and located at the angle between Bing and Ji.

But it doesn't matter. At worst, Yuan Tan can give up the inland areas such as Dai County and Shanggu, and exchange them for Bohai County in Jizhou, and rely on Nanpi to hold on. This will ensure that "Cao Cao will not have an inch of coastline in his life. As long as it is close to the sea, Liu Bei can provide support and blood transfusion, so that Yuan Tan can be held back forever."

Based on such medium- and long-term planning, Liu Bei's camp has now coincidentally reached a factual consensus with Cao Cao on the issue of "seducing Sun Ce".

There was no collusion between the two parties, but judging from the results, there was a tacit understanding.

……

So in the next few days, Zhou Yu carefully arranged Sun Ce's army's naval forces and patrol boats to cross the river to the north to further confirm the situation.

However, with Zhuge Jin and Chen Deng deliberately showing weakness and plotting, Zhou Yu certainly could not verify the truth. In addition, Zhou Yu could not figure out "Cao Cao and Liu Bei actually coincided on this issue" no matter how hard he tried. In the end, Sun Ce's naval scouts brought back the following information:

Chen Deng was indeed still seriously ill, and Hua Tuo stayed in Guangling City to treat Chen Deng.

The defenders of Guangling also showed signs of moving to Huaibei, and rumors spread throughout Guangling that Cao's army from the north had already entered the country.

Chen Gong was indeed still alive and was employed by Zhuge Jin.

After confirming all three points, Sun Ce felt that the situation was very good. After repeated consideration, he finally made up his mind:
"Let's fight! Get all the troops ready. We may send out troops in three to five days! Gongjin, based on the current situation of Guangling being empty, let's adjust our battle plan in the next few days and see how to arrange the specific tactics to be the safest!"

After Zhou Yu received the order, he immediately said that he would improve the plan as soon as possible. His plan was not something he came up with after hearing Sun Ce's order. In the past six months, Sun Ce's army had no battles to fight and had been holding back. Those senior wise generals and veterans had been thinking about how to deal with Liu Bei in the future.

It can be said that Liu Bei had long been Sun Ce's number one imaginary enemy, and he had done enough homework. Therefore, he was able to fight within ten days after saying he wanted to.

This time, it is just a matter of fine-tuning based on the latest situation, which will not take much time, and it is not a rash move by Sun Ce.

Just two days later, Zhou Yu came up with a newest "improved version of the action plan" and presented it to Sun Ce for discussion overnight.

"Bofu, our army originally formulated two plans to attack Liu in the past year. One plan was to go west along the river and capture Wuhu and Jingxian first; the other plan was to cross the river and go north to capture Guangling first. Now, because Guangling is empty and Chen Deng is seriously ill, I took the second plan that was originally a backup and made some adjustments.

I think the biggest flaw in our original plan is that when we encounter Zhuge Jin or Chen Deng defending a strong city, we lack the ability to quickly attack and defeat the enemy, and we are easily dragged down until the main force of Liu Bei's army returns to support us. The total strength and population of Liu Bei's camp are twice that of our army, so entering a war of attrition will inevitably be disadvantageous to our army.

Therefore, this time I planned to take advantage of Guangling's emptiness and directly land along Guangling County and Hailing County, clear out Liu Bei's navy along the river in Guangling County, and go straight to the key point at the mouth of the Han Canal. Use fire ships to attack and burn Liu Bei's docks and water forts at the north and south estuaries of the Han Canal, and burn the Han Canal sluice gate that Zhuge Liang built for Liu Bei.

The current Han Canal has been raised after Zhuge Liang built the sluice gates, and the water level can basically rise to the same height as the original Guangling tide. If our army attacks when the Guangling tide is low, setting fire to the sluice gates and letting the canal water rush into the Yangtze River, the water level of the river will inevitably drop sharply.

The new large ships that Liu Bei's army had originally stranded in the canal were either washed away or stranded. Even if the canal was temporarily abandoned after such a sneak attack, it would be much slower for Liu Bei to transfer troops and supplies from Xia Pi and Donghai County to the anti-Cao front to support Guangling.

Even if the first wave of surprise attacks failed to burn down the canal gates, as long as the momentum was built up, Liu Bei's army would be forced to leave the city to fight us in the field in order to protect the canal gates! Even Zhuge Jin and Guan Yu's troops in Wuhu had to give up their original strategy of defending Wuhu City and consuming our resources, and had to go down the Yangtze River to Guangling for rescue.

In this way, we may be able to kill Guan Yu and Zhuge Jin on the Yangtze River! We have done a thorough investigation over the past year. Guangling’s garrison is no more than 10,000 people. Now that Cao’s army has invaded Xiapi, Guangling may have less than 5,000 people left.

Liu Bei's army in Wuhu has no more than 10,000 people. If we first destroy the ports, water forts and ships along the Guangling coast, the Guangling defenders will lose their ability to fight on the water and will not be able to reinforce Zhuge Jin and Guan Yu on the Yangtze River.

At that time, all the main forces of our navy will concentrate their forces to besiege the point and attack the reinforcements, and annihilate the main forces of Zhuge Jin and Guan Yu, who are about 10,000 people. Then the seven counties of Danyang, Guangling, and even Yuzhang may fall into the hands of our army! "

The core idea of Zhou Yu's plan is to surround the weak Guangling and create a situation that the enemy must rescue, otherwise they will suffer huge losses. Force the Wuhu army to come out from behind the tortoise shell defense line to fight a water battle! Then concentrate the superior forces of the Sun family to annihilate them!
As long as the effective forces of Zhuge Jin and Guan Yu were destroyed, Chen Deng, who was already too sick to get out of bed, would not have to worry about it. By then, the city of Guangling County would be easily conquered, and it was such a big city that it could not escape.

"What a great plan! Gongjin is worthy of being my think tank!" After Sun Ce digested Zhou Yu's planning strategy, he couldn't help but applaud.

However, he still knew his limits, and he found two senior veterans left by his father, Cheng Pu and Huang Gai, as well as two powerful prefects Zhu Zhi and Xu Kun, and aligned the plan with them to see if they had any omissions to fill.

The four of them thought about it again and again and didn't think there was any problem. Since they couldn't come up with a better plan than Zhou Yu's, the matter was approved.

Sun Ce finally made the decision: "Then make all preparations and cross the river to attack Guangling in five days! In addition, set up a false army at Niuzhu. On the eve of attacking Guangling, pretend to attack Wuhu from Niuzhu to attract the attention of Guan Yu and Zhuge Jin, making them suspicious and hesitant so that they won't rescue Guangling immediately!"

(End of this chapter)