My younger brother Zhuge Liang

Chapter 220 When someone is trying to grab food, of course you should eat what’s in the pot first, then what’s in your own bowl
After all, the secret letter was too explosive and against the will of heaven. So until the moment it actually happened, Zhuge Jin would not pretend to be a charlatan and make a firm prediction, including not telling it to his own brother Zhuge Liang.

It is precisely because of this that even a master of calculation like Zhuge Liang, when asked by Liu Bei at this moment about his analysis of the situation in Xu Du, could only rely on hard computing power and some peripheral deductions he had done with his elder brother in the previous two months to roughly draw a vague outline.

Zhuge Liang gently waved his feather fan, very slowly, and thought for a full cup of tea before speaking in a serious tone:
"Yuan Shao gained a profit in the first battle, but he only occupied two-thirds of Henei County. Because he killed Yang Chou and had no excuse to continue fighting the enemy, he had to stop temporarily. This shows that Yuan Shao was hesitant and cherished his reputation - Yuan Shao should not have cherished his reputation to this extent. This is actually beyond our usual understanding of Yuan Shao.

Perhaps it was Yuan Shu's death that caused Yuan Shao to overcorrect. He watched his own brother being beheaded in just two years because he ignored the court and disregarded the righteous cause.

But little do we know that history will never simply repeat itself. Throughout the dynasties, both ancient and modern, which one did not strictly guard against the lessons of the previous dynasty? But in the end, which one really declined because of following the old path of the previous dynasty?

Yuan Shao's truce for the sake of reputation had already lost the first chance to win. Now we cannot say that he will lose, but it definitely gave Cao Cao a chance to catch his breath and win over the princes!
In the next few months, the decisive battle between Yuan and Cao may not be restarted soon, but as Cao Cao gathers enough allies, Yuan Shao will definitely realize that time is not on his side on the diplomatic front, and he will be forced to find a new excuse to fight again, and Yuan Shao will definitely find it.

In the final analysis, Yuan Shao was weighing two options: one was to continue fighting now, which would be less justifiable but would make the enemy weaker. The other was to find a better excuse in the future to restart the war, which would be more justifiable but would make the enemy stronger. Yuan Shao chose the latter.

Liu Bei listened very carefully, and as he listened he could not help but feel relieved.

The fragmentary information about Xudu's recent situation that Sun Shao had just reported was like a fog and a tangled mess in Liu Bei's mind. He could not find a grasping handle to understand it in a concise way.

After being forcibly sorted out by Zhuge Liang, Liu Bei finally grasped the general principle: Cao Cao was using his status to exchange for diplomatic advantages, while Yuan Shao was using diplomatic advantages to exchange for status. The medium for these two exchanges was time.

However, even after understanding this general principle, Liu Bei still felt that it was somewhat unreasonable, because he did not see any inevitable "transactional relationship" in the trade-offs between the two aspects.

In other words, can you do this kind of transaction whenever you want?

Liu Bei didn't want to appear to be slow to react, so he tried to think for a while. In the end, he couldn't figure it out, so he asked back:
"Sir, there is a little bit of confusion about what you said: Why did you say that Yuan Shao could gain a better reputation in the future by delaying the opportunity to fight and watching Cao Cao win over more allies?

If I were Cao Cao, I would use this time to win over allies while not giving Yuan Shao a new excuse to start a war. A few months later, when my plan is complete, Yuan Shao has no new excuse, so I will make a profit, and Yuan Shao will lose money.

Zhuge Liang was slightly stunned, obviously not expecting Liu Bei to still be struggling with such a basic thing, so he immediately responded.

This feeling is like when a teacher omits some well-known proofs of a problem in class, and simply says "it's obvious". But the poor students sitting below are dumbfounded, and don't understand what is "obvious/well-known" about it.

Zhuge Liang said fluently: "As long as Yuan Shao wants to change, of course he can. Because Cao Cao is going to win over more people, he will definitely make random conditions, which will lead to injustice among the people and will not last long. There will inevitably be resentment inside Xudu, and many old officials in the court will oppose it.

Back then, Lü Bu was able to raise troops to purge the emperor's court because of Man Chong's imprisonment of Yang Biao, the Grand Commandant, and was successful for a time. Yuan Shao was able to use Qu Yi as a chess piece to test the waters and occupy Hanoi under the pretext of attacking Yang Chou.

With these two precedents, whenever Cao Cao takes action against the respected senior officials in the court, the powerful foreign princes in the world will follow suit. In fact, Cao Cao will never have peace.

As long as Cao Cao's purge of respected people appears again, Yuan Shao will immediately use this as an excuse to replay the routine of the Battle of Hanoi. And by then, if Cao Cao's diplomatic mediation has not been completed, he may try to delay it a little. If Cao Cao's mediation has been completed, he will definitely not tolerate Yuan Shao's blunt knife cutting his flesh, and then it will be the moment of a full-scale decisive battle! "

After hearing this detailed explanation, Liu Bei's mind finally became clearer and he was no longer as confused as before.

But he soon discovered that in what Zhuge Liang said, there was a "prerequisite of the prerequisite of the condition for solving the problem", which he still did not fully understand.

But this time he gave up thinking on his own. Liu Bei had already gained self-knowledge and knew that thinking further with his IQ would probably be a waste of time, so he decided to just ask directly.

"Sir, there is another prerequisite, which is 'Cao Cao is bound to cause injustice among the people in order to win over more people, which will not last long'. How do you explain this in detail? Forgive my stupidity, I don't see any inevitable cause and effect here..."

Zhuge Liang did not elaborate and answered directly: "My answer was too brief. Please think about it: I just heard from Changxu (Sun Shao) that Cao Cao offered Zhang Xiu the conditions of making him a general of Yangwu, a county marquis, a fief of 2,000 households, and marrying his children to each other, and letting Cao Cao's youngest son Cao Jun marry Zhang Xiu's daughter.

Who was Zhang Xiu? Was he worthy of such a high position and a great reward? There were some famous ministers and generals who had joined the court in Xudu two or three years earlier than him. They were more talented, famous, and had more private soldiers than Zhang Xiu, but none of them received such a high reward as Zhang Xiu.

To put it bluntly, giving Zhang Xiu such a reward was a stopgap measure to save the situation. In the long run, it would undermine Cao Cao's principle of appointing people based on merit and treating everyone equally. It would only make people resentful: Sikong employs people like piling up firewood, and the latecomers are the ones who get the upper hand!
Cao Cao wants to win over not only Zhang Xiu, but also Duan Wei, Ma Teng, Han Sui... If Cao Cao suspects that we and Liu Biao are a threat, he will even support Sun Ce and others behind us. When the time comes, the official positions and titles that Cao Cao will give away will be enough to make the old officials of Xudu angry and jealous.

This expedient measure, relying on Cao Cao's pressure, may be able to hold out for a year or two or a few months. If it lasts too long, someone in Xudu will definitely oppose Cao Cao, and as long as Cao Cao suppresses the internal opponents, Yuan Shao will jump out.

Regardless of whether the oppressed person is a righteous minister of the Han Dynasty, Yuan Shao can confidently say that the person is a righteous minister of the Han Dynasty, and that Cao Cao's suppression of the other party is to harm loyal and good people and to stop them from speaking out, and then he sends troops!

To put it bluntly, Cao Cao was using his prestige and credibility to quench his thirst with poison in exchange for a short-term expansion of Yuan's power. In the long run, it would be a hidden danger of internal strife. He must fight a decisive battle with Yuan Shao before the backlash broke out. If Yuan Shao tried to cut his flesh with a blunt knife again, Cao Cao would not give in and would fight to the death. "

When Liu Bei heard this, he finally understood everything.

So that's the truth!

There is still a lack of so many details to prove my own understanding and Zhuge Liang's initial "problem-solving process".

Zhuge Liang felt that things that were "well-known" had to be broken down and explained in such detail that others could understand them.

The more Liu Bei thought about it, the more reliable he seemed, and he couldn't help but sigh from the bottom of his heart: "Sir, you can predict the enemy's situation from thousands of miles away as if you were there with your own eyes. This is truly a blessing for the Han Dynasty, and the Han Dynasty has nothing to worry about! How come I remember that even a year or two ago, you were not as good as your brother in these long-term strategies, but your progress is really rapid..." It would be inappropriate to say these words to outsiders, but Zhuge Jin and Zhuge Liang were brothers, so there was no question of jealousy, so Liu Bei told the truth.

He had witnessed the changes in Zhuge Jin over the past three years, and had also seen Zhuge Liang's growth over the past two years.

To be honest, Liu Bei now thinks back that when Zhuge Liang first came, he was only remarkable in terms of skills, craftsmanship, water control and construction, and was on par with his elder brother. In terms of encouraging agriculture and managing finances, he was slightly inferior to his elder brother. As for strategy, military management, and the use of troops, he was far behind his elder brother at that time.

But just one year later, Zhuge Liang had completely caught up with his elder brother in terms of water conservancy, agricultural promotion and financial management, and later even showed a trend of surpassing him.

In terms of military command, Zhuge Liang grew rapidly because of the year he spent with Guan Yu in the second year of Jian'an. Now he has surpassed his elder brother and even has his own unique insights in the military command and communication systems, reaching unprecedented heights in some details.

Zhuge Liang's only weakness was in strategic vision, diplomatic wooing, political alienation, and the specific use of troops. When he first debuted, he only had some theoretical knowledge and was far inferior to his elder brother.

But after nearly three years of experience, Liu Bei has now confirmed that Zhuge Liang has caught up with his elder brother in terms of strategic vision and diplomatic differentiation and winning over.

Now, Zhuge Liang is still not as good as his elder brother in the two aspects of managing his subordinates, employing and identifying people, and personally commanding the troops. But according to the growth rate in the above aspects, Liu Bei estimates that Zhuge Liang will catch up in a few years.

And this young man will not officially turn 20 in more than a month! Outsiders think this age is equivalent to just having the coming-of-age ceremony in more than a month!

Mrs. Song and Tzuyu's vision was indeed correct! Kong Ming's subsequent growth potential is indeed higher than Tzuyu's who got ahead by six years!

……

While Liu Bei was reminiscing and sighing, Zhuge Liang was not idle. Seeing that his lord did not ask any more questions, he continued to deduce along with his previous train of thought and immersed himself back in his own world.

After a while, Zhuge Liang suddenly had an idea. He patted his folding fan and took the initiative to analyze it to Liu Bei: "Liang also went north to Jizhou two years ago and saw the style of many of Yuan Shao's advisers.

I think Guo Tu is greedy for merit and Tian Feng likes to take advantage of opportunities. These two people will not persuade Yuan Shao to be cautious in exchange for the greater good. Therefore, when Yuan Shao temporarily stopped the war, Guo Tu and Tian Feng must be opponents. They must be urging Yuan Shao to fight quickly!

In contrast, Ju Su once advised Yuan Shao to welcome the emperor. When I was in Hebei two years ago, I also saw Ju Su persuade Yuan Shao to support General Yang and Vice Admiral Kong in the name of supporting Lu Bu and putting pressure on Cao Cao. So the one who advised Yuan Shao to be cautious in exchange for righteousness this time must be Ju Su!
I cannot predict the specific opinions of the other three, Xu You, Shen Pei, and Feng Ji. But if only Ju Su supports delaying the war, Yuan Shao will not listen to his indecisiveness. So among the three, at least one or even several of them must support Ju Su’s opinion.”

Liu Bei did not ask this question. It was an additional question offered by Zhuge Liang on his own initiative and was not counted in the score on the paper.

Liu Bei was still sighing with emotion, but when he heard Zhuge Liang take the initiative to answer, he became more surprised and confident:

Not only could Kong Ming calculate the reactions of Yuan and Cao, he could even deduce Yuan Shao's decision-making process just based on the fact that he had been to Yecheng once two years ago!
From a distance of thousands of miles, he tried to guess which faction of the two groups of advisers under Yuan Shao had the upper hand and was being listened to by Yuan Shao.

Liu Bei followed Zhuge Liang's thoughts, sorted out all the details, and finally decided to discuss his own countermeasures.

After all, no matter how well you study the enemy, you still have to rely on actual strategies to implement them. Otherwise, it will be useless to make predictions.

Liu Bei asked sincerely and expectantly, "Sir, what do you think, given the current situation where Yuan and Cao are changing their names with time, how should our army make use of it to be invincible?"

Zhuge Liang thought about this question for a long time before he spoke: "When Yuan Benchu sent someone to contact me a few days ago, my lord dealt with it with the attitude of 'I don't know Cao or Yuan, I only know how to rectify the court'.

It can be seen that our army's previous attitude of "no matter who fights against the traitor Yang Chou, we will support him" has won us a detached position of "not against people but against the matter". Even if Yuan Shao wins, he will still regard us as allies for the time being. And if Cao Cao wins, he will not turn against us for the time being.

Therefore, we do not need to intervene too much in advance on the front battlefield between Yuan and Cao. In contrast, we should pay more attention to what other actions Cao Cao will take after persuading Zhang Xiu to surrender.

For example, will Sun Ce immediately respond to Cao Cao and oppose Yuan Shao? Will Sun Ce's statement give us an excuse to attack? For example, in the Jingnan area of Liu Biao, Zhang Xian originally obeyed orders but not orders. Will he be a drag? Will more disobedient people emerge? These are all issues that we should prioritize.

Ten birds in the bush are worth one bird in the hand. My lord does not have the strength to compete directly with Yuan Shao and Cao Cao at present. Even if Cao Cao defeats Yuan Shao once or twice, it will take several years for Yuan Shao to be weakened slowly because of his strength. Cao Cao cannot swallow Yuan Shao.

Our focus should be on Sun Ce, or some unstable people in Jingnan - and I would suggest that if Jingnan is really unstable, we should focus on Jingnan first, and then Sun Ce.

Sun Ce is much weaker than us. If we don't take the initiative to attack Sun Ce, it will be difficult for Sun Ce to attack us.

Therefore, we do not need to be afraid of fighting on two fronts. In contrast, if there is instability in Jingnan, we can quickly fight and resolve it. Firstly, their strength is far inferior to Sun Ce, and secondly, if there is trouble in Jingnan, Liu Biao will compete with us to quell the rebellion, and even Shi Xie of Jiaozhou may covet some key passes in the Wuling area.

Therefore, we need to seize Jingnan, and whoever strikes first will own it! In contrast, Sun Ce has been completely surrounded by us. Except for the sea in the east, Sun Ce does not border any other princes in other directions.

One is in the bowl, the other is in the pot. When someone is trying to grab food, of course we should eat the food in the pot first! The food in the bowl is already ours, so there is no need to rush! Of course, the premise of doing this is that we really have the strength to ensure that when we grab the food in the pot, we can protect the food in our bowl.

This requires both hands to have a certain amount of strength, defending the east and attacking the west. The east is weak, making sure the food in the bowl is not taken away, while the west is strong, grabbing as much as possible from the pot first. After the west has been divided up and there is nothing left to grab, they will draw people back to the east to slowly eat up the food in the bowl.

(End of this chapter)