Xueba's computing system

Chapter 143 Hardcore Analysis
Lin Yuan loaded the entrances to multiple stock forums into the system, hoping that the system could use this to train a short-term model for sniping good groups.

Lin Yuan did not expect to become a stock god by relying on the system. It was not that he did not want to, but it did not conform to the logic of the system.

Even if Lin Yuan did not try this, he was certain that this operation was not in line with the system settings.

His judgment was entirely deduced from the perspective of AI training.

The two most important points in AI training are: sufficient sampling parameters and sufficient sampling data samples.

This is an objective law determined by the basic principles of current AI training.

Unless this basic principle can be broken, the Trisolarans will have to abide by this law even if they come.

Since Lin Yuan had the system, he has fully realized that his system is a super tool under the scope of scientific laws, and it does not have any supernatural powers that can be given with just one click.

Therefore, let’s start from the two basic elements of AI training.

It is not feasible to rely on the computing power system to train a universal short-term operation model that can be applied to all stocks. The reason is simple, it is stuck on the point of "sufficient sampling data".

This is essentially the same reason why Haotuan cannot come up with a food delivery algorithm, because the sampled data parameters do not fully cover the problem to be solved.

A simple example: There are too many factors that affect the share price of a stock.

Regional economic environment, global economic situation, fluctuations in economic cycles, climate factors, cultural factors, religious and political factors, and even unexpected black swan events.

Even these apparently visible factors are complex enough, so complex that Lin Yuan has no idea how to guide the system to complete the modeling.

Not to mention those invisible factors in the sky. Who knows how those invisible big hands behind the scenes will control the fluctuations of stock prices like kneading clay.

If that’s the case, why is Lin Yuan still thinking about using the computing power system to snipe the team?

Because, if you only want to know part of the answer to the question, then solving the problem does not require you to understand all the unknown parameters in the question.

To explain this, mathematical formulas are far more convincing than words.

Assume: F(x)= f1(x)+ f2(x).

Given 1: F(0) = f1(0);

已知2：F(1)= f1(1)+ 2；

已知3：F(2)= f1(2)+ 4；

Then by forced fitting, it is easy to analyze that: f2(x) = 2x;

Even if you don’t know what f1(x) is, you can still fit the formula for f2(x).

The three known conditions above are equivalent to:
1, f2(0) = 0;

2, f2(1) = 2;

3, f2(2) = 4;

It looks very simple. Why do we have to mix f2 and f1 together?

Yes, why.

Once the formula is laid out, the question everyone will ask is - why.

But when the formula is hidden in the fog of reality, people cannot even detect its existence.

Just like the situation in front of Lin Yuan - f1(x) represents the original trend of Haotuan stock, without the interference of Lin Yuan, the little butterfly flapping its wings. And f2(x) is the variable caused by Lin Yuan, the little butterfly.

As for f1, it is impossible to deduce it with the current technology of mankind, because f1 represents the normal trend of a stock.

But f2 can be derived.

Although f2 is still too complicated for an ordinary person, for the computing system, it is as simple as a linear equation like f(x) = 2x.

To explain this, we need to go back to the two major elements of AI training: the sampling parameters must be sufficient, and the sampling data samples must be sufficient.

The reason why f1 cannot be derived is that the sampling parameters are insufficient.

But f2 does not have this problem at all.

Because f2 represents the interference factor caused by Lin Yuan, the little butterfly.

The interfering factor is naturally that Haotuan takes the opportunity to manipulate the stock price.

Such cases are common in human stock history, and some of them are data for reference by computing systems.

Therefore, the computing system must be able to calculate f2. But is this enough? Lin Yuan knew that it was definitely not enough.

With only the historical data on stock price manipulation, the system can only analyze the general pattern of the manipulation process, but cannot map this pattern to the current stock price of Haotuan.

The ultimate reason is that it is impossible to completely cut off the factors that affect stock prices.

Simply put, it is impossible to accurately divide F(x) into: f1(x) and f2(x).

Because how do you know which stage the stock price is evolving naturally and which stage it is being manipulated.

Only after a wave of harvesting is completed, can we analyze the stocks in hindsight and roughly see the signs of manipulation. When the manipulation occurs, people have no way of knowing it. Otherwise, if the banker still manipulates the stocks, they will definitely choose to leave quietly.

Therefore, if we cannot clearly know the current cycle of a stock, then even if the AI model trained by the computing system is very powerful, its value will be greatly reduced.

Because you have no idea when f2(x) should take effect.

In other words, you don’t know when the stock in front of you was operated, and you don’t know which data to put into the AI model. In other words, you don’t even know what to fill in the parameter x.

However, Lin Yuan not only knew Haotuan's true intention, but was also able to analyze Haotuan's approximate action time from the test iteration records of the food delivery algorithm.

The reason behind this is very simple. The good group must have taken action after confirming that Lin Yuan's food delivery algorithm was effective. Otherwise, why would they suppress him first and then praise him? Self-pollution would really become digging a hole for themselves.

Lin Yuan participated in the whole process of testing the takeaway food, and he was familiar with each time point.

Then combine these time nodes and compare them with the stock price trend of Haotuan, and everything will be almost clear.

So, the system can work.

Even if you have a powerful computing system, you still need to have a solid theoretical foundation if you want to use it well.

Lin Yuan once again made flexible use of the system.

So, after letting the system load the entrances to major stock forums on the Internet, he began to train the system.

Then, his world fast-forwarded two hours again. . .

These two hours were only possible because Xia Ye discovered the situation in time after coming back from class, otherwise, who knows how long Lin Yuan would have been unconscious.

This made Lin Yuan feel that it seemed that the system was extremely difficult to understand when used for stock trading, and this difficulty was even greater than when it was used for mining.

After all, the essence of mining is still blockchain computing, which at least has something to do with cutting-edge technology. But this time, it is completely a brute-force fitting training of stock market data. It is really the truth that is revealed, and there is no pretense at all.

Xia Ye was frightened by Lin Yuan's fainting, and she forced Lin Yuan to lie on the bed. She thought that Lin Yuan had not yet recovered from the recent disaster of being in jail.

Lin Yuan leaned against the head of the bed, listening to Xia Ye busying around in the kitchen, and complained to the system using lip language.

[Tongtong, you made me stay in there for more than a week.]

[Even if you don't compensate me, you should admire my amazing moves. Even if you are a sharp sword, you still need a swordsman who can use you well.]

[This swordsman needs some money to travel around the world. Please help! ]

The system did not respond, and Lin Yuan did not expect it to respond. This was just his boredom.

[How can I make you submit?]

"Come on, drink it while it's hot."

The air was filled with the delicious smell of chicken soup. My hands, which used to be so savory, now don't even have manicures.

"I'll help you cook." Lin Yuan said as he was about to get out of bed.

"Hurry up and lie down. You scared me to death just now. Don't you really want to go to the hospital for a check-up?"

"No need." Lin Yuan was really afraid that the CT scan would show a small black spot in his head.

Lin Yuan took the chicken soup and drank two sips. Then Xia Ye went back to the kitchen to continue working.

[System, if you don’t help me, I will really go get an X-ray. Don’t force me to expose you.]

But there was still no response from the system.

【You are so confident. 】

The delicious chicken soup warmed Lin Yuan's chest and abdomen with love. He suddenly saw the long-lost task list on the system panel - publish an SCI paper.

Lin Yuan smiled evilly, "Hey, you forced me to do this!"

(End of this chapter)