I'm not interested in money or women.

Chapter 67: Fully Long Chu Da Hu

“As I just said, the decline in the first half of this year was due to the gradual dilution of the effect of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy, which is a manifestation of the fact that artificial hype cannot reverse the laws of nature.

The global financial crisis is a natural disaster caused by human greed, which has led to a collapse of credit around the world. This is a problem that cannot be solved by just two rounds of quantitative easing.

Therefore, after two rounds of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the economic problems have not been substantially resolved, and the financing costs of eurozone countries have continued to rise.

Therefore, to judge the future trend of silver, in the long term, whether the European Central Bank can announce a rate cut or launch long-term refinancing operations again is the key factor in the final price of gold and silver.

The US election, the debt ceiling issue, and whether the Federal Reserve will launch the next round of quantitative easing are the most important fundamental conditions that determine the short-term trend of silver.

I want to make a short-term silver trend before the end of the year, so I have to focus on the economic data of the world's major economies, especially the United States, and the introduction of the next round of quantitative easing policy by the Federal Reserve. These fundamental information are the top priority for judging market trends. "

Lu Feng casually clicked on the news and explained to Feng Xiaoxiao as if he knew everything: "Look at the latest statistics. The US economy grew by only 1.3% in the second quarter of this year, and only 0.4% in the first quarter. In the job market, the unemployment rate in July was as high as 7%.

High unemployment, a sharp decline in GDP growth, tight U.S. fiscal policy, a sharp drop in stock prices, and the Fed's increased tolerance for inflation are all factors that may lead to the launch of QE3.

In his opinion, what Lu Feng said are all very basic fundamental judgments.

But to Feng Xiaoxiao, it sounded like a cheat code, as she was observing the dynamics of the entire industry with her X-ray eyes, taking in everything at a glance.

Listening to Lu Feng's explanation, Feng Xiaoxiao felt as if a huge bell was rumbling in her mind, shocking her inexplicably.

Why does Lu Feng have such a broad perspective at such a young age?

Even compared to him, Mr. Chu is like a firefly compared to the bright moon, they are not on the same level at all!

Mr. Chu is a big trader under Feng Xiaoxiao's leadership. His main trading products are precious metals, and more than half of his positions are in silver.

He is engaged in the manufacture of electronic components and owns two factories, which are quite large in scale.

Because the purchased raw materials include a large amount of silver, which accounts for the bulk of the cost, but is often affected by price fluctuations.

So naturally, he entered the futures market to hedge the risk.

Because he is on the front line of industrial production, he is well-informed about industrial buying, so he entered the futures market with 10 million yuan. After more than three years of ups and downs, he now has a margin of more than 30 million yuan.

This time Lu Feng asked her to learn about the silver futures market, so she went to ask Mr. Chu for advice.

The judgment on the rise of market trends in the later period also comes from the analysis of Mr. Chu.

However, Mr. Chu also judges the market by working backwards from the buying information on the production side, and there is also an element of gambling involved.

Lu Feng, on the other hand, starts from a macro perspective and makes scientific judgments based on meticulous analysis and detailed data.

With this level, he can definitely be a professor of economics!

This left Feng Xiaoxiao completely puzzled.

How does Lu Feng possess such terrifying analytical skills?
These are not things you can learn in school!
Watching Lu Feng casually citing various news data and analyzing the price trend of silver, Feng Xiaoxiao suddenly realized that she still didn't know Lu Feng well enough.

Could it be that Lu Feng is a descendant of some wealthy family in the financial circle?
If one had not been engaged in this business for generations and had not been exposed to it since childhood, how could one have such a profound understanding of the market?
But when she searched her memory, she couldn't remember which family had the surname Lu.

Magnifying the economic report data, Lu Feng looked at Feng Xiaoxiao and asked again: "So judging from the fundamentals, can you analyze it again? Is the trend of silver in the future bullish or bearish?"

"I……"

Feng Xiaoxiao hesitated for a moment, but finally admitted honestly: "I don't know. I heard from a big investor who does real business when I said I was bullish in the later period..."

As she spoke, she briefly told Lu Feng about Mr. Chu's situation.

After hearing this, Lu Feng nodded: "No wonder, when buying physical goods, you will definitely look at seasonal transactions, so it is normal to be bullish. He must be mainly bullish, right?"

"Yes."

Feng Xiaoxiao stretched her knees that were aching from kneeling: "He started doing more last month and made millions!"

"This is normal. I will go long first when I open a position this time."

Lu Feng glanced at her knees and gestured, "Go get a pillow to cushion them."

Feng Xiaoxiao was delighted. She stretched out her hands to stand up, went to the bedroom to get a pillow, and knelt beside Lu Feng again.

It’s more comfortable to kneel with a pillow under my feet. He really cares about me!

Feng Xiaoxiao was very happy, and when she looked at Lu Feng, her eyes were full of happy smiles.

Lu Feng smiled faintly, retracted his gaze, pointed at the silver K-line on the screen again, and continued to explain: "Commodities all have obvious seasonal characteristics. For example, the price of natural gas is very cheap in summer, and the price will rise in winter.

The price of wheat is usually higher before the autumn harvest than afterward, and the same is true for the prices of precious metals, which also have certain seasonal trends.

Judging from the price trend, silver has had a clear spring trend in the past 11 years.

Since 01, there has been a sharp rise from mid-January to early April every year, with an average increase of 1%, while the rest of the time is relatively stable.

The biggest increase was last year. In the spring of 11, the price of silver increased by 42.34%.

The big client Chu you mentioned is engaged in physical production, so he is very sensitive to seasonal trends, and he is definitely bullish on the subsequent market."

"I see! No wonder!"

After listening to Lu Feng's explanation, Feng Xiaoxiao suddenly realized: "When Mr. Chu was explaining the market to me, he said that he had studied the data from previous years and found a pattern, so he judged that the market would definitely rise in the future.

I asked him what the pattern was, but he still didn’t tell me. So it seems that he must have discovered this pattern.”

At this point, Feng Xiaoxiao suddenly became confused again: "Since you also know that there is such a pattern, doesn't it mean that his judgment is correct?"

"When doing futures trading, you can never use past years' experience to judge future market conditions. This is a taboo."

Lu Feng smiled and explained: "The so-called seasonal trend is still about supply and demand. The reason why there was a spring market in the past 11 years is because the domestic manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, which is affected by industrial demand.

Silver prices rise at the beginning of the year because customers with industrial silver demand usually place orders at the beginning of the new fiscal year, forming seasonal transactions.

Moreover, the removal of year-end inventories from the books will also strengthen the rising price trend of silver at the beginning of the year.

But the reason why it is called seasonal is that this market situation only fluctuates for a few months and is a short-term trend.

What really determines the long-term trend of silver prices has never been physical buying, but the financial attributes of silver.

If the financial attributes of silver are affected by policies, then even if there is industrial demand to supplement it, there is no way to reverse the general trend. After all, the arm cannot twist the thigh. "

“Policy impact?”

Feng Xiaoxiao tried hard to digest Lu Feng's explanation. After a long while, she finally understood what policy Lu Feng was talking about: "So you think the Fed will definitely launch QE3?"

"Yes."

Lu Feng gave a teachable smile.

Feng Xiaoxiao was delighted when he praised her.

But soon she asked in confusion: "Then silver will definitely rise! With quantitative easing, inflation will definitely be pulled up, and won't the price of precious metals rise accordingly?"

This is what she learned in school. Loosening money supply will definitely stimulate inflation. There is a direct relationship.

"Don't memorize by rote. Theory is just theory after all."

Lu Feng said in a deep voice: "Policies are man-made. Human power is stronger than the law of nature. Human nature is also the law of nature."

He paused, pointed out yesterday's closing price of silver futures on the computer screen, and then continued to explain: "The most effective time period for good news is before it is officially released.

Because the biggest factor that determines economic trends is expectations.

Once the expected positive news is released and there will be no new positive news in the short term, the market will naturally turn downward.

Therefore, according to my judgment, silver futures will definitely rise in the short term, but in the long term, the price of silver will fall! And for at least half a year or more! "

Hearing Lu Feng's firm conclusion, Feng Xiaoxiao's heart was also shocked.

After listening to Lu Feng's analysis from beginning to end, she has basically agreed with Lu Feng's judgment.

However, if the market is really bearish in the long term as Lu Feng judged, then Mr. Chu, who is fully long, will be liquidated, right?
(End of this chapter)