Football: Starting from the 05 World Youth Championship

With the complete list of teams participating in the South Africa World Cup finalized, the draw for the group stage of the 32 participating teams was held on December 28 at the Cape Town International Convention Centre in South Africa.

Compared to the Golden Globe Awards ceremony a few days ago, this draw ceremony has attracted more attention from the outside world.

More than 2 guests attended the lottery ceremony alone, and more than 1700 media reporters came to the scene to report on the lottery ceremony. The ceremony was broadcast live in more than 200 countries and regions around the world, and more than 4 million people watched the live broadcast at the same time. China alone contributed nearly half of the viewers!
Although the organizers arranged for famous singers to perform on stage, the vast majority of Chinese fans watching the live broadcast had no attention on these singers at all.

They were already daydreaming, using the Chinese football fans' talent for calculation to figure out which group the national team would be most advantageous for them.

The seeding for the South Africa World Cup was not entirely based on strength and ranking. Apart from the teams in the first tier, all the teams in the second tier came from Asia, Oceania, and North and Central America.

Five African teams and three South American teams are in the third tier, while all the teams in the fourth tier are from Europe.

The result of this tiered system is that the second tier is insignificant, while the third and fourth tiers are the key to determining whether a group is a "death group".

As an Asian team, the Chinese national football team was automatically relegated to the second tier.

Before the opponents in the third and fourth tiers are determined, being placed in a weaker group in the first tier would obviously be very beneficial for their qualification.

Aside from South Africa, the host nation, all the other top-tier teams are formidable opponents. The Chinese national team would likely lose most of them. Therefore, the best outcome for us would be being drawn into the same group as the host nation!

South Africa's strength is around 50th, so if we were to rank them by strength, they would only be in the fourth tier.

But because they were the hosts, they were automatically placed in the first tier, making them an easy target for everyone to try and get their hands on.

[With eight number one seeds in total, the probability of the Chinese national football team being drawn against South Africa is less than one in eight. That's incredibly difficult!]

If we really can't draw South Africa, then among the remaining seven top seeds, England, whom we just played, might be a relatively better choice!

We can't take the results of the warm-up matches too seriously. What if we draw England, then a South American team in the third tier, and a European team in the fourth tier? Wouldn't we be sandwiched in the middle?

[Yes, teams from continents other than Europe cannot be grouped together. If we are drawn into a group with South American teams, then the third pot teams can only be African teams. Although the fourth pot teams will be European teams, we might encounter weaker teams. If we can get one win and one draw against the third and fourth pot teams, we will have a high probability of advancing!]

That being said, aren't Brazil and Argentina, the two top seeds, just too strong? If the Chinese national team gets crushed by them, they might not be able to beat other teams!

[So what can we do? How many of the teams that qualify for the World Cup are easy opponents? This group stage is already the best-case scenario!]

For Chinese fans who have been away from the World Cup for eight years, this World Cup group stage draw is of paramount importance.

Whether the Chinese men's football team can go further in the World Cup depends entirely on this draw.

However, no matter how much the fans calculated, they couldn't come up with a group that satisfied everyone.

[It's starting! Stop arguing, let's see who draws the lots!]

Because the host country is responsible for playing the opening match, the South African team skipped the draw and automatically entered Group A as the host country.

After South Africa, the first team drawn by the guests was Argentina, who were placed in Group B.

Following that, the top seeds from England, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Brazil, and Spain were drawn one after another and assigned to Groups C through H.

The result is largely unchanged from the previous one, but because of the variable of the Chinese team, the second draw might bring unexpected changes!
After the first-tier teams were drawn, the eyes of fans around the world were focused on the pool containing the second-tier teams.

There are eight teams in this ball pool: China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, the United States, Mexico, and Honduras.

Compared to the previous era, the second-tier teams now include China but have removed New Zealand.

New Zealand, who had defeated Bahrain in the World Cup qualifying playoffs to qualify for the World Cup, suffered a blow from the butterfly effect brought about by the Chinese team.

In this generation, the Asian team that was squeezed into the playoffs was not Bahrain, but Japan.

Despite managing a 1-1 draw against Japan at home, New Zealand suffered a crushing 1-3 defeat away from home, ultimately losing their spot to Japan and failing to qualify for the World Cup finals.

Pick us! Pick us! Pick us!

The moment the prize draw guest reached into the pool, countless Chinese fans were praying that those big hands would pull out the Chinese team.

Unfortunately, the team drawn from the pool was not China, but Mexico from North America.

Mexico's luck is terrible; they're practically guaranteed a spot in the round of 16!

[Absolutely! If I were a Mexican fan, I'd be grinning from ear to ear!]

Mexico's good fortune wasn't just drawing the host country, but also receiving a massive traffic boost for the opening match.

With their strength, they are likely to win the opening match, which means they will enjoy the attention and gain substantial benefits at the same time. They are simply dominating the game!

After Mexico, South Korea, the United States, Australia, and Japan were drawn in succession.

Only three teams remain in the ball pool: China, North Korea, and Honduras.

[Oh no, the only top seeds left in the group are Italy, Brazil, and Spain.]

These three teams are incredibly strong; the Chinese national team won't have an easy time no matter which group they're drawn into!

The remaining three teams are either strong favorites to win the championship, or the defending champions and the champions of the previous two World Cups. They don't seem like teams that the Chinese national team can challenge.

The fans were already disheartened by the result.

The guest draw didn't keep Chinese fans waiting long; the Chinese team was drawn in the next second.

"China, Group F!"

The female host loudly announced the name of the Chinese team and their group; they had been assigned to Group F, which included the defending champions, Italy!
【It's over, it's really over now!】

[The Chinese national football team's luck is truly unparalleled; they ran into the defending champions as soon as they stepped out the door!]

On major domestic forums and online communities, fans were immediately filled with lamentations upon seeing this result.

They can still put up a fight against other teams, but against Italy, there's really nothing they can do.

It's always tough for a weak team to play against a strong team, especially since Italy is one of the most defensively-minded teams in Europe.

This is truly a situation where you are completely outmatched, and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it.

Following the Chinese national football team, the North Korean team and the Honduran team were placed in Group G and Group H respectively.

Next up were the teams from the third tier. Since three of these teams were from South America, and South American teams are generally considered strong, Chinese football fans were praying they wouldn't be drawn against them. But their worst fears came true: Paraguay, from South America, was drawn into Group F, the same group as China.

This made the qualification situation in Group F instantly unpredictable.

With Italy, China, Paraguay, and an undecided European team, many are already sensing the impending doom of a "group of death."

The fans were speechless; the Chinese national football team's luck was truly terrible!
Apart from the top seed in the group, the remaining three teams are very close in strength and all have a chance to advance, which means that the qualification situation in Group F will be very complicated.

Let's see who we draw for the last team. There are some relatively weak teams in Europe, like Greece, Denmark, Slovenia, and Serbia. If we draw them, the Chinese national team only needs to beat Paraguay to advance!

[Please, whatever you do, avoid drawing teams like France, Portugal, or Switzerland. If you're unlucky enough to be drawn against them, the Chinese national team will only be fighting for honor!]

As the results of the first three rounds of the draw were announced, the atmosphere on the forum gradually became tense.

A harsh reality is before everyone: even if the Chinese national football team draws a relatively weak European team in the final group draw, given the current situation in the group, it will be extremely difficult for the Chinese team to advance from the group stage.

On the bright side, at least this draw was better than the one for the Japan-Korea World Cup, wasn't it?

During the Japan-Korea World Cup, the Chinese national football team also had bad luck.

In the group stage, they faced Brazil, the champion, and Türkiye, the third-place finisher. At the time, it seemed that the Chinese national team had a chance.

However, from a post-match review perspective, the Chinese national football team was already doomed when the group draw results were announced.

Compared to eight years ago, the current Chinese national football team has improved significantly in terms of its own strength. Although Italy is strong, it may not be able to compare with the Brazilian team in 2002.

As for Paraguay, although they are a traditional powerhouse in South America, their strength may not surpass that of Türkiye back in the day.

As long as the final draw doesn't involve traditional European powerhouses like France or Portugal, the Chinese national team still has a chance to advance.

The guests in charge of the draw clearly knew what everyone was paying attention to; the European teams in the fourth tier would largely determine the "terror" level of each group.

Whether or not a "death squad" will emerge depends entirely on his divine intervention.

The guest picked up the first small ball, but instead of opening it immediately, looked up at the audience and said in a joking tone:

"I know many people are starting to get nervous, haha, me too, and I even regret not buying more personal safety insurance in advance!"

This joke eased the tense atmosphere slightly and gave him a way out:
If you draw a bad result later, please don't blame him; he's just someone who draws lots.

However, when he opened the small ball in his hand, his expression changed drastically, and his smile was more like a grimace:
"The fourth team in Group A is—France!"

A gasp of surprise erupted from the crowd, and almost all the cameras were focused on the South African leader sitting next to the FIFA president.

The South African president looked extremely grim. The draw of Mexico and Uruguay had already put the host country in a very difficult position.

Now, I've won the grand prize in the fourth tier – the strongest team in the fourth tier, France!
Group A, where the host team is located, has become a group of death, as they are the weakest of the four teams in the group.

This lottery result is practically a death sentence for them.

South Africans may become the worst host nation in nearly forty years!

Human joys and sorrows are not shared. While South Africans lamented their bad luck in drawing the French team, fans of other teams cheered in their hearts.

Among the eight teams in the fourth tier, three are relatively strong: France, Portugal, and Switzerland.

Now that the strongest team, France, has been eliminated, the other teams that were on edge can finally breathe a sigh of relief.

The Chinese national football fans, who had been in despair, have started to become active again:
[France has been eliminated, giving the Chinese national team renewed hope!]

[Things are getting better!]

Keep up the good work! Try to remove Portugal, Switzerland, and Denmark from the squad, and leave Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the national team!

However, the weak teams they were talking about were not left behind; instead, they were drawn one after another in the subsequent draws.

When it came to Group F, only Portugal, Switzerland, and Slovakia remained in the card pool.

Chinese fans are stunned. How could the national football team encounter such a low probability event?

Given the Chinese national football team's terrible luck, with only a one-in-three chance of drawing a favorable opponent, they are highly likely to be drawn against a strong team.

However, the next second, the weakest of the remaining three teams, Slovakia, was drawn.

This unexpected turn of events almost broke the backs of the fans.

A few minutes later, the drawing ceremony ended, and the results of the draw for all eight groups were announced.

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia
Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay, China, Slovakia

Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile

Judging from the situation in each group, Group A, where the host country is located, Group F, where the defending champion Italy is located, and Group G, where five-time champion Brazil is located, can all be called the groups of death.

Apart from the top seeds in each group, other teams will have to go through a lot to get out of these three groups!

Despite being placed in the "group of death," the Chinese team still has a chance to advance, but it will be very difficult and there is almost no room for error.

Of the three group stage matches, the Chinese national team cannot afford to lose the remaining two, except for the match against the defending champions, Italy. If they lose one of them, the Chinese national team can basically pack their bags and go home.

Besides the Chinese team, the North Korean team was also placed in the "group of death," making their situation even worse than that of the Chinese national team.

On the contrary, South Korea's group draw was very ideal, the easiest group to advance among all Asian teams.

The situations for Japan and Australia are similar; both will face difficulties advancing, but it's clearly easier for them than for North Korea and China. (End of Chapter)