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Chapter 924 $12 billion, the biggest gain since transmigrating!
Mexico's debt crisis is more serious than anyone imagined.
Over the next month, Mexico was plunged into an unprecedented abyss.
The peso continued its freefall, the stock market repeatedly triggered circuit breakers, businesses went bankrupt en masse, unemployment soared, and social unrest intensified.
Everything that was once known as the "Miracle of Mexico" vanished in this crisis.
Those investors who are still frantically selling, those speculators who are still trying to buy at the bottom, and those institutions that are still watching from the sidelines have all lost everything in this storm.
This is the cruelty of the financial market.
September in Mexico should be a season of clear skies, crisp air, and harvest.
But for Mexicans, September 1982 brought only endless cold and despair.
The peso exchange rate has fallen to 120 pesos to 1 US dollar.
From 12.5 pesos before the default to 120 pesos now, the Mexican peso has depreciated nearly tenfold in just twenty days.
Those who have savings in the bank watched helplessly as their savings turned into worthless paper.
An ordinary worker's hard-earned savings, which could have bought a small house, can now not even buy a month's worth of food.
The stock market has completely lost its meaning.
The Mexican Stock Exchange experienced more than 30 consecutive circuit breakers before finally closing indefinitely.
Those stocks that were once priceless are now worth less than waste paper.
Banco Nacional, Banco Comerciale, and Banco Nord, companies once hailed as the "pillars of Mexican finance," have all declared bankruptcy.
A wave of business closures swept across the country.
Textile factories, electronics factories, auto parts factories, food processing plants... one after another, they closed down.
The bosses absconded with the money, and the workers were kicked out.
The unemployment rate has soared to over 40%, and the streets are full of people looking for work, but where can they find any jobs?
Social unrest is escalating.
Robberies, thefts, and violent incidents are rampant.
The police have lost the ability to maintain order, and the army has been deployed to the streets, but they are also helpless in the face of the angry crowd.
Tanks rolled into Reforma Avenue in Mexico City, and soldiers with guns at their ready confronted the demonstrators.
At the border crossing, a massive influx of refugees is taking place.
Every day, tens of thousands of Mexicans attempt to enter the United States.
They were traveling with their families, carrying luggage, their eyes filled with despair.
Refugee camps along the U.S. border are already overcrowded, but more people are still flocking in.
"Let us through!"
"We must survive!"
In front of the barbed wire fence, people screamed, cried, and desperately reached out their hands.
But on the other side, there were only indifferent gazes.
On television, reporters broadcast the latest news in trembling voices.
"According to official statistics, this crisis has led to the unemployment of more than 500 million people, the closure of 3000 businesses, and inflation soaring to over 100%. Economists predict that the Mexican economy may need ten years to recover..."
"Ten years," the Mexican in front of the television murmured, his eyes filled with bewilderment.
Ten years is too long.
It's long enough to drive a generation to despair.
Meanwhile, thousands of miles away in Hong Kong, Lin Haoran stood in front of the oval window on the 51st floor of the Connaught Building, looking at the view of Victoria Harbour.
Sunlight shone on the sea, creating a shimmering, peaceful scene.
This stands in stark contrast to the chaos in Mexico City at this moment.
Today is September 12th, exactly one month since the Mexican president announced his inability to repay his debts.
On his desk lay the latest report that Su Zhixue had just sent.
“Boss, the peso has fallen to 120 pesos to 1 US dollar. Our position of 30 billion US dollars is now worth more than 150 billion US dollars.”
$150 billion, which means that after deducting the $30 billion principal, the profit has reached $120 billion.
The number flashed through Lin Haoran's mind, and a faint smile appeared on his lips.
His initial goal was to make $10 billion from that $3 billion, but now it has far exceeded his expectations.
$ 120 billion.
This is four times his initial investment of $30 billion.
Lin Haoran picked up the Da Hong Pao tea, took a small sip, and the aroma of the tea filled his mouth.
Although the funds have not yet been realized, Lin Haoran is not worried at all.
The Mexican debt crisis is a long-term process and will not end so quickly.
The peso will continue to fall, asset prices will continue to decline, and market panic will persist for a long time.
Therefore, he has plenty of time to calmly close his positions and realize his profits.
However, he already has plans for further investments, so it's time to close out his positions.
Because he knew that even if his profits increased, they wouldn't increase by a large margin.
$120 billion in profit is enough; any further greed might backfire.
Lin Haoran put down his teacup, picked up the phone, and dialed Su Zhixue's number.
"Zhixue, you can start closing out your positions now."
Su Zhixue's voice carried a hint of hesitation: "Boss, the peso is still falling. Should we wait a while longer? It might go even higher."
Lin Haoran laughed and said, "No need, 120 billion is enough. If we wait any longer, the risks outweigh the opportunities. We'll liquidate our positions in batches and clear them out slowly over a week."
Su Zhixue solemnly replied, "Understood!"
"In addition, please help me compile an analysis report on the debt situation and future economic trends of Latin American countries."
Lin Haoran added, "The key countries are Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela. After Mexico, other Latin American countries probably won't last much longer."
This is Lin Haoran's next important plan.
The Mexican debt crisis is far more than just a problem for Mexico alone.
Lin Haoran clearly remembers that after the Mexican debt crisis broke out, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Peru and Chile also experienced difficulties in repaying their debts and announced the termination or postponement of foreign debt repayment.
The debt crisis in these countries spread rapidly, plunging the entire Latin American region into economic distress.
The debt crisis has led to stagnant economic growth, soaring unemployment, persistently high inflation, and a general decline in real wages in Latin America.
整个20世纪80年代,拉美地区国内生产总值年均增长率仅为1.2%,制造业年均增长率仅为0.4%,地区贫困率由1980年的40.5%升至1990年的48.3%。
This period is known as the "lost decade" for Latin American economies.
The reason that led to the outbreak of the Latin American debt crisis is also very simple.
In the 1970s, interest rates in the international financial market were low, and Latin American countries borrowed heavily in foreign debt.
However, after 1979, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply, causing the debt costs of Latin American countries that adopted floating interest rates to soar.
At the same time, the appreciation of the US dollar led to a decline in global commodity prices, reduced export revenue for Latin American countries, and a significant drop in their debt repayment capacity.
Latin American countries have serious deficiencies in debt management, such as an unreasonable debt maturity structure, an excessively high proportion of public external debt, and an over-reliance on short-term external debt.
These factors have led to a rapid deterioration in the debt repayment capacity of Latin American countries when faced with external shocks.
The outbreak of the Mexican debt crisis was the beginning of a debt crisis that ignited the entire Latin American countries.
Lin Haoran knew exactly what was going to happen next.
Mexico has fallen, and next up are Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Chile...
One after another, like dominoes, they all fell down.
Latin America as a whole will be plunged into a decade-long economic winter.
Those countries once hailed as the "Latin American Miracle," those with economic growth rates that once drew the world's envy, and those cities that were once full of hope will all succumb to this crisis.
Ten years, a full ten years.
The youth and hopes of a generation will be completely consumed in these ten years.
Lin Haoran could imagine the scene that would unfold across the entire Latin American country.
Hungry children in Brazilian slums, protesters in the streets of Argentina, long lines at gas stations in Venezuela, and the desperate looks in the eyes of Chilean miners…
It's tragic, truly tragic.
But what does this have to do with him?
He is just an investor, not a savior.
In the financial markets, sympathy is the most useless thing. All he can do is be greedy when others are fearful, enter the market when others are desperate, and make a fortune when others lose everything.
This is the logic of capital.
Cruel, but true.
Moreover, with everyone's attention focused on Mexico, isn't this the perfect opportunity for him to secretly make moves in other Latin American countries?
While everyone is focused on the devastation in Mexico, while the media is bombarding Mexico City with reports of chaos, and while Wall Street analysts are busy calculating their losses in Mexico, who will notice that someone is quietly observing Brazil's debt structure?
Who would notice that someone is secretly analyzing Argentina's foreign exchange reserves?
Who would notice that someone is quietly assessing Venezuela's oil revenue to debt ratio?
Yes, some people are definitely paying attention, but certainly not many.
And that's exactly what Lin Haoran wanted.
Su Zhixue paused for a moment on the other end of the phone.
"Boss, are you saying the debt crisis will spread?"
Lin Haoran laughed and said, "It's not a question of whether or not, it's certain. Mexico is just the first domino to fall. Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela, their debt problems are not much better than Mexico's."
When market panic spreads and international capital completely withdraws from Latin America, none of these countries will escape.
He paused, his tone becoming more resolute: "We need to prepare in advance. Once the Mexican side has finished closing out its positions and the funds are in place, the next step is to keep an eye on the entire Latin America region, especially Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela."
Now, everyone's attention is on Mexico, on how this unprecedented debt crisis will end. Wall Street analysts, international media reporters, and government officials from various countries are all focused on Mexico City.
And this is precisely our opportunity. The recent decline in Mexican stocks is nearing its bottom, making this the perfect time for us to close our positions, withdraw, and move our funds to the next battleground.
Su Zhixue took a deep breath, his voice filled with barely suppressed excitement: "Boss, I understand! Once the Mexican side is closed out, we'll turn our attention to Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela."
While everyone's attention is still on Mexico, let's lay the groundwork for our next target!
He has completely convinced himself of his boss's abilities. Since his boss said that Latin American countries would fall into a debt crisis like Mexico, then they definitely will!
As the boss's top strategist, all he had to do was execute the boss's orders and wait to count the money.
Having followed Lin Haoran for so many years, Su Zhixue had long understood one thing: his boss was never wrong.
From Hong Kong stocks to US stocks and Japanese stocks, from accurately predicting the rise of Wharf Holdings' share price to the Mexican debt crisis, every step has been frighteningly accurate.
This time will certainly be no exception.
“Go ahead, take a week to liquidate your positions in Mexico, then prepare the funds so you can enter the next battlefield at any time,” Lin Haoran said with a smile.
Su Zhixue solemnly replied, "Understood!"
Lin Haoran nodded, thought for a moment, and continued, "By the way, remember, this time we need to be even more low-key than in Mexico. With Soros holding the line in Mexico, we can take advantage of the chaos."
Next time, we need to slack off on our own, without letting anyone find out.
Su Zhixue nodded solemnly: "Understood, boss. I will have the team do the strictest confidentiality work. All operations will be carried out through different accounts to avoid attracting any attention."
Lin Haoran gave a satisfied "hmm".
He always trusted Su Zhixue's ability to handle affairs.
Over the years, under the leadership of Su Zhixue, Huanyu Investment Company has never made any mistakes.
Whether it was absorbing Wharf Holdings shares, secretly acquiring Hongkong Land, shorting Jardine Matheson, or shorting Mexico, every step was taken discreetly and precisely.
Lin Haoran was in a great mood after hanging up the phone.
The Victoria Harbour sun shone on him, warm and bright.
$120 billion! This must be his biggest investment return in recent years.
Once the position is successfully closed, this money will become his sharpest weapon.
$120 billion, without even needing to spend all of it, is enough for him to stir up a lot of trouble in the upcoming Latin American crisis.
Of course, he didn't dare to commit everything.
This sum of money is so large that it can easily influence a country's financial market.
If all of it is invested, it will inevitably cause abnormal market fluctuations and alarm the wolves of Wall Street with their keen sense of smell.
In that case, not only will you not make money, but you may also be targeted by others.
Lin Haoran was well aware of this.
Therefore, the rules he will set for Su Zhixue next are: diversify investments, enter the market in batches, and only use a portion of the profits earned this time for investment.
For example, Brazil has a larger population than Mexico, so it could secretly invest $40 billion.
Argentina and Venezuela have far smaller economies and populations than Mexico and Brazil, so more caution is needed when investing in them.
For each of these two countries, an investment of around $10 billion would suffice!
The three countries have invested a total of six billion US dollars, which is his ammunition for the next phase.
It's enough to stir up a storm in Latin America, but not so conspicuous as to attract unnecessary attention.
As for the remaining money, it will naturally be used for other purposes.
This ensures both profitability and security.
Lin Haoran's smile deepened.
It remains to be seen how much profit this $60 billion will generate for him.
He held his teacup, took a small sip, and began to sketch out a blueprint in his mind.
Brazil has a foreign debt of over $850 billion, the highest in Latin America, even more than Mexico, while its foreign exchange reserves are only a few billion dollars.
The São Paulo stock market is barely holding on, but international capital has already begun to quietly withdraw.
Once the panic in Mexico subsides, this South American giant will collapse.
Argentina has a foreign debt of over $400 billion, and its inflation rate has soared to triple digits. The per capita foreign debt is $1400, ranking among the highest in the world.
Protesters have begun to gather on the streets of Buenos Aires.
Those once-prosperous ranchers are now selling off their land for dollars.
This country is already standing on the edge of a precipice.
Venezuela, with the world's largest oil reserves, has seen its income plummet due to the collapse in oil prices, while its foreign debt has also reached $331 billion. Similar to Mexico, Venezuela relies on oil revenues, and when oil prices fall sharply, its fate is the same as Mexico's.
In Caracas, the wealthy areas and the slums are separated by only one wall.
If oil revenues drop, the entire country will descend into chaos.
And those debts secured by oil must not be reduced by a single penny.
These three countries are Lin Haoran's top priorities for his next target.
As for the remaining small countries, he didn't care so much.
Just like now, he has become somewhat disdainful of the Hong Kong stock market.
When you have enough capital, the overall situation will naturally change.
"Boss, are you coming to my place again tonight?" Liu Xiaoli asked as she walked in with a cup of coffee.
"No, I probably won't be coming to the company for the next few days. You can study on your own." Lin Haoran took the hot coffee, pushed the cold Da Hong Pao tea aside, and smiled.
"Is Xiaohan about to give birth?" Liu Xiaoli hesitated for a moment before asking.
Guo Xiaohan's pregnancy is no secret in Hong Kong.
Moreover, Guo Xiaohan was Lin Haoran's lawfully wedded wife, so there was no need to hide it.
Lin Haoran nodded, a rare gentleness appearing on his face: "My due date is in the next few days, I have to go to the hospital to be with her."
Guo Xiaohan's due date is approaching, and she checked into the hospital's delivery room yesterday.
He wouldn't have come to the Kang Le Building if it weren't for important matters concerning Mexico today.
However, with profits exceeding ten billion US dollars, his largest ever gain, it was certainly worth the trip for him to make personally.
A hint of envy flashed in Liu Xiaoli's eyes, but she quickly concealed it and nodded with a smile: "Then I congratulate the boss in advance. Mother and child are safe and sound. It must be a healthy baby."
As Lin Haoran's personal secretary and lover, Liu Xiaoli's identity is indeed somewhat complicated.
She had been with Lin Haoran for a year. From the moment she mustered up the courage to ask him to take her to Hong Kong in Shenzhen, to later becoming his woman, she knew her place all along the way.
She could never become the legal wife; she would always remain in the shadows.
But she doesn't regret it.
Lin Haoran treated her very well, giving her more money than an ordinary person could earn in several lifetimes, a luxury house on the hillside, a stable life, and letting her see the world's splendor.
What she needs to do is to be law-abiding and fulfill her responsibilities.
This is enough.
"Boss, I want to make a request to you," Liu Xiaoli suddenly said, mustering her courage.
"Make a request? Go ahead." Lin Haoran looked at the other person with some surprise.
"I want to have your child too!" (End of Chapter)
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