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Chapter 919 The Second Opportunity: Invest $3 Billion!
For the next ten days or so, Lin Haoran spent most of his time traveling back and forth between the Shi Xun Road villa and the Old Hilltop Road villa.
Both ends are home, both ends are places of longing.
In Shi Xundao's villa, Guo Xiaohan's belly grew bigger every day, making her movements increasingly clumsy, but her smile became more and more gentle.
Every time Lin Haoran went back, he would accompany her for a walk in the garden and listen to her talk about all the things she had prepared for the child, such as what color the nursery was decorated in, how many little clothes she had bought, and what brand of formula she was using.
Meanwhile, at the villa on the old mountaintop, Xiao Lele changes every day.
The wrinkled little face at birth gradually smoothed out, the skin became fair and tender, and the eyes began to focus.
Guan Jiahui held her in her arms, unable to get enough of looking at her.
Although there was a professional childcare team in the villa, Lin's mother still stayed behind.
Perhaps this was also to express gratitude for Guan Jiahui's silent contributions to the Lin family, and also to put her mind at ease as a mother-in-law.
Lin's mother knew that Guan Jiahui couldn't stand openly by Lin Haoran's side like Guo Xiaohan, but she had given birth to the Lin family's first granddaughter, and this achievement deserved her personal care as the mother-in-law.
Therefore, for the past ten days or so, Lin's mother has been staying at the villa on the top of Old Hill, personally overseeing the work of the postpartum nanny and nutritionist, and asking about every little detail.
Before we knew it, it was August.
In August, Hong Kong was hit by a Category 12 typhoon. Although it barely passed by, it brought strong winds and heavy rain, bringing the entire city to a brief standstill for two days.
After the typhoon passed, the air in Hong Kong was exceptionally fresh, the surface of Victoria Harbour returned to calm, and the sun shone again on this bustling city.
However, the sweltering heat was temporarily relieved, and the air was filled with a rare coolness.
On August 3, Guo Xiaohan's due date was less than a month and a half away.
Lin Haoran left the villa on Shi Xun Road that morning and went directly to the Kang Le Building.
During this period, he rarely came here, only three times in half a month. He spent most of his time with Guo Xiaohan, Guan Jiahui, and their newborn daughter.
Lin Haoran had just sat down in his office chair when Liu Xiaoli walked in carrying a freshly brewed cup of Da Hong Pao tea.
He took the hot tea, took a small sip, and gazed at the clear sky outside the window.
Hong Kong was exceptionally clean and refreshing after the typhoon.
Just then, the landline phone rang.
Liu Xiaoli walked over and answered the call. After listening for a few minutes, she turned to Lin Haoran and said, "Boss, it's Mr. Su Zhixue calling from the United States."
Lin Haoran nodded, took the phone, waved, and gestured for Liu Xiaoli to go out first.
Although Liu Xiaoli's loyalty was as high as 99%, he could roughly guess the purpose of Su Zhixue's call this time.
Therefore, even with 100% confidence, it's best to keep as few people as possible from knowing about his plan in case it gets leaked.
After Liu Xiaoli left the office and closed the door, Lin Haoran asked with a smile, "Zhixue, is there anything you need to report?"
Su Zhixue's voice came from the other end of the phone, tinged with barely concealed excitement: "Boss, good news! The Mexican market is performing even better than we expected."
The peso exchange rate has remained stable for three consecutive days at the level before Soros's propaganda campaign, and the stock market has basically recovered its losses. Although the IMF's loan is only a drop in the bucket, market confidence has been fully restored.
I'll fax you a report on the Mexican market's performance over the past few days shortly!
Lin Haoran smiled upon hearing this, showing no surprise.
All of this was within his expectations.
After all, the Mexican debt crisis didn't officially erupt until mid-August. In this world, the crisis was brought to the fore due to Soros's involvement with Lin Haoran.
The current situation is simply a matter of getting back on track.
He even felt that the world seemed to have the ability to fix the course of history.
Soros triggered panic ahead of time, but Lin Haoran stepped forward to expose Soros and publicly supported Mexico. As a result, the Mexican government received loan assistance from the International Monetary Fund ahead of schedule, and the market regained confidence.
But all of this is just an appearance.
The real crisis will still come.
Because none of those fundamental problems have been solved.
Lin Haoran laughed and said, "So, the time has come for us to make our plans?"
“Yes, boss.” Su Zhixue’s voice was even more certain. “According to our team’s analysis, the panic in the Mexican market has completely subsided, investor confidence is high, and asset prices have returned to a reasonable range.”
More importantly, those high-quality assets that were previously panic-sold are now becoming active again, which is the perfect time for us to re-enter the market.
Lin Haoran remained silent for a few seconds, his mind quickly flashing through a series of data and potential risks.
His past life memories told him that the Mexican debt crisis truly broke out on August 12, 1982, which is the 12th of this month.
Now it's August 3rd, and there are only 9 days left until the 12th.
However, he knew that the current "restoration of confidence" in the market was merely the calm before the storm.
Those investors who bought in frantically, and those institutions that thought the crisis was over, will soon lose everything in the real storm.
The Mexican government is merely putting on a brave face, trying every possible way to delay the inevitable and convince the market that they are capable of repaying their debts.
However, Mexico's Ministry of Finance is probably struggling to cope with its massive foreign debt every day.
The three billion US dollars loan from the International Monetary Fund is an astronomical figure for ordinary companies, but it does not solve the fundamental problem of a country's debt crisis at all.
The mountain of foreign debt, the principal and interest due soon, and the ever-depreciating oil revenues—each of these is enough to keep Mexican government finance officials up at night.
What the Mexican government is doing now is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul, using new debt to pay off old debt, and trying to prolong the crisis as long as possible.
What Lin Haoran needs to do is to quietly place his chips again before the storm arrives, and then reap the rewards when the storm comes.
"Alright, let's get started. There's still time. I'll give you a week to make the arrangements!" Lin Haoran said with a smile.
"Boss, how much will we spend on this setup?" Su Zhixue asked.
Last time, they invested $15 billion and ultimately made a whopping $32 billion.
This time, the boss said he's going to make a second major strategic move, so the investment will definitely be substantial.
Su Zhixue waited for Lin Haoran's answer on the other end of the phone, his mind already rapidly calculating various possibilities.
With a principal of 15 billion, the net profit was 32 billion, resulting in a return of over 200%.
Even with a reduced rate of return, investing more this time would still yield considerable profits.
Lin Haoran, holding a cup of hot tea, looked at the bright sunshine outside the window, a smile appearing on his lips, and said, "Zhixue, how much do you think we should bet this time?"
Su Zhixue hesitated for a moment, then said cautiously, "Boss, based on the current market situation, asset prices in Mexico have returned to normal levels, and volatility is much lower than last time."
I suggest investing between 15 billion and 20 billion, to be conservative, since opportunities like the last one are rare.
Lin Haoran laughed and said, "Not enough, Zhixue, you're still too conservative."
Su Zhixue was taken aback: "Boss, you mean..."
“30 billion,” Lin Haoran said decisively. “Take out 30 billion of the 32 billion we earned last time and invest it all.”
There was a few seconds of silence on the other end of the phone.
Su Zhixue seemed to be processing this number.
$ 30 billion.
This is no small amount.
He was already shocked by the $32 billion they reaped from the Mexican market last time.
Now the boss wants to reinvest 30 billion of it back. What does this mean?
This means that the boss has more confidence in his assessment of the Mexican market than anyone else.
“Boss,” Su Zhixue asked cautiously, “Are you sure? A company worth 30 billion could attract market attention if not handled properly.”
Furthermore, is it really possible for Mexico to collapse? We have been investigating the latest situation at the Mexican Ministry of Finance, but there has been no progress.
Most Wall Street insiders believe that while Mexico's debt remains high, it is not yet at the point of being unable to repay.
After all, the International Monetary Fund has already stepped in to help, the US government will not sit idly by while its own backyard catches fire, and Mexico itself is actively adjusting its policies. Many people believe that the most dangerous moment has passed.
This is why the Mexican market was able to regain confidence in such a short time. Lin Haoran's smile deepened as he listened to Su Zhixue's words.
Does this mean that most people in the industry on Wall Street think this way?
That's right.
If everyone can see a crisis, then it's no longer a crisis.
It is this widespread optimism that keeps asset prices at artificially high levels and masks the real risks beneath the surface calm.
But when the storm truly arrives, those who are blindly optimistic will find themselves standing on the edge of a cliff.
“Zhixue,” Lin Haoran said slowly, “I have a question for you.”
"Please speak, boss."
"How much of Mexico's debt do you think the International Monetary Fund's three billion dollars would be enough to pay off?"
Su Zhixue thought for a moment and said, "Mexico's total foreign debt is said to have reached a terrifying figure of three billion US dollars, which is probably not even a fraction of what it is."
Lin Haoran nodded and smiled, "Then that settles it. Thirty billion US dollars isn't even enough to cover the interest. All the Mexican government can do now is use this money to create a false impression and make the market believe that they still have the ability to repay. But a false impression is just a false impression and won't last long."
Su Zhixue remained silent for a few seconds, seemingly pondering his boss's words.
"But boss, what if the US government intervenes? Mexico is, after all, America's backyard. They won't just stand by and do nothing, will they?"
Lin Haoran smiled.
“Zhixue, remember this: the US government will only bail out those who deserve it. Mexico’s problems are structural, and they can’t be solved by just lending money.”
Even if the US intervenes, it will only bail out the large banks with which it has a vested interest, not the Mexican government. As for the investors, they can only pray for themselves.
This crisis clearly demonstrates that the US government is letting Soros run rampant and has no intention of intervening. The Mexican government's attempt to place its hopes on the US government is simply a waste of time.
Su Zhixue took a deep breath and said seriously, "I understand, boss. So, shall we invest all 30 billion US dollars?"
“Yes.” Lin Haoran said decisively, “Invest all 30 billion US dollars. Remember, just like the first time, diversify the accounts and enter the market in batches, without attracting any attention.”
I predicted that the Mexican government wouldn't last much longer, which is why I gave you a week to plan. When the storm comes, we can reap the rewards again.
Su Zhixue solemnly replied, "Yes, boss, I'll arrange it right away. It will take a week, $30 billion, and we'll enter in batches to ensure secrecy."
Lin Haoran nodded in satisfaction and smiled, "Go ahead. Contact me anytime if anything happens."
After hanging up the phone, Lin Haoran leaned back in his chair.
The fax machine next to me rang; it was Su Zhixue calling to fax over some documents.
Not long after, a detailed analysis report on Mexico's recent market performance slowly emerged from the fax machine.
Lin Haoran picked up the report, walked back to his desk, sat down, and began to read it page by page.
The report was very detailed, including a chart of the peso exchange rate, a curve of stock market index fluctuations, a timetable for foreign debt maturities, the latest data on oil export revenues, and analysis and commentary on the Mexican market from major Wall Street institutions.
Each page is densely covered with data and charts.
Lin Haoran looked at it very carefully.
Although he knew the course of history, these specific data and real-time market dynamics remained important bases for his decision-making.
The report shows that the peso has risen by 12% in the past three days, essentially returning to pre-Soros propaganda levels.
The stock market also saw a remarkable surge, closing higher for eight consecutive days, with trading volume also increasing significantly.
Those high-quality assets that were previously panic-sold are now being snapped up by investors.
Commentary on Wall Street was overwhelmingly optimistic.
"Mexico has passed its most dangerous moment," said an analyst from Goldman Sachs.
Merrill Lynch's view is: "The peso is undervalued and has room for further appreciation."
Morgan Stanley went so far as to advise its clients to "increase their holdings in Mexican assets."
Lin Haoran's smile deepened as he read the comments.
These Wall Street elites are paving a path to wealth for him with their optimism.
When the storm comes, they will be the first to flee, the first to sell off their assets, and the first to lose everything.
And he will calmly reap the rewards while they flee.
Lin Haoran closed the report, placed it on the table, picked up the teacup, took a sip, and found it was already cold.
So he put down the tea, stood up from the chair, walked to the oval glass window, and looked at the extremely clear sky outside.
However, his attention was not on the view outside the building, but on the upcoming battle.
The Mexican debt crisis was inevitable; it was a script already written in history, and it would not be changed by anyone's will.
It remains to be seen how much return he will ultimately receive from this $30 billion investment.
Even he couldn't have predicted this precisely.
In his previous life, he was just an ordinary person who only knew from the news that Mexico had a debt crisis, that the crisis had swept across Latin America, and that countless investors had lost everything.
However, he was unaware of the specific data, fluctuations, and returns.
All he knew was that this was a storm of certainty.
He just needs to place his chips before the storm hits.
As for how much you can earn, that depends on the market's rewards.
The crisis that Soros created earlier can be considered a rehearsal for his Universal Investment Company.
This time, I hope the harvest will be even greater than the first time.
Lin Haoran stood by the window, gazing into the distance, a faint smile playing on his lips.
On his first short position in Mexico, he turned a $15 billion investment into a $32 billion profit, a return of over 200%.
This time, all $30 billion has been invested. If we're lucky, the profit could reach $50 billion, $60 billion, or even more.
Of course, it's also possible that the returns won't be as good as the first time.
After all, this was the first time Soros had been leading the charge, creating a climate of panic and causing an overreaction in the market—a rare opportunity.
The second one was a real debt crisis, but it was also fraught with uncertainty.
But Lin Haoran believes that when a real crisis arrives, the market's reaction will be even more intense than the first time.
Because the first one was just a farce orchestrated by Soros, but this time it's a real debt crisis.
When the Mexican government announces its inability to repay its maturing foreign debt, the market panic will be ten or even a hundred times stronger than the panic created by Soros.
Those investors who are now full of confidence, and those institutions that think the crisis is over, will frantically sell off their shares like startled birds.
And he, who planned ahead, will once again reap the rewards!
The country in question is Mexico, a country far away in North America. He has no emotional connection to this country, which makes it even less likely that he will show mercy!
Strictly speaking, Soros was actually right when he said that Lin Haoran was one of his kind.
After all, Lin Haoran was equally ruthless when it came to reaping Western capital.
He never touted himself as a moral exemplar, nor did he ever hide his desire for wealth.
In this world, kindness and compassion alone are far from enough to achieve great things.
Be ruthless when you need to be ruthless, and be cold-blooded when you need to be cold-blooded.
Of course, he is not exactly the same as Soros.
At least he operates covertly, unlike Soros who is so blatant, and he certainly doesn't put himself in the spotlight like Soros does.
Lin Haoran was well aware that in this world, making a fortune quietly was the best strategy.
People who are too high-profile often don't live long.
Like Soros, if he hadn't been so flamboyant, if he hadn't insisted on dragging Lin Haoran into it, he could have made a fortune peacefully and then escaped unscathed.
But he insisted on courting disaster, wanting to escalate things and gain even more benefits, which were clearly beyond the other party's control.
Then you can't blame anyone else. (End of Chapter)
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