In Hong Kong, we build a global business empire

The year 1981, which is about to end, was indeed a difficult period for many Hong Kong entrepreneurs.

Real estate transactions are sluggish, and housing prices are being propped up by a coalition of real estate companies.

In reality, many secondhand homeowners, in order to sell their houses as quickly as possible, would never trade at the so-called "market price".

Therefore, if you want to sell a house, you either have to keep lowering your expected price or you have no choice but to continue holding it.

This will lead to a widening gap between the prices of new and used homes.

These real estate company owners all know that their efforts to prop up prices won't last long.

But they just weren't willing to give up.

Most real estate companies in Hong Kong are highly leveraged. If housing prices plummet, their cash flow will be like a taut string, facing the huge risk of breaking instantly.

Those once seemingly glorious business empires, amidst the wave of declining housing prices, are like crumbling buildings, where every slight tremor could trigger a collapse.

In order to keep their cash flow running, real estate company owners began to travel around seeking new financing channels.

They could only frequently contact banks and financial institutions, trying to persuade them to continue providing loan support.

However, banks and financial institutions are not naive. They are well aware of the instability of the real estate market and have become extremely cautious about loan applications from real estate companies.

In particular, Heng Sheng Group, now the largest financial group in Hong Kong, already knew that a major real estate crisis was about to erupt, making it even more difficult to obtain loans.

Want a loan? You need collateral!
Moreover, it can only be used as collateral for properties in prime locations, and the mortgage valuation is only half of the market value!

Many small and medium-sized real estate business owners lingered outside banks, only to be repeatedly rejected.

At the same time, some real estate companies have begun to try to recover funds through subsidies and promotions.

They placed large subsidy advertisements in major media outlets and launched various promotional activities in an attempt to attract homebuyers' attention.

Although housing prices may seem to be still high, subsidies have actually indirectly reduced prices.

However, the market did not buy it.

Seeing the continued downward trend in housing prices, homebuyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, hoping that prices will drop further.

The promotional activities of real estate companies did not achieve the expected results, but instead further exacerbated the panic in the market.

That's what Hong Kong is like now.

The crisis has not yet truly erupted, but it has already pushed many real estate developers to the brink of collapse.

Once it erupts, the scene could be like a devastating tsunami, instantly plunging the entire Hong Kong real estate industry into an abyss of no return.

However, despite being the owner of the real estate giant Landmark Group, Lin Haoran had no such worries at all.

While other real estate tycoons were struggling with their company's finances, Lin Haoran continued his extravagant lifestyle, even anticipating a crisis in Hong Kong's real estate market.

Today, I stayed home with Guo Xiaohan until the afternoon, and even had lunch with her at a Western restaurant before going to the company at 5 pm.

After dropping Liu Xiaoli off at her villa in the Mid-Levels of Wan Chai, Lin Haoran did not rush back to his villa on Shi Xun Road. Instead, he returned to Central and spent more than an hour shopping with Guan Jiahui before dropping her off at her villa on Old Peak Road.

There's no way around it; he has three women in Hong Kong, so he still needs to be a master of time management for holidays like Christmas.

After dropping Guan Jiahui off, Lin Haoran spent half an hour with her in the villa before finally taking the Rolls-Royce back to the Shi Xun Road villa.

Before we knew it, the moon over Taiwan was already high in the sky, and Hong Kong was plunged into the deep of night.

Although the neon lights of Lan Kwai Fong still flicker, adorning the night with dazzling colors, the hustle and bustle is now isolated from most citizens.

Meanwhile, in the United States, far away in the Western Hemisphere, it was already broad daylight.

In a high-rise commercial building on Park Avenue in Manhattan, New York.

This is the headquarters of Forbes, a well-known American magazine company.

Although it's Christmas Day, Forbes executives aren't in the mood for a holiday; instead, they've gathered in the executive conference room to discuss important matters.

The reason is simple: since the launch of the Hong Kong Rich List by MediaCorp, especially after the high-profile global launch and the huge advertisement in Times Square, Forbes' long-planned "400 Richest Americans" list and their authoritative position as the global wealth delimiter have faced unprecedented challenges and threats.

Their meticulously planned launch of the "world's first modern rich list," scheduled to be unveiled next March, has been snatched away by an obscure media company from the East. This is not only a commercial competition but also a heavy blow to their decades-long reputation in the industry.

What made them even more uneasy was that, in the past few days, due to the continuous decline in US stocks, Lin Haoran's influence in the United States had suddenly surged.

This made Forbes executives even more anxious.

The meeting room was filled with smoke, a mixture of cigar smoke and anxiety.

Previously, they had made ample preparations and planned to release the article "The Mystery of Lin Haoran's Wealth: The Huge Gap Between the Known and the Unknown" globally at a later time, determined to expose Lin Haoran's "exaggerated" wealth.

However, the continued decline in US stocks, and Lin Haoran's meteoric rise during the stock market crash, completely disrupted Forbes' top management's targeted strategy for Oriental Media Group.

On the conference table in front of the executives, there was a document showing summaries of recent reports about Lin Haoran from major American financial media outlets.

The Wall Street Journal: "A Prophet's Triumph: Lin Haoran's Pessimistic View of US Stocks Unexpectedly Comes True, Market Reassesses Eastern Wisdom."

The New York Times: "From ridicule to adoration: How an Eastern investor silenced Wall Street."

The Los Angeles Times: "Market validates 'Prophet Lin'? The new idol of US stock investors amid the crash."

These headlines, like sharp needles, pierced the hearts of every Forbes executive.

What made it even more embarrassing for them was that these media outlets included Forbes' long-time competitors, such as Fortune and BusinessWeek.

“Look at these opportunists!” Richard Ellis waved a stack of printed documents in his hand, his face ashen. “Just a week ago, they were still with us questioning whether Lin Haoran’s $113 billion fortune was a boast, and mocking him as an ‘Oriental clown’!”
And now? Just because he guessed correctly about a US stock market downturn—which was purely by sheer luck—they can't wait to haile him as a 'prophet' and an 'idol'!
Where is the integrity of the media? Where is their professional judgment?

“It wasn’t a guess.” James Crocker, the head of the investigation, said with a grim face, though he was reluctant to admit it, he had to face reality.

“We have reviewed his remarks. At MIT, his analysis of corporate profit pressure, market valuation bubbles, and risk accumulation in a high-interest-rate environment was quite logically sound.”

At the time, we all thought he was ignoring the 'resilience' and innovative vitality of the US economy, but as it turns out, at least in the short term, the market did indeed follow the risk path he pointed out.

This wasn't luck; it was judgment based on a certain level of insight.

“So what?” Richard Ellis retorted excitedly. “Can a single correct market judgment offset the potentially huge inflated figures in his wealth data?”

Does that prove his "Eastern Rich List" is authoritative? Those idiots on Wall Street are just greedy! They fawn over anyone who makes money!

“Richard, calm down,” Malcolm Forbes finally spoke.

"James is right. We cannot deny Lin Haoran's keen insight into the US stock market. The topic of our discussion today is whether or not we should launch a counterattack against Oriental Media Group as planned before."
After all, it's already December 25th. If they don't act now, they'll release their 'Singapore Rich List' in a few days, and it might have an even bigger impact!

As soon as Malcolm Forbes finished speaking, the room fell silent.

Lin Haoran's influence in the United States soared after he predicted the decline in US stocks. The other party's "Singapore Rich List" was about to be released on January 1, 1982, just a few days later, which put them in a very difficult position.

They made many preparations to deal with Oriental Media Group and reclaim their rightful glory.

But at this moment, these preparations appear hesitant and passive in the face of "Lin the Prophet's" aura and the other side's aggressive expansion pace.

"Fight back? Of course we must fight back!" Richard Ellis was the first to break the silence. He stood up abruptly, his voice trembling slightly with excitement.

"Are we just going to stand by and watch this young man from the East put up ads in Times Square and then go to Singapore to publish some kind of rich list, gradually eroding the territory and reputation that should belong to us?"
Malcolm, we can't hesitate any longer! They've already beaten us to the punch with our 'rich list' plan. If they start to control the wealth discourse in Singapore, Malaya, and the whole of Southeast Asia with this kind of list, what global influence will the Forbes Rich List have in the future?

We're stuck with this tiny piece of land in North America! And who knows, they might just show up on our turf at any time and create a 'Rich Americans List'!

He pointed to the media reports on the table: "Look at these! One successful prediction of the US stock market and they all turned against it!"

If we don't take decisive action now to take him and his list down, and he successfully releases his "Singapore Rich List" again, coupled with the further spread of his "miracle" in the US stock market, who will care when we release the "US 400" next March?
People will just say that Forbes is imitating the 'Eastern Rich List' model, and it's a step behind! We will completely become followers instead of definers!" James Kroc, however, seemed more cautious.

He pushed up his glasses and looked at Malcolm Forbes: "Boss, Richard's concerns are valid, but we must consider the cost and effect of a counterattack."

Our previously prepared "wealth data skepticism" plan has lost much of its impact given Lin Haoran's soaring reputation due to his successful predictions of the US stock market.

Forcing its release could backfire, drawing criticism from the other side and public opinion. They might accuse us of jealousy and suppressing a rising star, or even help him portray himself as more tragic and sympathetic, thus boosting his influence.

He pulled up another document, an intelligence summary just sent by the Asian branch: "Moreover, according to our latest information, Lin Haoran seems to have been prepared for our possible attack."

Within his MediaCorp, it is highly likely that a set of counter-arguments has already been prepared, targeting some of the Western billionaires on our list. The methods are probably similar to those we used when we questioned him, employing anonymous sources, digging up historical controversies, questioning the 'original sin' of the source of wealth, and the 'double standards' of the current tax structure.

If we and he get bogged down in this mess of mutual shaming, it will severely damage Forbes’ long-established image of 'relative objectivity and wealth recording'.

The public will get tired of it and will question the fairness of our rankings.

“Are we just going to do nothing and wait to die?” Richard Ellis glared at James.

“Of course not,” Malcolm Forbes said slowly. “James has considered everything very carefully. The plan to directly attack the wealth data does indeed increase the risk.”

But Richard is right, we must act, and quickly and decisively, to at least disrupt his rhythm and weaken his momentum before his Singapore press conference.”

His gaze swept over the crowd, finally landing on the silent strategic advisor, Peterson: "Peterson, what do you think?"

Peterson is an elderly man with gray hair and sharp eyes who has provided crisis public relations and competitive strategy consulting for many media giants.

He spoke slowly, his voice low and clear: "Gentlemen, we are caught in a typical competitive dilemma. The other side has occupied a temporary moral and prestige high ground by using the unexpected method of releasing the rich list first and the undeniable success of predicting the recent decline in US stocks."

Directly attacking their core claims, especially when they are at the height of their influence, can easily backfire; attacking their external aspects, such as their ranking methodology or regional biases, may be ineffective.

He paused, picked up a pen, and drew two circles on the whiteboard, one labeled "Lin/Oriental Media" and the other "Forbes".

"The current situation is that the other side scores points on the 'innovation' of the first modern rich list and the 'short-term validation' of US stock market predictions."

Our strengths lie in our historical authority, global influence, and in-depth analytical capabilities.

In a head-on confrontation, we are temporarily at a disadvantage in the areas chosen by the enemy, such as the release of their rich list and market forecasts.

"So what's your suggestion?" Malcolm pressed.

“Change the battleground,” Peterson said decisively. “Don’t get entangled with him on the ‘rich list’ itself or the ‘authenticity of personal wealth’.”

That was exactly in line with his rhythm; he kept releasing new lists and creating buzz.
He used his success in the US stock market to prove his personal abilities, shifting the focus away from scrutinizing the details of wealth.

We need to bring the battleground back to the area we excel at, and that is also the most fundamental aspect of the business world: corporate value and long-term risk.

Next to the circle of "Lin and Oriental Media", he drew a larger circle, labeled "Hong Kong Real Estate, Financial Systemic Risk", and then connected the two closely with an arrow.

"According to the information we have, Hong Kong's economy, especially its real estate and financial systems, is on the verge of collapse."

This is the true foundation of Lin Haoran's business empire, and also the macro-risk that he cannot resolve with his personal predictive abilities.

Our next major report should not question whether Lin Haoran's wealth is really that much, but should be titled "The Cracks Behind the Prosperity: Hong Kong's Real Estate Bubble and the Weaknesses of Asia's New Elite".

Or to put it more directly, "The Prophet's Blind Spot: Lin Haoran's Business Empire and the Impending Hong Kong Financial Crisis."

Peterson's words made everyone's eyes light up.

"What we need to do is not to audit his personal balance sheet."

Peterson continued, "Instead, it presents a detailed and convincing picture of Hong Kong's economic crisis to global readers from the perspective of a senior economic observer for Forbes."

Let the data speak for itself: How much has real estate transaction volume shrunk? How severe is the price inversion? What is the average debt ratio of developers? How large is the banking system's exposure to real estate risks? What is the loan composition and potential bad debt risk of Hengsheng Group, Lin Haoran's financial arm?

“Then, within this grand picture of crisis,” Peterson emphasized Lin Haoran’s name with his pen, “we will analyze Lin Haoran and his Landmark Group, Wanqing Group, and Hengsheng Group as the most representative and perhaps the most deeply affected core cases in this impending storm.”

We can ask ourselves: when the bubble bursts, how will the assets of these vast empires be devalued? How will high leverage backfire? How will cash flow dry up?
We don't need to assert that he will definitely go bankrupt; we just need to objectively demonstrate that under such systemic risks, any company involved, no matter how brilliant its leader, will inevitably suffer a severe blow.

How much of his HK$678 billion paper wealth will have any real value left after this shock?

“Brilliant!” Elizabeth Wu couldn’t help but exclaim. “This is no longer an attack against an individual, but a risk warning based on macroeconomic analysis.”

With a higher level of sophistication, more in line with our Forbes identity, Lin Haoran can defend his wealth figures, but he can hardly defend the fact that a region's economic data is deeply intertwined with the fact that his business is closely tied to it.

Moreover, this perfectly echoes our upcoming 'America 400' report, showcasing American entrepreneurs whose wealth is built on innovation, technology, and a more stable economy, rather than a bursting housing bubble.

Richard Ellis also calmed down and thought: "In this way, even if his prediction of the US stock market is correct, we can say that it is just a small tactical success in the global market, which cannot cover up the strategic risk that his home base is about to collapse."

What kind of true business leader is a 'prophet' who can't even protect his own foundation?

James Kroc added, "We can also collaborate with international rating agencies and economic research institutes, citing their risk reports."

It could even invite renowned scholars or former government officials who have studied Asian economies, such as recently retired U.S. Treasury officials, to comment, thereby increasing its authority.

Let's treat this as a serious economic issue, rather than a gossipy question about wealth.

Moreover, we can indirectly trigger the impending explosion of the Hong Kong real estate crisis. I think this shouldn't be difficult for us, since everyone can see the current state of the Hong Kong real estate industry.

Hong Kong's real estate market today is like a powder keg filled with dry tinder; just one spark could ignite a massive fire.

And we at Forbes can be that Mars.

He paused for a moment, then continued, "We don't need to fabricate any data. Hong Kong real estate transaction volume has halved, prices are inverted, developers are highly leveraged, banks are tightening credit, and Hengsheng Group has almost harsh collateral requirements..."

These are all facts that have already occurred. Our reporting simply connects these scattered, deliberately downplayed risks in a striking, global way, amplifying them for the world to see.

Peterson laughed and said, "Yes, Lin Haoran's base is Hong Kong, and real estate accounts for a large proportion of his businesses. Once the Hong Kong real estate market booms, his wealth myth will be exposed in an instant!"

From being a 'prophet of the East' to a 'trendsetter of the bubble era,' he may even become 'the biggest victim of the real estate collapse!'

Strategic advisor Peterson picked up where James left off, his smile growing wider: "This is the most fatal blow. No matter how strong an individual's abilities are, they cannot withstand the tide of the times."

Based on the information I have, a real estate crisis in Hong Kong is inevitable; it's just a matter of time. Hong Kong's real estate market is currently facing far too many problems!

Lin Haoran may be able to predict the US stock market thousands of miles away, but can he reverse the fate of the land beneath his feet?
When the entire real estate and financial system of Hong Kong begins to collapse, how many intact bricks will remain of the empire he built upon it?

Malcolm Forbes showed his first real smile in days.

The subordinates' strategy precisely identified the key points to leverage.

According to Malcolm Forbes, the "Hong Kong Rich List" released by MediaCorp was deliberately chosen to be published before Forbes' list.

In this way, there is no room for maneuver between Forbes Group and Oriental Media Group; they can even be described as mortal enemies in business.

Seeing Lin Haoran and his companies fall into crisis is exactly what Forbes wants to see!
Most importantly, once this is accomplished, Forbes will also be able to use this opportunity to further enhance its influence!
“That’s the plan!” he decided. “James, you take the lead immediately, gather all our information on Hong Kong’s economy, contact our analysts and informants in Asia. I need the most hardcore data and the most authentic case studies.”

Richard, you are responsible for contacting external experts and organizations to endorse our reporting.

Elizabeth, you coordinate with the Asia branch to ensure our information channels are open and to monitor potential reactions in Hong Kong.

He glanced at the calendar and said seriously, "Time is of the essence. I need to see the detailed outline and core data of the special report within forty-eight hours."

At the latest by December 28th, the preview for our next magazine issue will begin to send strong signals about the 'economic risks in Hong Kong'.

The goal was to successfully shift global financial media attention from 'Lin Haoran's miraculous success in the US stock market' and 'Singapore's rich list' to 'the Hong Kong economic crisis and its potentially devastating impact on the Lin family empire' before Oriental Media Group's Singapore press conference!

"We want the world to see," Malcolm Forbes said firmly, "what is fleeting speculative success, and what is a true business media leader based on deep industry insights and risk warnings."

In this battle, we will reclaim the right to define 'risk' and 'value'! (End of Chapter)