In Hong Kong, we build a global business empire

Chapter 814 Doubts? Time will tell!
As a time traveler, Lin Haoran personally experienced the technological development of the next few decades, so preparing a speech on the technological revolution was indeed a piece of cake for him.

This was something that came out of nowhere.

He doesn't need to bury himself in massive amounts of data and repeatedly reason and prove his points like others do.

Simply describe the clear vision of the future in your mind using language that aligns with your current understanding.

This knowledge reserve from the future forms a unique "dimensional reduction attack," making him appear exceptionally calm and composed when preparing for his speech.

Just as Lin Haoran was calmly preparing in his hotel suite, MIT Sloan School of Management officially confirmed the open class schedule, which was scheduled for 10:00 a.m. the following morning in the school's largest auditorium.

The news quickly spread throughout the Sloan School of Management and even the entire MIT.

Almost simultaneously, news of his acceptance of MIT's invitation spread like wildfire, quickly reaching Harvard University, just across the river.

In the office of the Dean of Harvard Business School, Professor Charles Williams had just finished a meeting and was resting with his temples when his assistant brought him the news that instantly dispelled his drowsiness.

"Dean, we've just confirmed that Mr. Lin Haoran has accepted the invitation from MIT Sloan School of Management to give a public lecture in their auditorium tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM." The assistant's voice was tinged with caution; he knew how much importance the dean placed on this matter today.

"What?! Tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.? At MIT?" Dean Charles jumped to his feet, his face filled with astonishment. "How could they... how could they have acted so quickly?"

“We were only a few minutes slow, just a few minutes!” He sat down again, his tone filled with resentment and regret. “Such a great opportunity to have in-depth exchanges with business geniuses of similar age to the students, the inspirational effect of that, alas, MIT beat us to it!”

The regret expressed by Harvard only serves to highlight Lin Haoran's immense influence and popularity at this moment.

Before we knew it, a night had passed, and it was the morning of November 27th.

The news of Lin Haoran's lecture at MIT spread like wildfire last night, causing a sensation not only on campus but also attracting the attention of several well-known local media outlets in Boston.

Therefore, this morning, reporters from local mainstream media such as The Boston Globe, The Boston Post, and The Boston Gazette rushed to MIT upon hearing the news.

Out of respect for Lin Haoran's desire to keep a low profile, the school initially tried to politely decline media access.

But after consulting Lin Hao, he calmly replied: "Since it is an open class, it is fine to let media friends attend, as long as it does not affect the class order."

For Lin Haoran, the presence of these media outlets, as long as they do not interfere with his speech, can actually help spread some of his views and expand his influence, so why not?
Fame and fortune, fame comes before fortune, and influence itself is a valuable asset.

Lin Haoran naturally understood this principle.

So, around 9 a.m., a large number of eagerly awaiting students and some media reporters had already gathered outside the auditorium designated by the MIT Sloan School of Management.

The auditorium was packed to capacity. Not only were almost all the faculty and students from the Sloan School of Management present, but students from many other schools also skipped classes to come and witness the charisma of this legendary young business genius and hear his insights into the future.

The scene was bustling with noise and the atmosphere was exceptionally lively.

At 10:00 a.m. sharp, Lin Haoran, accompanied by the dean of the Sloan School of Management, entered the auditorium on time.

He was still wearing that custom-made dark blue suit, exuding composure, showing no nervousness whatsoever in the face of the sea of ​​people and the flashing cameras below the stage.

After the dean gave a brief but enthusiastic introduction, Lin Haoran stood in the center of the podium.

His gaze swept across the entire hall, and he spoke calmly, his voice clearly transmitted through the microphone to every corner of the auditorium.

"Good morning, students, professors, and friends from the media. It is an honor to be invited by the Dean of the MIT Sloan School of Management to stand here and communicate with you."

Today, I would like to discuss with you the topic of 'Technological Revolution and New Opportunities of Globalization'.

He didn't exchange many pleasantries and went straight to the point.

As his speech progressed, he began to depict magnificent scenes that would seem like common sense in the future, but were nothing short of a fantasy in 1981:
"In the near future, personal computers will no longer be laboratory treasures or toys for the rich; they will become a necessity for every ordinary family, just like televisions."

"A global network called the 'Internet' will be built, which will completely break down geographical barriers, make the transmission of information instant and free, and profoundly change the way we acquire knowledge, communicate, and even conduct business."

"In the future, phones will be able to fit in your pocket, and mobile communication networks will gradually cover major cities around the world, allowing people to stay connected with the outside world anytime, anywhere..."

These bold predictions caused the audience to fall into deep thought at times and to murmur in amazement at others.

Many students stared wide-eyed, their faces filled with disbelief, yet they were also drawn in by Lin Haoran's confident tone and seemingly rigorous logic.

Although he could not reveal the technical details, he made inferences from the perspectives of demand, social development, and commercial value, making these predictions seem more than just wishful thinking.

When he asserted that these changes "will be realized one by one in the next ten to twenty years," the entire audience erupted in uproar.

Although MIT itself conducts cutting-edge research in these fields, it is still unimaginable to most people that such technology can be made available to every household in such a short period of time.

However, it is undeniable that Lin Haoran's descriptions opened a window for everyone to glimpse the future, stirring people's hearts and filling them with longing for the coming technological era.

“I know this sounds incredible,” Lin Haoran said with a smile, “but think back to twenty years ago, no one could have imagined that communication tools could be carried around and used to make and receive calls. But now, Hong Kong in the Far East has already commercialized mobile communication.”

The pace of innovation is accelerating, and future changes will come faster than we imagine.

He aptly cited examples of mobile communication commercialization that had already occurred in Hong Kong, giving a tangible basis to what seemed like a distant prediction and prompting deeper reflection from the audience.

Hong Kong became the world's first city to commercialize mobile communications, a feat personally spearheaded by Lin Haoran.

Otherwise, under normal circumstances, mobile communication would not have been officially commercialized until at least 1983.

With Lin Haoran's push, this timeframe was brought forward by a full two years.

Therefore, when Hong Kong officially announced the commercialization of mobile communications to the world, it naturally shocked the world, including the United States.

Many Americans are surprised and somewhat disheartened that the technology was invented in the United States, and that the first city to commercialize mobile communication was not an American city, but a city in the Far East.

At this moment, when Lin Haoran casually mentioned this example on the MIT podium, many teachers and students who knew about the matter showed complicated expressions.

They then realized that this young business tycoon was not only a visionary of the future, but also a key driver in the commercialization of cutting-edge technologies.

“The popularization of technology often exceeds our most optimistic expectations,” Lin Haoran continued calmly. “The successful commercialization of mobile communications in Hong Kong is just the beginning.”

I can foresee that within two years, similar mobile communication networks will be established in major cities around the world, such as New York, London, Tokyo, Chicago, Boston, and Los Angeles.

Putting aside other things, Chicago, where Motorola's headquarters are located, is currently undergoing testing, and it is believed that within six months, Chicago will become the second city in the world to achieve mobile communication.

It is foreseeable that mobile communication devices, like computers, will be a key area of ​​development in the future technology industry, and the speed of technological progress will be much faster than you imagine.

The excellent speech ended amidst prolonged and enthusiastic applause from the audience.

Next came the Q&A session with the students.

The first few questions revolved around technological trends and investment logic, which Lin Haoran handled with ease, earning rounds of applause for his foresight and wisdom.

However, soon a student from the Sloan School of Management raised a pointed question that went beyond the realm of technology, a question that is of great concern to many Americans today.

"Mr. Lin, thank you for your insightful sharing. My question is, what is your view on the series of economic policies implemented by President Reagan? Based on these policies, do you believe that the US stock market will usher in a major bull market?"

Can the US economy seize this opportunity to escape the "stagflation" dilemma of severe inflation and economic stagnation?

Upon hearing this question, many students in the audience smiled knowingly.

In today's mainstream view, President Reagan's tax cuts and deregulation policies are aimed at revitalizing the US economy, and the positive stock market outlook is almost a consensus. They believe the answer to this question is obvious and that there is no need to ask it.

The student asked this question simply to get concrete confirmation from this business genius to satisfy his own expectations.

However, Lin Haoran's answer froze everyone's smiles on their faces.

He paused for a moment, his face still composed, but his tone was exceptionally clear and certain: "Thank you for your question. Regarding President Reagan's economic policies and the future trend of the US stock market, my views may differ from the current mainstream optimism."

He paused, looked around the room, saw many doubtful and dismissive glances, and continued, "I believe that after a possible short-term surge, the US stock market will not immediately embark on a long-term bull market. On the contrary, it is likely to face a period of adjustment that cannot be ignored, and may even experience a significant decline."

These words immediately caused an uproar in the audience!
"How is this possible?" Whispers instantly arose from the audience, and many students' faces were filled with disbelief.

Wall Street institutions and many well-known economists are optimistic about the market outlook. How could this business genius, who was just describing a bright future for technology, put forward such a pessimistic and "inappropriate" view?

Ignoring the commotion, Lin Haoran calmly explained his reasons, the core of which was largely the same as what he had said at the Citibank board meeting: the oppressive effect of a high-interest-rate environment on businesses, the lag in the effectiveness of policies, and the need for the market itself to digest previous price increases and accumulated risks. However, his explanation failed to convince all the listeners.

As soon as he finished speaking, boos and skeptical whispers immediately arose from the audience.

Some students who had previously admired him now frowned, feeling that his remarks were simply alarmist, and even began to doubt whether his previous predictions about technology were also unreliable.

The atmosphere at the scene, which had previously been unanimously positive, suddenly became somewhat subtle and divided.

Despite the boos and questioning looks from some students in the audience, Lin Haoran's expression remained unchanged, as calm as still water.

He slightly raised his hand to signal everyone to be quiet, and then continued, "I understand everyone's doubts. The voice of the market is always noisy, and consensus is often dangerous."

My views are based on my analysis and judgment. I'm sharing them for your reference and consideration only; time will tell.

His tone was so calm and certain, as if he were stating a given fact, that it actually silenced some of the boos.

He knew that the course of history would not change because of his prediction, and that the US stock market would indeed experience a correction in the early 80s, which would last for seven or eight months.

His courage to utter these "unpleasant words" stemmed from this very understanding.

Whether these students believe it or not at this moment has no impact on him.

He knew very well that when the stock market did indeed fall as he predicted, those present today would recall this moment and truly recognize the accuracy of his judgment.

Lin Haoran's answer caught the attention of the reporters present, who quickly jotted down notes and snapped away.

They astutely realized that the clash between this young business prodigy and the mainstream views of the traditional financial world was far more newsworthy than a simple technology outlook.

As journalists, they naturally know that many mainstream media outlets have interviewed numerous economic experts and even business tycoons, and without exception, they all hold a fairly optimistic view of Reagan's economic policies, believing them to be a powerful stimulant to save the American economy.

Many financial gurus have even predicted that a true bull market in US stocks will arrive in the near future, with a new wave of surges, urging investors to make preparations in advance for the upcoming stock market feast.

Lin Haoran, a young man from the East who rose rapidly through multiple investments in just three years, openly voiced a completely different opinion at an academic mecca like MIT. This in itself is a highly controversial and newsworthy event!

The Q&A session ended in this somewhat controversial atmosphere.

Despite the final question causing some ripples, the entire open class undoubtedly left a very deep impression on all attendees.

Just as Lin Haoran was about to step down from the podium, a young man with a sharp and capable demeanor wearing gold-rimmed glasses stood up and took the microphone handed to him by a staff member.

He came from the Economics Department of Harvard University and had specifically crossed the river to come; his questions were more direct and challenging:
"Mr. Lin, please wait a moment. I am Mike from the Department of Economics at Harvard University. I got your autograph yesterday at Harvard Garden. I don't know if you remember. Your prediction just now was very bold, but as we all know, successful investing requires turning judgment into action."

Since you are so pessimistic about the short-term trend of US stocks, then may I ask whether your Global Investment Company, or you personally, will carry out any actual short-selling operations based on this?

Or is this merely a 'viewpoint' that you've only expressed verbally?

This question was extremely sharp, directly putting Lin Haoran on the defensive. It was intended to test whether his words and actions were consistent, and it also represented the common question of many students with finance and economics backgrounds in the audience.

Harvard University and MIT are both among the top universities in the United States. The two schools are not only competitors, but also frequently collaborate academically.

In addition, the two schools are only about 2 miles apart as the crow flies, so students interact very closely. It is not surprising that Harvard students come to MIT.

While Huanyu Investment Company's various investments are conducted covertly, and the specific companies invested in are not disclosed, it is no secret that it has a subsidiary, Huanyu Investment Company, that specializes in investing in stocks, and this has already been reported by the media.

Therefore, Lin Haoran was not surprised that the boy could name Huanyu Investment Company.

The room fell silent again, everyone eager to see how Lin Haoran would respond to this almost provocative question.

Looking at the Harvard student, Lin Haoran was not annoyed at all; instead, a smile of appreciation appeared on his lips.

“Very good question.” He nodded approvingly, then calmly replied, “First of all, I must clarify that investing is a complex systemic project, not a simple either/or situation.”

Being bearish on the market doesn't necessarily mean you have to short the index on a large scale and with a clear stance. Short selling is inherently very risky, especially when going against the trend; you can easily be hurt by irrational market fluctuations.

Lin Haoran changed the subject and continued, "As for how Huanyu Investment Company will invest next, I'm sorry, that's a trade secret, and I cannot disclose specific details."

But I can share our investment philosophy: remain vigilant when the market is overheated, and seek opportunities when the market is in panic. True value investors need not only the foresight to anticipate risks, but also the ability to identify true value during crises.

He paused, his gaze sweeping across the room before settling on the Harvard student who had asked the question, and continued, "So, to answer your question: we will not engage in reckless, strategic short selling to prove a point."

However, we will certainly adopt a prudent defensive strategy based on our assessment of the risks, protect our capital, and seek out any opportunities that may arise from the crisis.

This is the professional way of asset management. As for me personally, Huanyu Investment Company represents me, and I will not make any further investments.

This response not only avoids the simplistic binary trap of "whether to short sell," but also clearly articulates a mature, rigorous, and actionable investment risk control logic.

He was not swayed by his emotions, nor did he make any boastful promises to save face, nor did he reveal the investment plans of Huanyu Investment Company.

These are secrets to him!

Lin Haoran's cautious and reserved answer, while demonstrating the professionalism of a mature investor, also gave many people present something to talk about.

The Harvard student named Mike was clearly not entirely satisfied with the answer. He raised his eyebrows slightly and asked, "So Mr. Lin means that your investment decisions will be consistent with your public predictions, but the specific operations are a trade secret and cannot be disclosed?"

“That’s one way to understand it,” Lin Haoran nodded calmly. “Investing is not a black-and-white gamble, but an art of balancing risk and return.”

A murmur arose from the audience.

Some finance students exchanged meaningful glances, clearly disapproving of Lin Haoran's "all talk and no action" attitude.

"He makes a lot of sense," a blond boy in the back whispered to his companion, "but who knows if he'll actually dare to follow his predictions?"

“Exactly,” his companion chimed in. “Anyone can predict a market downturn, but actually investing real money is another matter entirely.”

Although the discussions were not loud, they could still be clearly heard in the quiet auditorium.

Lin Haoran heard everything clearly, but he just smiled slightly and did not argue.

He knew that in the investment world, actions always speak louder than words.

Huanyu Investment Company has already begun to invest in some companies, even using leverage.

However, these operations are all trade secrets and could never be disclosed in public.

Believe it or not, time will tell.

He didn't expect his remarks to convince everyone immediately.

Truth is often held by a minority, and time will prove the foresight of these few. The opportunity has been given to them, and it is hoped that they will not regret it in the future.

The Q&A session ended in this delicate atmosphere.

Although Lin Haoran's answer failed to completely dispel everyone's doubts, his composure and confidence still left a deep impression on everyone present.

After the open lecture, Lin Haoran walked out of the auditorium accompanied by the dean of the Sloan School of Management.

The dean said to him in a low voice, "Mr. Lin, your insights are unique, and it's normal for them to cause some controversy. Truth often needs time to be verified."

"So, Dean, what's your opinion?" Lin Haoran asked casually with a smile.

“While I do not agree with Mr. Lin’s view, I respect your judgment,” the dean said frankly. “After all, the market is always full of uncertainty, and different voices constitute the complete market picture.”

The person who can serve as the dean of the Sloan School of Management is naturally an industry leader in the economic field, with his own unique insights into the market.

He continued, "However, Mr. Lin, I must remind you that it is always wise to remain humble in the face of the market. History is full of examples of intelligent people paying the price for being overconfident."

Lin Haoran nodded slightly: "Thank you for the reminder, Dean. I always believe that the market is always right. The only thing we can do is try our best to understand and adapt to it."

(End of this chapter)