Rebirth 08: Rise from copycat phones

Chapter 551 Zhiyun Group's Toothpaste Suction

In December, various subsidiaries of Zhiyun Group successively released a number of products, many of which, although not of much concern to the general public, had a significant impact.

On December 5th, Zhiyun Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Zhiyun Group, officially released its new generation W1106 chip and announced that it would begin large-scale external supply in January.

Vcool Electronics and other mobile phone manufacturers are expected to release new mobile phones equipped with this chip starting in February or March next year, marking the beginning of the seven-nanometer era for these manufacturers' mobile phones.

The W1106 is a mobile SoC that uses a 7-nanometer process, making it the fourth mobile SoC chip to use a 7-nanometer process, following the Zhiyun S-series chips and the Apple A-series chips.

Prior to this, Qualcomm also released their first 7-nanometer process chip in November, but mass production and supply will not begin until next spring.

In addition, Huawei's self-developed 7-nanometer process chip has already completed tape-out at Zhiyun Microelectronics and is about to enter the mass production stage. It is estimated that it will be released and used next spring.

Looking at these mobile phone SOC chips from various semiconductor manufacturers, it's foreseeable that starting next spring, the global high-end mobile phone market will enter the seven-nanometer era on a large scale!

This is because the three semiconductor manufacturing plants, namely Zhiyun Microelectronics, TSMC, and Fourstar, have successively entered the 7-nanometer era and have more 7-nanometer process capacity.

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In addition to releasing its new generation W1106 chip, Zhuyun Semiconductor also launched several other new chips at the press conference!

This includes the new generation PX6 general-purpose terminal computing chip, which will likely be used in new models from major automakers and in other fields such as robotics.

The LC2 lightweight terminal computing chip is a lightweight, low-power computing chip that will be used in various lightweight portable smart terminal devices equipped with artificial intelligence, such as AI glasses.

Then there are server GPU chips, which are not of much concern to the average person, but are of great interest to some high-tech manufacturers.

At the press conference, Zhuyun Semiconductor launched a new APO4600S graphics card and an APO4500M 64GB graphics card!
The APO4500M/64GB graphics card is a larger capacity version of the simple APO4500M graphics card. Because it uses the mature BGA packaging mode, the price is not expensive. The 64GB version can be bought for just over 80,000 yuan.

Most importantly, the supply of this graphics card will be very plentiful, and even individual enthusiasts can purchase it directly from the official website's retail channels.

The new APO4600S graphics card is a product that utilizes the GPU core and other technologies of the discontinued APO4600 graphics card, and is launched to the market after adopting 2.5D packaging technology.

In short, it's a downgraded version of the APO4600 graphics card's packaging technology, replacing 3D packaging with 2.5D packaging.

因此APO4600S显卡投产的同时，APO4500显卡80GB版本也将会全面停产……以腾出足够的2.5D先进封装产能来生产APO4600S显卡。

However, even with the downgraded packaging technology, the APO4600S graphics card is still not cheap, costing 140,000 yuan, which is about the same price as the previous APO4600 graphics card.

The price is the same, but the performance has indeed been significantly reduced.

The launch of these two new graphics cards once again reveals to the outside world the serious problems that Zhuyun Group faces in advanced packaging capacity...

Needless to say, 3D packaging is now at 100% capacity utilization, and the vast majority of that capacity is being used to produce AI6000/APO5000 graphics cards. The APO4600 graphics card, which originally used 3D packaging, has been discontinued.

The current 3D packaging capacity is used to produce APO5000 graphics cards. These cards are mainly used by Zhiyun Group and its sister companies and institutional clients to build computing centers, and are also provided to various enterprise clients for artificial intelligence training and operation.

Several other large domestic internet companies, as well as overseas companies such as Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Apple, have ordered large quantities of this graphics card.

Because of the large backlog of orders, the waiting time for APO5000 graphics cards has reached two years... It's simply impossible to buy them at the original price on the market.

In the Huaqiang South Market, some of the most resourceful graphics card dealers charge 300,000 RMB or more for APO5000 graphics cards, with some unscrupulous dealers even selling them for 350,000 RMB, resulting in extremely high markups.

The 2.5D packaging process has a slightly larger production capacity compared to the 3D packaging process. A year ago, the 2.5D packaging capacity was actually sufficient, and APO4500 graphics cards using this process were readily available in the retail market.

Many enterprise customers even complain that its performance is insufficient.

However, Zhiyun Group came up with a virtual device... which directly led to an additional market demand of several million computing graphics cards per year.

Then the production capacity for 2.5D packaging also became insufficient...

In this situation, in order to make efficient use of 2.5D packaging capacity, Zhiyun Group simply stopped production of the APO4500 graphics card and produced the APO4600S graphics card instead.

This series of measures left many laymen dumbfounded... When others release new products, they make progress year by year, at most the progress is a little smaller, commonly known as "squeezing toothpaste"!
But Zhiyun Semiconductor is different. When they release new products, they are taking back the toothpaste that was squeezed out in previous years... They are turning back the clock!

Despite the hype surrounding the APO4600S graphics card at the launch event, highlighting its advanced technologies including second-generation high-bandwidth memory and second-generation 2.5D packaging, people aren't stupid...

No matter how much you boast, the old APO4600 graphics card used 3D packaging, while the current APO4600S uses 2.5D packaging. The difference is obvious.

Interestingly, although many people disliked the APO4600S graphics card, thinking it was a rip-off, they couldn't buy the APO5000 graphics card because it was impossible to buy it, and the APO4600 graphics card had been discontinued long ago, making it even more unavailable.

In the end, having no other choice, I was prepared to reluctantly buy it and use it. When I inquired about its availability, the sales staff from Zhiyun Group politely said: "Dear customer, I'm sorry, this graphics card is not in stock!"
If you place an order now, you will have to wait in line to pick up your goods, and the supply next year will be limited. The amount of goods shipped will be arranged according to your company's level of cooperation preference!
If you place an order now with any of Zhiyun Group's strategic partners, such as several large domestic internet companies and top international internet companies like Google, we can arrange to ship around 100,000 units within the next year.

Secondary strategic partners can place orders, and we can arrange to ship 50,000 pieces next year.

As for orders placed by ordinary partner companies, at most we'll ship you 10,000 pieces... no more.

Of course, your company can place more orders, but the excess will not be shipped until the year after next. Moreover, the production capacity will be greater the year after next, and we can give you a quota of 50,000 pieces... Or, you can order 10,000 pieces for next year and then order 50,000 pieces the year after next?
This response left many business leaders feeling helpless!

This world is so crazy!

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At the same time, this phenomenon has also drawn attention from the artificial intelligence industry, the semiconductor industry, and even many ordinary people to the issue of computing power and graphics card production capacity!
Many ordinary people are puzzled!

Zhuyun Group is such a large company, and the news is always talking about its investment in semiconductor factories, with huge investments of hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars... but this is all the production capacity it has?

Many tech bloggers have also popularized the importance and scarcity of Zhiyun Microelectronics' 3D advanced packaging technology and 2.5 advanced packaging technology.

"It's not that Zhiyun Group's advanced packaging technology capacity is too small, but rather that the demand for artificial intelligence chips is too great!"

"Now that the era of artificial intelligence is in full swing, not only large enterprises, but also many small and medium-sized enterprises in traditional manufacturing are playing with artificial intelligence."

"Just the APO graphics cards needed by these companies to train and run AI represent a huge market demand of millions of graphics cards per year!"

"Last year, Zhiyun Group released a virtual device, which has an even greater demand for APO graphics cards!"

"Assuming one virtual machine uses two APO graphics cards, even if we conservatively estimate that Zhiyun Group sells one million virtual machines a year, then the demand for APO graphics cards would be two million!"

"However, many analysts believe that the virtual era has officially begun, and the virtual device market is growing rapidly. The sales volume directly depends on the production capacity of Zhiyun Group. If the supply is sufficient, it is highly likely that the annual sales volume of three million units can be achieved. This is at least the demand for six million graphics cards, and that is the minimum, because many virtual device models use four APO graphics cards!"

"Besides APO graphics cards, many other computing chips also require advanced packaging technology, such as EYQ chips, PX chips, ZY chips, etc. The demand for these chips is also huge, and they will occupy a large amount of 2.5D and even 3D advanced packaging technology capacity!"

“In the global market, the demand for computing chips is currently enormous and is increasing year by year. Although Zhuyun Group’s advanced process packaging capacity is not low, it is far from meeting this demand!”

"It is understood that Zhiyun Microelectronics, a subsidiary of Zhiyun Group, is rapidly expanding its 3D packaging and 2.5D packaging capacity. It is expected that three advanced packaging plants will be put into operation next year, and at least three more advanced packaging plants will be put into operation the year after next!"

"But is that enough?"

"It's not enough!" "Because the demand for all kinds of computing chips keeps rising!"

"In the next three to five years, the shortage of advanced packaging technology capacity will become the norm globally, and APO graphics cards will continue to be in short supply!"

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The insufficient advanced packaging capacity of Zhiyun Group is a real problem that cannot be solved in the short term. However, this does not affect Zhiyun Group's continuous technological advancement!
Shortly after the Zhuyun Semiconductor press conference, news broke that Zhuyun Storage, a subsidiary of the Zhuyun Group, has developed fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory, HBM4, which is expected to be used in the next generation of new computing cards…

However, this news is somewhat inaccurate. While Zhiyun Storage has indeed developed HBM4, it will still take some time before it can be mass-produced and commercialized.

At least the next generation, the APO6000 graphics card which is expected to use a 5-nanometer process, will not be used!

This technology is actually designed to support the more advanced 3-nanometer process graphics cards of the future.

Meanwhile, Zhiyun Microelectronics quietly announced on its official website that it had built a new 3D advanced packaging factory, claiming that it used second-generation 3D packaging technology.

The second-generation 3D packaging technology can provide better packaging technology and better performance for computing chips... This is actually for use with future 3-nanometer computing graphics cards.

Zhuyun Group's technological advancements in the semiconductor field continue to accelerate, from high-performance GPU cores to high-bandwidth memory and more advanced packaging processes, all driving technological progress... The future 3-nanometer process, expected to produce graphics cards codenamed APO7000, will see a significant performance boost!

The semiconductor industry is still quite distant from the average person, and apart from industry insiders and tech enthusiasts, it doesn't attract much attention... Although Zhiyun Group has made huge profits from its semiconductor business for several years in a row, it still doesn't get much attention from the general public.

People are paying more attention to the new generation of robots launched at the Zhiyun Group's winter robot launch event.

Xu Shenxue personally hosted the robot's winter launch event.

They also released several new robot models, all of which use solid-state batteries.

At the same time, the robot series versions were adjusted, completely separating the wheeled and bipedal series!

This has led to the creation of the new entry-level bipedal C series, the mid-to-high-end bipedal B series, the entry-level wheeled M series, the mid-to-high-end wheeled L series, the multi-legged D series, the special operations E series, and a flagship bipedal S series.

It covers almost all major household and work-related usage scenarios!
Among the newly released high-end products is the Yun Robot B6 robot. This bipedal humanoid robot, which targets the high-end market, has seen a significant improvement in performance and is priced from 490,000 yuan.

The L-series, which also targets the mid-to-high-end market with its wheeled platform, includes the Yun Robot L7, which starts at 320,000 yuan.

However, the sales volume of these two products will not be very high. The robots that Zhiyun really sells in large quantities are the entry-level products.

Among them, the new generation of entry-level bipedal robots, the C series, namely Yun Robot C9, is priced from just 180,000.

The previous C-series wheeled robots have been spun off to form the new entry-level M-series wheeled robots, model Yun Robot M10, with prices starting at just 140,000...

These two products are the ones we're planning to sell in large quantities, and their sales are expected to account for more than 85% of the total robot sales!

Furthermore, the M10 also features a cute cartoon robot sub-model, available in orange and warm white. At the launch event, Xu Shenxue referred to it as "Little White" or "Little Yellow"!
These two cartoon-style robots are products of Zhiyun Group's efforts to further develop the concept of robot products as family members. The main purpose is to reduce the sense of distance between robot products and family members by using cute cartoon images, gentler orange-yellow color schemes, and warm white color schemes to bring robots and people closer together.

Modern bipedal and wheeled robots, with their mechanical appearance, may look quite futuristic... but because their appearance is so futuristic and mechanical, they can feel distant!

Especially bipedal humanoid robots, particularly the flagship S series, with their silicone skin. At first glance, they seem like real people, but upon closer inspection, they don't, sometimes making them look very eerie and even reminiscent of robot rebellions... Although Zhiyun Robotics' technology is far from that level, the impression left by science fiction movies is too deep, so many people have this concern.

So, while the S-series silicone-skinned robots were initially shocking, and even their micro-expression system was surprising, some people became fearful after the initial surprise...

Therefore, the designers at Zhiyun Group put a lot of effort into the appearance design of this generation of robots, striving to make them look softer and less distant.

They even launched wheeled robots with special cartoon characters, and abandoned the use of silicone skin versions on the high-end B series, which focuses on mass production.

After all, Zhiyun Group's robots are mainly targeted at the home robot market, and in its advertising, they are described as helpers in life and members of the family.

Therefore, a sense of distance is very important!
These design elements, while seemingly lacking in technological sophistication, are still crucial for product sales!
The real technological advancement lies in the comprehensive application of solid-state batteries, which brings about improvements in safety and a significant increase in battery life.

In addition, there have been many upgrades and improvements in areas such as sensors and chips.

Improved hardware performance can also better support improved robot software performance... The functional models used by the many robots that Zhiyun Group continuously trains also require hardware performance support.

The launch event for the new generation of robots, hosted by Xu Shenxue, has just ended. That same evening, pre-orders were opened in several major global markets, primarily the three core markets of China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe!
In just one day, the new generation of entry-level bipedal C series, entry-level wheeled M series, mid-to-high-end bipedal B series, and mid-to-high-end wheeled L series received a total of 65 pre-orders!
Two of the entry-level products accounted for 80% of orders... and as time goes on, the C series and M series will continue to increase to about 90%!
After all, the mainstream consumer group consists of people who can afford or are willing to spend over 100,000 yuan to buy robots.

In just one day, global pre-orders reached 650,000 units, a sales figure that once again shocked the world... Even based on the cheapest robot price, this sales amount to over 10 billion US dollars.

This has led many analysts to raise their projected sales figures for Zhiyun Robotics.

Some optimistic analysts believe that the widespread application of solid-state batteries has significantly increased people's acceptance of robots and their desire to purchase them.

Next year, Zhiyun Group's robot sales are expected to reach four million units, significantly exceeding the previous forecast of three million units.

Of course, many investors are more concerned about the profitability of the robotics business... You know, when the robots were first released, they were sold at a loss.

In the past year, Zhuyun Group's robotics business turned a profit for the first time, but the profit margin was still relatively small.

Now, they are more concerned about whether, with the market cultivation over the past few years, and the amortization of R&D costs and reduction in production costs brought about by large-scale mass production, the gross profit margin of Zhiyun Group's robotics business has improved, and by how much?

However, Zhiyun Group will not release this data at this time.

When the new generation of robots officially went on sale three days later, some analysis agencies purchased them immediately, disassembled them, analyzed the cost of each component, and tried to estimate the gross profit of Zhiyun Robotics' business, especially the gross profit of the core models C series and M series.

Then, after disassembling and analyzing the data, an American analysis firm released their report!
It was pointed out that the new generation of Zhiyun C-series and M-series robots, apart from the battery being changed from a semi-solid battery to a solid battery, largely retain the components of the old generation in many other core components, and many of these components are even the same as those in the first generation C-series robots.

At the same time, there have been no major changes in the manufacturing process, which means that the production line does not need to be changed much either.

Based on the selling price and component costs, they boldly concluded that the gross profit margin of Zhiyun Group's new generation of C-series and M-series robots has risen to over 25%!
They even believe that, as time goes by, the gross profit margin of their robotics business will further increase by next year.

Twenty-five percent doesn't seem high right now... especially for a company like Zhiyun Group, whose mid-to-end products often have gross profit margins of forty or fifty percent.

APO graphics cards, being a special product, can achieve a gross profit margin of 80% to 90%.

However, for a manufacturing business that ships in large quantities and is not cheap, a gross profit margin of 25% is already considered very high.

This gross profit margin is already comparable to that of Hailan Auto.

Most importantly, Zhiyun Group's robotics business is unlikely to encounter any real competitors so far and for several years to come. This means that Zhiyun Group can continue to sell its old products... On the surface, it upgrades and replaces existing products, but it continues to use older generation parts. This allows it to continuously reduce production costs and amortize R&D expenses.

Therefore, this gross profit margin will gradually increase as sales continue to grow!

Two or three years from now, the gross profit margin of Zhiyun Robotics' robot business may even reach more than 40%!

This means that Zhiyun Group will cultivate a new core business with a huge revenue scale and extremely high gross profit margin!

(End of this chapter)