Gou was a member of the imperial family in the late Ming Dynasty

Chapter 1207 presents the viewpoint
Upon hearing Zhang Xianzhong's words, the members of the General Staff looked displeased, and their expressions towards Zhang Xianzhong were filled with dissatisfaction.

Everyone thought Zhang Xianzhong's view was just a publicity stunt. If Zhang Xianzhong had made this judgment before the Battle of Chuxiong, it wouldn't have been a big problem. After all, Sha Dingzhou was at the height of his power at that time. Mu Tianbo had fled Kunming in a sorry state, and the entire eastern Yunnan had fallen into Sha Dingzhou's hands. Even the local officials of Yunnan, including the governor and the provincial governor, had almost all been captured by Sha Dingzhou. The situation in Yunnan had deteriorated to an unimaginable degree.

Under these circumstances, Zhang Xianzhong felt it was normal for the situation in Yunnan to deteriorate so badly, but after the Battle of Chuxiong, the situation in Yunnan began to improve significantly.

Yang Weizhi led his troops to defend Chuxiong, blocking Sha Dingzhou's westward advance. Mu Tianbo also retreated to Dali and Yongchang. The momentum of the rebels was curbed, and the various local forces in Yunnan gradually stabilized from their initial anxiety.
Now, not only has Yang Weizhi held Chuxiong, but reinforcements from Sichuan and Guizhou have also arrived in Yunnan. We just received news that the White-Spear Army from Sichuan has marched south and captured Xuanwei, while the Guizhou army has taken Fuyuan. Both armies are making good progress, and Qujing Prefecture is practically in their grasp. We expect good news of Qujing's capture to arrive soon.

Once Qujing fell, the situation in Shading Prefecture changed drastically. The Ming army's eastern and western forces sandwiched Shading Prefecture, which was located in Kunming, in the middle. Moreover, Shading Prefecture's stronghold was in Anyuan, which is located south of Kunming. In addition, Shading Prefecture had previously annexed Puming Prefecture's Ami Prefecture. With the two forces adjacent to each other and using this as their base, Shading Prefecture gradually gained control of a large area in southeastern Yunnan.

If Qujing were lost, not only would Kunming be directly on the Ming army's next offensive route, but the Ming army could also take advantage of the situation to directly attack Guangxi Prefecture (not Guangxi) in Yunnan. In this case, Sha Dingzhou would be in danger of having its stronghold destroyed.

"Why do you say that?" Wang Jinwu asked calmly. In truth, he didn't think much of Zhang Xianzhong either, feeling that Zhang Xianzhong's words were a bit excessive. The situation was clearly very favorable, yet Zhang Xianzhong said the situation in Yunnan was still not optimistic. Did he think he was the only smart person in the entire General Staff?

Zhang Xianzhong observed everyone's reactions and felt a pang of regret. He regretted his earlier actions; he shouldn't have contradicted the others, speaking out of turn and getting into an argument. Perhaps it was due to the prolonged peace and the rewards he received for his strategy of digging tunnels to attack cities, but in the past two years, Zhang Xianzhong hadn't been as discreet as before. Besides, he wasn't by nature a low-key person; otherwise, he wouldn't have become a figure alongside Gao Yingxiang among the bandits.

Now that things have come to this point, I have no choice but to speak up. Today, not only have the Grand Secretary and the Second Grand Secretary come to the General Council, but even the Emperor himself has come and immediately asked for my differing opinions.

Facing the unfriendly gazes of the crowd, Zhang Xianzhong took a deep breath, and a surge of courage welled up within him—a courage that seemed to say, "If I die, I'll die; if I don't, I'll live forever!" He thought, "Fine, I'll say it! Who's afraid of who?" To be frank, he was, after all, a councilor of the General Staff, and discussing war was his duty. Even if he was wrong, would the emperor really behead him for it?

"Your Majesty, gentlemen..." Zhang Xianzhong bowed and first greeted Zhu Shenzhui, who was seated in the main seat, and Hong Chengchou and Wang Jinwu, who were seated to his left and right. Then he said, "I believe that the war in Yunnan is not as simple as it seems on the surface. At present, although our Ming army has the upper hand in terms of the battle situation, Sha Dingzhou has been in decline after the Battle of Chuxiong. However, Sha Dingzhou still has tens of thousands of troops, entrenched in Kunming, and occupies the land in eastern Yunnan. As the saying goes, even a cornered beast will fight. Moreover, Sha Dingzhou is far from being a cornered beast."

Zhang Xianzhong continued, "According to the intelligence sent from Yunnan these days, although Yang Weizhi has held Chuxiong, his troops suffered heavy losses in the battle, and the current garrison in Chuxiong is far weaker than before the battle. Although Sha Dingzhou has suffered losses, his main force is still intact and his backbone is not broken. If Sha Dingzhou gathers troops again to attack Chuxiong, Yang Weizhi's side may be in danger."

“General Zhang, what you say is certainly true, but don’t forget that the White-Spear Army from Sichuan and the troops from Guizhou have already arrived in Yunnan. If things go smoothly, Qujing will be captured in a few days. Once Qujing falls, Sha Dingzhou will be attacked from both sides. How can he possibly take Chuxiong with all his might? If he does that, as long as Yang Weizhi holds out for a few days, our troops can take Kunming directly. Does Sha Dingzhou dare to take such a risk?” At this moment, someone stood up and asked Zhang Xianzhong directly.

Zhang Xianzhong turned his head and saw that it was He Renlong. Zhang Xianzhong shook his head slightly and said, "What General He said is true, but it is not the only option for Sha Dingzhou. If I were Sha Dingzhou, I would have three options."

"Firstly!" Zhang Xianzhong held up a finger and said, "Send a force eastward to engage the Sichuan White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army, not seeking victory but only to intercept and harass them. Although the Sichuan White-Spear Army is capable of fighting, its numbers are too small, with only less than three thousand men. As for the Guizhou Army, its combat strength is insufficient; the two forces combined only amount to thirteen thousand men."

“Sha Dingzhou was originally a chieftain of Yunnan, and had been operating in eastern Yunnan for many years. He had a considerable number of troops under his command, and he also had the advantage of a good location. Yunnan is mountainous and densely forested, and malaria is rampant. For foreign troops entering Yunnan, not to mention the road problems, the local climate would be difficult to adapt to. Even the White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army would probably find it difficult.”

"Let their detachment contain the White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army, not seeking to repel the enemy but only to harass and launch surprise attacks. In this way, even if our army is highly capable, it will not be so easy for them to advance smoothly into Kunming. In this way, Sha Dingzhou will have ample time to launch a full-scale attack on Chuxiong. As long as Chuxiong is captured, the western gateway to Yunnan will be opened, and once Chuxiong is captured, Yunnan will be shaken. At that time, whether Sha Dingzhou continues to advance westward or turns east to attack the White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army, it will be a good choice."

"That's just wishful thinking on your part. Does Sha Dingzhou dare to abandon Kunming and divide his forces to attack?" He Renlong retorted. "Why not?" Zhang Xianzhong countered. "If Chuxiong alone can hold off Sha Dingzhou's tens of thousands of troops, does that mean Kunming, with its high walls and thick fortifications, can't stop the White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army? Let's not even talk about how many troops Sha Dingzhou has. Even if dividing his forces can't stop the White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army, at least it can buy some time, right?"

"It won't take long. With Sha Dingzhou's troops being skilled in mountain warfare and taking advantage of the terrain, holding out for half a month or even a month shouldn't be a problem. Even if they fail, they can retreat to Kunming and defend the city. No matter how capable the White-Spear Army is, they probably won't be able to take Kunming. As long as Sha Dingzhou makes good progress in Chuxiong, once he takes Chuxiong, he can turn east and then attack from both sides. At that time, it won't be Sha Dingzhou who will be attacked from both sides, but our Ming army!"

Hearing this, Zhu Shenzhui and the others seemed thoughtful. Hong Chengchou and Wang Jinwu exchanged a glance, realizing that Zhang Xianzhong's assessment did indeed have some merit. Sha Dingzhou's army was considerable. According to news from Yunnan, Sha Dingzhou currently claimed to have 200,000 troops, far surpassing the strength of Wu Bikui during his rebellion. Wu Bikui claimed to have 50,000 troops, but in reality, he only had around 20,000. Sha Dingzhou, however, had a genuine force of 70,000 to 80,000, and after occupying Kunming, he further expanded his forces, likely bringing his total strength to over 100,000.

With so many people, even if they are weak in combat, they are not easy to deal with.

Moreover, just as Zhang Xianzhong said, Yunnan's terrain and climate are different from other places. Sha Dingzhou's men are all locals, and there are also many chieftain soldiers. These troops are not only familiar with the terrain and adapted to the climate, but the Ming army's formation tactics are also affected when fighting in mountainous areas, thus preventing them from exerting their original full combat power.

Furthermore, if Sha Dingzhou does not engage in direct combat but only conducts harassment operations, it will indeed cause great trouble for the Ming army. Even if the Ming army eventually advances to Kunming, it will inevitably suffer losses.

Moreover, Kunming was far superior to Chuxiong. As the capital of Yunnan, Kunming was fortified with high walls and thick fortifications, comparable to major cities in the Central Plains, and even had cannons mounted on its walls. With such a fortified city, and with ample food and weaponry, it would have been extremely difficult for the White-Spear Army and the Guizhou Army to capture it with their limited strength and equipment.

As long as the garrison in Kunming holds fast to the city, the entire situation will change completely once Sha Dingzhou defeats Chuxiong. At that point, whether Sha Dingzhou disregards Kunming and continues westward to directly capture Dali and Yongchang, thus completely resolving the Mu Tianbo issue, or he turns back to join forces with the Kunming garrison to encircle the Baigan Army and the Guizhou Army, the course of the war will be completely transformed.

Thinking of this, Hong Chengchou nodded slightly. He subconsciously put himself in Sha Dingzhou's shoes; if he were Sha Dingzhou, he would probably do the same in this situation. It's better to be proactive than passive. The key is to solve the problem of Chuxiong first. As long as Chuxiong changes hands, Sha Dingzhou's predicament will change directly.

Therefore, if Sha Dingzhou adopts this tactic, the key lies in whether Chuxiong can continue to hold out. Although Yang Weizhi is quite capable and Chuxiong has blocked Sha Dingzhou's westward advance before, Yang Weizhi suffered considerable losses in the last major battle in Chuxiong.

Moreover, Sha Dingzhou was unprepared for a strong attack on Chuxiong at that time, and he was careless in the battle. Now, if Sha Dingzhou attacks Chuxiong again, he will surely learn from the previous lessons. In addition, Chuxiong's troops are insufficient after the last battle, and its city defenses have been weakened. As long as Sha Dingzhou launches a fierce attack at all costs, Chuxiong will probably not be able to hold on.

"Since there's one, there must be a second. Tell me, what is the second?" Wang Jinwu asked.

Zhang Xianzhong continued, "The second strategy is not to attack Chuxiong, but to send a detachment to Chuxiong to create the appearance of a large-scale attack on Chuxiong without actually attacking the city. Then, the main force of Sha Dingzhou will bypass Chuxiong and head straight for Yongchang. The key to the Yunnan war lies with the Duke of Qian. Once the Duke of Qian is in trouble, the situation in Yunnan will deteriorate instantly."

"Currently, there are still many Tusi (chieftains) in various parts of Yunnan who are still observing the situation. On the surface, these Tusi are subjects of our Great Ming Dynasty, but in reality, most of them hold military power and are entrenched in the local area, which is equivalent to a regional warlord. These people have always been two-faced and will not clearly take sides without absolute certainty."

"If Sha Dingzhou were to take a detour and launch a surprise attack on Yongchang, and Yongchang were to fall into his hands, the Duke of Qian would be in Sha Dingzhou's control, and the entire situation would become uncontrollable. At that point, the remaining chieftains would inevitably choose Sha Dingzhou, and the entire Yunnan would fall into his hands. Furthermore, whether the Duke of Qian is captured or killed, our army's morale would plummet. Then Sha Dingzhou could calmly make arrangements, return to Chuxiong first, and then encircle and annihilate our Sichuan and Guizhou reinforcements. As long as we win this battle, Sha Dingzhou will have completely taken over Yunnan, and it will not be so easy for the court to recover Yunnan then."

(End of this chapter)