The Qing Dynasty

Chapter 493 Li Hongzhang's Judgment
The last major defeat of the French army that Yang Shixiang mentioned was the Zhennan Pass victory fifteen years ago.

The French were defeated in the war, which led to the resignation of their Prime Minister, Jean-Jacques Rousseau.

In fact, the "victim" of this Sino-French War was not only Rue Ferry, but also Li Hongzhang, the then Minister of Commerce of Beiyang and Governor-General of Zhili.

Although the battle of Zhennan Pass was won that year, the Battle of Mawei was a disastrous defeat, and Taiwan and the Penghu Islands were also occupied by the French. The two sides could be said to have ended in a draw, and in the eyes of the imperial court, it could even be said that they had failed.

Because the southeast coast is much more important than Vietnam, a vassal state.

In the end, the burden of peace negotiations fell on Li Hongzhang. The imperial court appointed Li Hongzhang to negotiate peace with France. As a result, France returned Taiwan and Penghu, and the Qing court gave up its suzerainty over Vietnam and lost Vietnam from then on.

This Sino-French War, which was a mixed bag of wins and losses, caused Li Hongzhang to suffer a lot of criticism because of the victory at Zhennan Pass.

Not only was there widespread condemnation in the country, but even famous officials like Zuo Zongtang blamed Li Hongzhang, saying, "Ten French generals are not as bad as one Li Hongzhang."

After that, Li Hongzhang was under tremendous pressure and was even afraid of peace talks. However, no matter how unwilling he was, and even refused on the grounds of health, the court still assigned him to handle all major diplomatic negotiations.

Thinking of this, Teng Yuzhao couldn't help but feel some sympathy for Li Hongzhang.

Teng Yuzao sighed secretly and said, "The French cabinet will not collapse. This time it is a joint action of the great powers. Whether France is willing or not, it cannot withdraw from the coalition alone. However, according to the current situation, it is impossible for France to send more troops to the Far East. Please continue to talk about the situation of other countries."

Yang Shixiang went on to say, "The British also had a strong reaction at home, with calls for more troops, but these were just public opinion appeals, and their cabinet and parliament did not make any moves."

"However, there is an article in The Times saying that the British Army is almost entirely tied up in southern Africa, still fighting the Boers. The military expenditure is huge, and Britain is unlikely to continue to send more troops to the Far East. In addition, there is news that Prime Minister Salisbury has been meeting with MPs frequently recently, and is discussing the possibility of negotiating peace with our court."

"Among the three most powerful countries in Europe, Britain, France, and Germany, the Germans reacted most violently. However, their country is overwhelmingly in favor of expanding the war in the Far East. Currently, Germany's Kaiser Wilhelm II is trying his best to encourage other countries to continue to increase their troops."

"The reactions of Italy and Austria-Hungary, two other European powers, were much more muted, and the few voices that did appear called on their countries to withdraw from the coalition."

"As for the Americans, things were even calmer. Their domestic newspapers even said that since the court and the Marshal were both friendly to the United States, they suggested that President McKinley continue to mediate with other powers to end the war as soon as possible."

"The Washington Post also said that Congress is planning to refuse to approve additional military spending for the Far East war. They believe that these additional military spending should be used to develop the domestic economy that has just recovered from the Great Depression, and should not be thrown to the Far East in vain. They will not agree to let Americans lose their lives in the Far East."

Yang Shixiang took a breath and continued with a worried look on his face, "Like the Germans, the reactions of Japan and Russia are equally fierce."

"Russian Tsar Nicholas II has declared that the defeat in the Far East is not only a shame for Europe, but also for the entire civilized world. Not only must this war continue, but he has also openly declared that he wants to dismember the Qing Dynasty."

"Although the Japanese reaction was equally intense, it was somewhat different from that of Germany and Russia. In Japan, it was mainly the ordinary people and generals who were clamoring to expand the scale of the war, and the Japanese cabinet did not make any move."

Yang Shixiang finished speaking in one breath, took a deep breath, and then continued.

"Marshal, Li Hongzhang asked me to tell you that he believes the most critical thing now is the attitude of the British. As long as the British don't want to fight anymore, the great powers will soon formally propose peace talks." Except for Teng Yuzao, the people in the room only had a vague understanding of foreign affairs. They were skeptical about Li Hongzhang's judgment and even had serious expressions on their faces.

Seeing everyone's expressions, Teng Yuzao smiled and nodded.

"Don't worry, the foreign devils are clamoring loudly, but Li Zhongtang's judgment is correct. The foreign devils will definitely not be able to fight any longer. Peace talks are certain. Maybe within a day or two, they will formally propose it to the court."

Xu Shichang was still a little worried. After a moment's hesitation, he asked, "Marshal, the main forces of the coalition are Germany, Russia, and Japan. Even if the other powers want to negotiate peace, if these three countries insist on fighting, I'm afraid..."

Teng Yuzao said nonchalantly, "I agree with Li Zhongtang's judgment for a reason, and it's not just a random guess."

Seeing that everyone was still skeptical, he knew that after listening to Yang Shixiang's words, they began to doubt what he had said in the past.

"Let me tell you why the great powers want to negotiate peace."

Teng Yuzao lit another cigarette and said, "Let's not talk about the Americans, nor Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. They won't send troops either."

"Although Italy is also a great power, its national strength is much weaker than that of Britain, France, Germany, and Austria. Moreover, their current focus is mainly on Africa, where they want to expand their colonies."

"Although the Austro-Hungarian Empire was the second largest in Europe in terms of territory and the third most populous in Europe, and its military industry was also very strong, it was not absolutely unified under the king. There were many principalities, and it was like a loose sand. It was just a sick cat, and its eyes were on the Balkan Peninsula."

Seeing that several people seemed confused, Teng Yuzao couldn't help but smile bitterly. The people present probably had no idea where the Balkans were.

Teng Yuzao coughed lightly and said, "Let's put it this way. Although their country's territory is known as the second largest in Europe, it is not twice as large as Shanxi. They are now unable to take care of themselves and will definitely not send troops."

Teng Yuzao didn't want to continue explaining the Balkans, and continued.

"The British are still fighting the Boers in southern Africa. The British only have more than 200,000 soldiers. In order to defeat tens of thousands of Boers, the British have transferred almost all of their own land forces. Although the British themselves say that the war is over, in my opinion, the war there will last at least one or two years, and the military expenditure will be tens of millions of pounds, which is 100 to 200 million in silver."

The exchange rate between the pound and silver was about one to six at this time.

"Although the British are very rich, they still have to maintain the world's number one navy. Each warship costs millions or even tens of millions of taels of silver. If they continue to expand the war here, their budget will be stretched. So it's not surprising that the British are trying to propose peace talks."

"Although France is an old power, they just paid Germany 700 million taels of silver, most of which was borrowed from private banks in their country. They still have to pay it back. If they continue to fight, they won't be able to hold on."

"Moreover, the French were forced to join the coalition forces by the British and Germans. They have long been unwilling to continue fighting. Moreover, the current domestic situation does not allow them to continue to increase their troops."

(End of this chapter)