As a mage, I just want to pursue the truth

The price of a commodity is not equal to its actual value.

In the past, only commodities that met basic human needs had corresponding value. With the increase in productivity, more and more needs beyond basic needs have been discovered.

The prices and values ​​of commodities gradually become distorted.

Some goods that were once valuable will lose their value.

There will be a thorough reorganization from the demand side to the supply side.

In such a phenomenon, under the influence of a strong external force, the original balance will be broken in an instant.

"A sharp drop in American technology stocks will definitely bring down the entire American stock market, thereby affecting global stock markets.

We are not immune either.

Because our industries are highly similar to American, the only difference lies in the service objects of Internet companies and the technological content of semiconductor companies.

Although compared with America, our residents’ wealth is more concentrated in real estate, but social security funds and medical insurance funds are also largely concentrated in the stock market.”

China's social security fund began to enter the A-share market a long time ago. The social security fund was established in 2000 and entered the Chinese stock market in 2016.

Over the past 20 years, the trillion-dollar social security fund has achieved an average annualized return of more than 8 percent.

Quite an impressive achievement.

In 2022, China Medical Insurance also announced the establishment of a fund to enter the A-share market. By 2031, the scale of the medical insurance fund entering the A-share market will exceed one trillion yuan.

"Our social security fund and medical insurance fund together exceed 5 trillion yuan.

Such a huge amount of funds will result in massive losses in market value due to stock market turmoil.

This is just the social security and medical insurance funds. There are also big chip funds and equity controlled by various financial state-owned enterprises, which will all suffer losses.

It is very likely to cause serious losses and will definitely cause a stock market crash.

A stock market crash is inevitable.

The sharp drop in market value of technology companies does not mean that resource companies can remain immune.

As more than 90 percent of the consumer electronics industry shrinks, the demand for metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and iron will also shrink.

Tourism will also suffer a fatal blow, and according to our estimates, the size of the tourism industry will shrink to one-tenth of its size.

Resources including oil will also shrink.

A bit like when one whale rises, everything falls, virtual reality will cause a fatal blow to most industries.

The only industry that will prosper is the entertainment industry in the field of virtual reality, which will account for 50% of the society's employment.

Another problem is that without a value anchor to bind young people’s labor, social labor costs will increase greatly.”

As a late-developing country, unlike developed countries, it cannot plunder externally. In order to complete primitive accumulation, it can only "plunder" internally.

Although it sounds cruel, it is not an exaggeration to describe it as plunder.

This is not only true for China, but also for the USSR and Neon in their early stages of completing primitive accumulation of national capital.

China chose to use the scissors gap between agriculture and industry to complete primitive accumulation, which is what we call the urban-rural scissors gap.

The purchase price for agricultural products is not in line with international prices, and then the industrial products are priced higher, so as to complete the primitive accumulation from farmers and use these accumulations to develop the manufacturing industry.

Entering the 21st century, China, which had already completed primitive accumulation, invented a second method to bind the future labor force of young people, that is, real estate.

The mortgage loan for real estate is for 30 years, which means that the consumption capacity of young people for the next 30 years is tied up. This part of consumption capacity is nationalized, and the income from real estate is used to develop infrastructure, technology, military industry, aerospace and other aspects.

A very simple data can show all this. In 2020, China's local land-related taxes were 8.4 trillion yuan, and land transfer revenue was nearly trillion yuan.

Local general public budget expenditure is about 20 trillion yuan, which means that land finance accounts for half of local government expenditure.

It is the land finance that can increase tax revenue without the need for excessive support to local governments.

This game plan will no longer work by 2020. By 2022, people have realized that the myth that real estate prices have only been rising for years is about to be shattered.

This mode of operation can only be maintained between 2022 and 2031.

But even so, it still cannot resist the plummeting housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities and the unsustainable local land finance.

However, from real estate developers to the media, there is still a myth that housing prices in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities will continue to rise.

However, the emergence of virtual reality technology will shatter this myth, and the real estate bubble will be completely burst.

In the past, the urban-rural gap was a means of learning from the USSR, while later real estate was a path that was half borrowed from Singapore and Hong Kong and half developed on its own.

It took many years of exploration to gradually form an excellent model for making money in real estate.

You can choose not to play the game of cutting leeks in the stock market, but you have to play the game of cutting leeks in the real estate market.

But later the young people realized that as long as they didn’t have offspring, they could stop playing this game.

When the real estate bubble bursts and this means is lost forever in the future, what will be the next option?
This takes time to think.

"Virtual reality technology will make the land finance model, which has already come to the end of history and completed its historical significance, completely exit the stage of history.

However, what kind of new financial resources do we need to develop in the future and how to achieve a good financial balance between the central and local governments is an extremely difficult question.

Virtual reality technology will bring many unexpected variables.”

Internal harvesting is one way, and it is an inevitable way for developing countries to achieve industrialization. If the era of external plunder is missed, it is missed.

Many countries have come this way.

Not all countries are as blessed as America, which has seized almost all the advantages of time and place. It completed a wave of overseas production capacity harvesting during the First World War, and completed another wave of economic globalization during the Second World War.

In the subsequent petrodollar system, currency globalization was achieved, laying the foundation for reaping the world in the following decades when the country ran out of money.

China's support for Africa and debt relief were also learned from America, including America's Marshall Plan.

The only difference is that China only has carrots but no sticks, while America has both.

“So I think virtual reality technology is too advanced for us.

It will bring about fundamental changes in everything, and we are totally unprepared for it in our current state.”

While this famous Chinese economist was speaking, the bigwigs were also communicating from time to time.

“I don’t know what happened, but I still want to say that if it really happened, I think we should promote it instead of refrigerating it.

For China, the saddest thing is the lack of change, which means that we can only compete within the framework built by Western countries.

On the contrary, if it is a revolutionary change like virtual reality technology, we are not prepared, and other countries are even less prepared.

Only then will we have a chance to bypass the numerous obstacles set by America and resume fair competition." The economist realized that something big was going to happen when he entered today's meeting.

The bigwigs present did not sit in their seats expressionlessly as usual, but were communicating frequently.

This was something he had never encountered before.

Therefore, he had a hunch that China had really mastered virtual reality technology.

He didn't want to say the last part, but considering that this was indeed the only chance to achieve China's strategic goals without bloodshed, he said it anyway.

You should know that it is much easier to take over Taiwan without TSMC than Taiwan with TSMC.

Moreover, after taking it over, the burden on China will be lighter.

Taiwan, which has the semiconductor industry, has a per capita GDP of 3.3 yuan, while Taiwan without the semiconductor industry would have a per capita GDP of less than half of that.

Although the semiconductor industry only accounts for 20% of Taiwan's GDP, a 20% reduction in GDP will have an impact on all industries, with the consumer industry being the first to be hit.

"Mr. Lin, please follow me. I'm sorry that you still can't contact the outside world during this period.

You will have to wait for the final result before you can regain your freedom. We have already communicated with your family."

The economist's heart tightened, as he had originally wanted to reallocate his assets as soon as the situation was resolved.

Things that need to be sold at a discount should be sold quickly.

A helpless thought flashed through his mind, and he knew that his plan would fail.

You have to know that economists have a lot of assets, especially economists of this level, who allocate assets globally.

Their identities originally existed in the gray area between the market and the system.

Being too far away from the system, it is impossible to fully understand the government's intentions and specific circumstances, and most of China's statistical data will be processed technically.

It would be fine if all data were processed using the same method, but the problem is that different data require different technical processing methods.

In fact, if you are careful, it is easy to find loopholes in the official data.

If it is too far away from the market, it will be out of touch with reality, for example, asking the unemployed to drive for Didi and renting out the extra houses.

The meeting officially began after experts and scholars from different fields finished their reports.

Zheng Li was not sure because their conference room was physically isolated from all communication equipment and there were not even any trees around.

Just to prevent eavesdropping by unknown biotechnology.

Moreover, in order to prevent Zheng Li from knowing, even the scientists conducting the research were not mages.

But Zheng Li wouldn't care.

Because the country that he would cooperate with doesn't necessarily have to be China, because there are too many countries on this planet.

Not all countries have the same troubles as China.

The world is not only populated by developed countries, nor is it only populated by China. There are many countries in the world that have nothing to lose.

China is Zheng Li’s first choice because China is strong enough to promote it most quickly.

As a model project for cooperation between magic civilization and Blue Star civilization.

The second target is Singapore, the boat is small and easy to turn around.

"Okay, everyone, tell us what you think. Do you want to cooperate with Clark?"

“I think there are too many unknown risks, both economically and in terms of social stability.

What Professor Lin just said is only part of the story. In addition to the inability to maintain local land finance, our financial system will face a complete collapse.

It's not just the market capitalization of listed companies that is being re-estimated.

All major banks will have a large amount of bad debts.

First, the real estate industry obtains financing through ABS, domestic and foreign bond financing, or traditional credit channels, with a total amount of about 6 trillion RMB.

Our work over the past five years has been centered around removing this mine.

As we are approaching the eve of the bomb disposal, we cannot deal with this bomb in a short period of time. According to the internal plan of the central bank, we will need at least three years.

These are bad debts at the corporate level, and Professor Lin has just explained the local financial aspects clearly enough.

There are also personal housing mortgage loans. The amount of personal housing mortgage loans nationwide is around 30 trillion RMB.

If the value of houses collapses, this will be a very scary bomb. It has happened before, but by splitting them up, we have limited each bombing to a very small range.

But virtual reality technology will trigger a tsunami, and we cannot split it up and limit it to a small range.

From local village banks to city commercial banks, to commercial banks, and even large state-owned banks, no bank can withstand this risk.

I have nothing against working with Clark, but the time is not right now.

We are not prepared now.

The time is too short, we can go and negotiate with him.

It will take at least three years just to prevent the loss of value of various types of state-owned assets and keep the losses within a very small range.

In addition to the economic risks, there are also risks associated with virtual reality technology itself.

I think everyone can imagine the risks of completely handing over our brain to aliens.

What if Clark could influence every user with the help of virtual reality equipment?
I believe that the other party is unlikely to take action on the security of the virtual reality device itself.

The product should be safe and reliable and have no impact on human health.

After all, it is such a large-scale opening up. If we use the Yangtze River Delta as a pilot area first, any problems will be easily exposed.

But what if it is some psychological influence, ranging from suggestion at the mildest to brainwashing at the worst?
The uncontrollable risks are too high.”

China's economy and real estate are too deeply tied together, from local governments to major banks to municipal investment platform companies.

“I think we can seize this opportunity.

If you miss this opportunity, when will the next one come?
What Clark can show off now is virtual reality technology. Do you know how many technologies he has that he hasn’t shown off?
In this cooperation, it will not be transferred because of our will. There is only one Clark, but there are many countries for him to choose from.

It's not an equal trade.

We cannot achieve revival without taking risks.”